聯軍空襲未能削弱ISIS財力

A year of bombing, more than 10,600 strikes and a coalition of more than 60 countries have failed to make a significant dent in Isis’s war chest, with revenues from oil, its main source of income, generating as much as $500m a year.

一年的轟炸，超過10600次攻擊，加上一支由60多個國家組成的聯軍，始終沒能對“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的戰爭金庫造成重創，因爲ISIS每年的石油收入高達5億美元。石油是ISIS的主要收入來源。

Production figures from workers at oilfields, checked against western intelligence estimates, indicates as much as 34,000-40,000 barrels a day are being produced in Isis-controlled territory, generating up to $1.53m a day.

來自油田工人的生產數據（對照西方的情報估計之後）顯示，在ISIS控制的區域，每日石油產量爲3.4萬至4萬桶，每日創收最高達153萬美元。

In a striking admission of failure in the US-led fight against Isis, senior western diplomats and intelligence officials say a recent reassessment of the jihadis’ financial strength suggests it has yet to be depleted in a way that hampers their operations.

西方高級外交官和情報官表示，近來對聖戰分子財力的重估顯示，他們並未被削弱到作戰行動受限的地步。對美國領導的對ISIS的打擊來說，這是一次引人注目的承認失敗。

It is a finding corroborated in dozens of interviews with people in Syria and Iraq involved with the Isis moneymaking machine, as part of an investigation by the Financial Times. Isis income from oil exceeds revenue from other sources such as taxation, extortion and the trade in stolen antiquities.

這一結論得到英國《金融時報》一項調查中數十次採訪的證實。英國《金融時報》採訪了敘利亞和伊拉克境內與ISIS賺錢機器相關的人士。ISIS的石油收入超過了來自稅收、勒索和買賣盜竊文物等其他途徑的收入。

Senior figures in the US-led coalition battling Isis, in Europe, the Middle East and Washington, say it has adapted its operations to air strikes and runs its trade network with impunity, siphoning millions from oil wells as if it were a national oil company. “This year, we calculated they made $40m [from oil] in just one month,” said a US official. “That is even after the air strikes.”

聯軍、歐洲、中東和華盛頓方面的高官表示，ISIS已針對空襲調整了作戰方式，並經營着逍遙法外的貿易網，從油井中攫取了鉅款，彷彿自己是一家國家石油公司。“今年，我們估計他們一個月就能（從石油中）賺到4000萬美元，”一名美國官員表示，“即便在空襲之後也是如此。”

The resilience of Isis’s oil business in the face of a coalition bombing campaign that has repeatedly targeted the group’s refineries and pipelines underlines the challenge its adversaries face in dislodging it from power.

在聯軍對ISIS的煉油廠和石油管道連番轟炸之後，ISIS的石油生意仍然活躍，這凸顯了其對手在削弱其實力時面臨的挑戰。

It is a contrast to the success the US and its allies enjoyed in degrading the financial clout of al-Qaeda in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Unlike its rival, Isis can generate most of the money it needs from within its borders and does not depend on covert foreign fundraising.

這與“九一一”事件後美國及其盟國在削弱基地組織(al-Qaeda)財力時取得的成功形成了反差。跟基地組織不同的是，ISIS能從控制區域內產生所需的多數資金，而且並不依賴祕密的外部籌款。

Oil is now refined in hundreds of small makeshift facilities, locals close to the Syrian fields say, and in some cases is simply burnt in open pits. “We haven’t been as disruptive in their oil revenues as we may have hoped,” said a senior European intelligence official. “They are able to effect repairs to everything we have hit.”

接近敘利亞油田的當地人表示，石油如今是通過數百個小型臨時設施煉製出來的，有些情況下，原油就在露天礦坑裏燒。“我們沒能像預想那樣破壞他們的石油收入，”一名歐洲高級情報官表示，“無論我們摧毀什麼，他們都能有效地修復。”

Many of the dozens of remaining facilities are operated by local people unaffiliated to the terrorist group. The truckers who move crude oil and refined products around Isis territory — whose convoys are often visible from the air — are also not necessarily Isis members, in a dilemma for military planners. “The transport system [for oil] is indistinguishable from other regular trucks,” said one senior western diplomat. “So we can’t bomb them.”

在數十處保留下來的設施中，有很多處的經營者是不隸屬於ISIS恐怖組織的當地人。在ISIS控制區內各處運送原油和成品油的卡車司機——從空中經常可以看到他們的車隊——未必是ISIS的成員，這讓軍事策劃人員左右兩難。“（石油）運輸系統跟其他常規卡車難以區分，”一名西方高級外交官表示，“所以我們不能對它們實施轟炸。”

“You kill the driver, you get a family of jihadis,” he said. “You run the risk of radicalising the population.”

“你炸死了司機，就把他全家人都變成了聖戰分子。”他說，“你面臨着把所有人都變成激進分子的風險。”

Interrupting the flow of oil across Isis borders has had limited effect. There is still a huge domestic market over which Isis holds a monopoly. “They are generating an awful lot of money internally,” said the US official.

切斷ISIS跨境石油流動產生的效果有限。ISIS境內仍有很大的市場，而ISIS在其中享有壟斷地位。“他們在境內賺到了大量的收入，”這位美國官員表示。

Among options considered by the coalition are supplying oil at cheaper prices to non-Isis groups in Syria or flooding the northern Iraqi market with cheap crude to undercut the jihadis.

聯軍考慮的選項包括，以更低價格向敘利亞境內的非ISIS組織供應石油，或者向伊拉克北部市場大舉供應廉價原油，與聖戰分子打價格戰。

Western diplomats and intelligence officials are confident Isis’s finances will reach a “pinch point” — though when is still unclear.

西方外交官和情報官員相信，ISIS的財力會有拮据的那一刻——儘管那一刻何時到來還不知道。

“A year ago I would have hoped it would have been about now,” said the senior intelligence official. “But we have reassessed. They are still in a better place. They still also have a large amount of residual reserves and cash.”

“一年前，我會認爲今天大概就是那一刻，”上述高級情報官表示。“但我們進行了重估。他們的處境仍好於我們的預期。他們也仍擁有大量的剩餘儲備和現金。”