打擊ISIS不能孤立俄羅斯 Opponents of Isis must influence not isolate Russia

A Russian military aircraft is shot down by a missile fired from a Turkish aircraft. Representatives of Nato members gather for an “extraordinary meeting” to discuss the incident. It feels like the 1950s, cold war and all — but appearances are deceiving.

一架俄羅斯戰機被土耳其戰機發射的導彈擊落。北約(Nato)成員國代表召開“特別會議”討論這起事件。這讓人感覺像是上世紀50年代、冷戰之類——但表象是誤導人的。

This is not yet a crisis, and if what took place is allowed to fester — or worse yet escalate, — Isis will be the big winner. Turkey is unlikely to fall out with Russia, on which it depends for gas. But this distraction might sidetrack the effort to build a better international response to Isis in the wake of the Paris attacks.

這件事還未演化成一場危機，但如果讓已經發生的情況繼續惡化甚至升級，那麼“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)將成爲大贏家。依靠俄羅斯提供天然氣的土耳其不太可能與之鬧僵。但這件分散注意力的事可能會使巴黎恐襲發生後構建打擊ISIS更強有力國際陣線的努力偏離軌道。

Today’s Russia is half the size of the Soviet Union. It has a shrinking economy dependent on oil exports, and is motivated not by an ideology with global pretensions but by nationalism fused with the persona of President Vladimir Putin. Nothing links its aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine with what is happening in the Middle East other than Mr Putin’s search for a bigger role for his country, which plays well at home. Perspective is called for. Russia is not a superpower. The threat it poses at times to western interests should be dealt with but not exaggerated.

如今的俄羅斯只有蘇聯版圖的一半大小。依賴石油出口的該國經濟正在萎縮，其外交政策的驅動力不再來自具有全球野心的意識形態，而是來自民族主義與總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)的形象的融合。俄羅斯對克里米亞及烏克蘭東部的入侵行爲與中東正在發生的事情並無關聯，但貫穿這一切的主線是普京爲他的國家尋覓更大角色，這在國內很好使。我們需要客觀。俄羅斯不再是超級大國。它對西方利益不時構成的威脅應當得到應對，但不應被誇大。

Nor is Turkey the stalwart Nato partner it once was. Today’s Turkey is more an ally in name than in fact. It is hard to escape the irony that Turkey’s president shares many of the same illiberal tendencies as his Russian counterpart. More important, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey does not share US and western objectives in the Middle East. Yes, Turkey has allowed US aircraft to use its air base at Incirlik to attack Isis, but taking on Isis is hardly its priority. Its government is opposed to Kurdish nationalism and is doing what it can to weaken the Kurds — the closest the US and its allies have to a military partner on the ground in Iraq and Syria against Isis. Turkey has done little to stanch the flow of foreign recruits to Isis, who cross its territory en route to Syria.

土耳其也不再是以前那個堅定的北約夥伴了。如今的土耳其在更大程度上是名義上的盟國。難以迴避的諷刺意味在於，土耳其總統與普京有很多共同的反自由主義傾向。更重要的是，雷傑普吠伊普埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)領導下的土耳其並不認可美國及西方在中東的目標。沒錯，土耳其允許美國飛機使用位於因切利克(Incirlik)的空軍基地打擊ISIS，但對抗ISIS並非安卡拉的政策重點。土耳其政府反對庫爾德民族主義，正在盡一切可能削弱庫爾德人，而後者是美國及其盟友在伊拉克和敘利亞打擊ISIS的作戰中最近似於第一線軍事夥伴的力量。土耳其並未採取措施阻止ISIS招募的外國新兵經由該國前往敘利亞。

So what should the US and European Nato members do? It would help not to overreact to what has taken place or to treat Russia as an implacable foe. There is much about Russian policy in Syria that deserves criticism, from its apparently uncritical support of President Bashar al-Assad to attacks on regime opponents other than Isis. But Russian efforts to shore up the regime are not entirely counterproductive. It is not in the west’s interest to see the regime ousted before a viable alternative is ready to step in. Isis, which so much on perceptions of its momentum and inevitability, is not in a position to gain control over Damascus and declare a caliphate in reality as well as name.

那麼美國和歐洲的北約成員國該做些什麼呢？有益的做法是避免對已經發生的事反應過度，也不要將俄羅斯當成不共戴天的敵人。俄羅斯對敘利亞的許多政策都值得批評，包括它對敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)顯然不加批判地支持，以及打擊阿薩德政權的反對者而不是ISIS。但俄羅斯努力支撐阿薩德政權並不是完全幫倒忙。在一個可行的替代政權準備好執政之前就推翻阿薩德政權，並不符合西方的利益。ISIS在很大程度上依賴於人們對其氣勢和不可阻擋的觀感，它還沒有能力掌控大馬士革，它自封的“哈里發”只是名義上的，而不是現實的。

There is also the prospect that Russian policy might evolve. Mr Putin and Russia paid a price for supporting Mr Assad when an Isis bomb brought down a Russian civilian airliner over Egypt. It is probably only a matter of time before something akin to what happened in Paris happens in Moscow. This would be intolerable for Mr Putin, who might want to redirect his country’s policy.

而且俄羅斯的政策還有演變的可能。當ISIS的炸彈在埃及上空導致俄羅斯一架民航客機墜毀時，普京和俄羅斯爲支持阿薩德付出了代價。莫斯科遭遇類似於巴黎的恐怖襲擊可能只是時間問題。這對普京將是無法忍受的，他有可能會改變國家政策方向。

The conclusion is that the US, Europe and the Arab countries opposing Isis should use this incident as an opportunity to further influence what Russia does, not to isolate or humiliate it. Two issues should take precedence. First, there should be intensified talks with Russia on co-ordinating what various militaries are doing. The focus must be on weakening Isis. If this means making Russia a de facto member of the coalition of the willing that French President Hollande is assembling, so be it. It is not necessary to agree on everything in order to agree on some things.

這一切的結論是，美國、歐洲和反對ISIS的阿拉伯國家應利用此次事件作爲契機，進一步影響俄羅斯的政策，而不是孤立或羞辱它。有兩個問題應該優先考慮。首先，應該與俄羅斯加強商談，協調各國軍隊的行動。重點必須是削弱ISIS。如果這意味着俄羅斯成爲法國總統弗朗索瓦·奧朗德( Hollande)正在打造的自願聯盟的一員，那也沒什麼不好。爲了在某些事情上達成一致，沒必要同意一切。

Second, diplomacy should focus on a plan for a new government in Damascus. It is possible to pursue an anti-Isis strategy with Mr Assad in power, but his being there is a major liability, one that precludes military co-operation with the government and helps Isis to recruit. A diplomatic effort with Russia in a central role would be worth supporting if it led to Mr Assad taking up residence in a dacha outside Moscow.

其次，外交活動應當聚焦於在大馬士革建立一個新政府的計劃。在阿薩德繼續掌權的情況下推行一項打擊ISIS的戰略是可行的，但他在臺上是一個很大的不利因素，使西方不可能與敘利亞政府進行軍事合作，還幫助ISIS招募新兵。如果俄羅斯能讓阿薩德自願住到莫斯科郊外的別墅裏，那麼讓俄羅斯扮演中心角色的外交努力就是值得支持的。