朝鮮發展核武削弱其陸軍戰鬥力

When North Korea deployed hundreds of artillery units, submarines and soldiers to take part in its largest live-fire drill, it was intended as a chilling display of the reclusive regime’s military might.

朝鮮部署數百炮兵部隊、潛艇和士兵舉行最大規模實彈演習時，本意是展示這一封閉政權的軍事力量，起到令外界膽寒的效果。

The country boasts the world’s fourth-largest standing army, with more than 1m troops as well as 7m reserves, and last week’s military exercise came as US President Donald Trump ramped up the pressure on Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programmes.

該國號稱擁有世界上第四大常備陸軍，現役軍人超100萬，預備役軍人達700萬。上週，在美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)因朝鮮核武器與導彈計劃問題而對其加大壓力之際，朝鮮舉行了軍事演習。

But officials and experts say the apparently formidable force is beset by an array of problems, from fuel shortages to ageing equipment, that would choke its capabilities in the event of prolonged conflict with the US and its allies.

但官員和專家表示，這支表面上強大的軍隊受到從燃料短缺到設備老化的一系列問題的削弱。如果與美國及其盟國發生長期衝突，這些問題將制約朝鮮的制勝能力。

“Once the Korean People’s Army starts or stumbles into a decisive conventional war, they will run out of something critical like fuel or bullets or parts in 30 days tops,” says one former US military officer with knowledge of North Korea. “Based on numbers from a corps-sized unit I saw, it may even be as early as two weeks.”

“一旦朝鮮人民軍(KPA)發動或陷入一場決定性的常規戰爭，不出30天，燃料、子彈或部件等關鍵物資就會出現短缺，”一位瞭解朝鮮的前美國軍官說，“從我看到的一個軍級單位的數據來判斷，也許甚至是不出兩週。”

Takashi Furuyama, a retired Japanese intelligence officer and military attaché in Seoul, says a ramp-up in Pyongyang’s weapons programmes in recent years has left the army a diminished force.

退休的日本情報官員、駐首爾武官Takashi Furuyama表示，近年來朝鮮加大開發核武器計劃，已導致朝鮮陸軍實力下降。

“Given the diversion of resources to missiles and nuclear weaponry, I think their ability to fight a war may be a third or a quarter of what it was,” he says.

“鑑於各種資源嚮導彈與核武器傾斜，我認爲，他們打一場戰爭的能力只有過去的三分之一或四分之一，”他說。

Pyongyang’s fuel dependency was thrown into stark relief last week when petrol prices in the isolated nation shot up more than 80 per cent amid talk that China — a vital ally and lifeline — could cut supply.

上週，朝鮮在能源上對外依賴的程度完全暴露了出來，當時這個孤立國家的汽油價格猛漲逾80%——傳言朝鮮的關鍵盟國、爲其供應必需物資的中國可能切斷供給。

Its conventional military hardware — much of which was produced by the Soviet Union and China during the cold war — is also creaking with age.

朝鮮的常規軍事裝備也嚴重老舊——大部分是蘇聯和中國在冷戰期間生產的。

According to a 2015 US defence department report: “The KPA has not acquired new fighter aircraft in decades, relies on older air defence systems, lacks ballistic missile defence, its Navy does not train for blue-water operations, and recently unveiled artillery systems include tractor-towed rocket launchers.”

根據2015年美國國防部的一份報告：“朝鮮人民軍已經幾十年沒有采購新戰鬥機，依賴老舊的防空系統，缺少彈道導彈防禦能力，其海軍沒受過藍海作戰訓練，近期曝光的火炮系統使用拖拉機牽引火箭發射裝置。”

Experts say Kim Jong Un’s regime knows it is unlikely to win any conventional conflict and has instead embarked on a strategy of deterrence to ensure its survival.

專家們表示，金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權知道，自己不大可能打贏任何常規衝突，並轉而採取了一種威懾戰略來確保自己的生存。

The policy uses a dual-prong approach of developing strategic nuclear weapons while maintaining a large, forward deployed conventional force that can pose an immediate threat to South Korea.

這一政策使用一種雙頭並進的方法，既發展戰略核武器，又維持一支大規模、前沿部署的常規部隊——該部隊可以對韓國構成直接威脅。

The defence report says: “These two aspects of its military strategy are meant to be mutually supporting; the threat posed by one is employed to deter an attack on the other.”

美國國防部報告稱：“朝鮮軍事戰略的兩個方面意在相互支持；一方面產生的威脅，被用於阻止自己在另一方面遭到攻擊。”

The set-up presents Mr Trump with a dilemma. Washington maintains that all options, including military strikes, are on the table.

這種安排讓特朗普面臨一種兩難處境。華盛頓方面堅持認爲，所有選項——包括軍事打擊——都在討論之列。

“If he does a nuclear test, I will not be happy,” Mr Trump said in an interview with CBS News aired Sunday. Asked if this meant military action, the president replied: “I don’t know. I mean, we’ll see.”

“如果他進行核試驗，我會不高興，”特朗普在接受美國哥倫比亞廣播公司新聞臺(CBS News)採訪時說。該採訪內容已於上週日播放。在被問及這是否指軍事行動時，這位總統回答說：“我不知道。我的意思是，看吧。”

Mr Trump warned on Friday that there was a chance the US “could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea.”

特朗普上週五警告稱，美國“最終有可能與朝鮮發生非常、非常重大的衝突”。

However, his strategic calculus will be influenced by the likelihood of retaliatory strikes on the US military, as well as domestic civilians, in South Korea and Japan.

然而，他的戰略考量將受到一種可能性的影響，即駐韓國和日本的美軍以及韓日兩國平民遭受報復性打擊。

The rapid development of Pyongyang’s ballistic weapons programmes has left both nations vulnerable to medium-range missiles, while North Korea’s heavy — and heavily fortified — artillery imperil greater Seoul’s 20m inhabitants. Pyongyang test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday, but US and South Korean officials said it appeared to have failed.

平壤彈道武器計劃的快速研發將日韓兩國置於中程導彈威脅之下，而朝鮮重重防護的重型火炮隨時可以危及大首爾地區2000萬民衆的性命。平壤上週六試射了一枚彈道導彈，但美、韓官員表示，試射似乎失敗了。

“They have been improving the accuracy of all of their ballistic missiles,” says Hideaki Kaneda, a retired Japanese vice-admiral and now director of the Okazaki Institute. He estimates that the [medium-range] Nodong missile is now accurate to within 100m — maybe as little as 50m.

日本退役海將、現任東京岡崎研究所(Okazaki Institute)理事的金田秀昭(Hideaki Kaneda)說：“他們一直在提高本國所有彈道導彈的精確度。”他估計，（中程）“蘆洞”(Nodong)導彈現在可以精確到100米（可能甚至50米）以內。

Weapons alone, however, are unlikely to win North Korea a war.

然而，朝鮮不大可能單靠武器打贏戰爭。

Even if the North destroyed every runway at US bases in the South, “two carrier strike groups and two attack submarines can mount enough sorties and firepower to neutralise a couple of hundred North Korean above-ground targets”, a former US military officer said.

即使朝鮮摧毀駐韓美軍基地的所有飛機跑道，“兩個航母戰鬥羣和兩艘攻擊型潛艇的飛機和彈藥足以摧毀朝鮮數百個地面目標”，一位美國退役軍官表示。

North Korea maintains about 8,600 artillery units, 5,500 multiple rocket launchers and 4,300 tanks, according to a recent white paper by the South Korean defence ministry — although many are outdated and slow to reload and fire.

韓國國防部最近發佈的一份白皮書稱，朝鮮擁有約8600個炮兵單位、5500座多管火箭炮以及4300輛坦克——儘管許多已經過時，裝填彈藥和發射速度緩慢。

“That’s why the North focuses on reinforcing asymmetric forces such as nuclear weapons and missiles in order to secure military superiority over South Korea,” says Yang Wook, a senior researcher at the Korea Defence and Security Forum.

“這就是朝鮮之所以一心加強核武器和導彈等非對稱力量、以確保對韓國的軍事優勢的原因，”韓國國防與安全論壇(Korea Defence and Security Forum)高級研究員Yang Wook說。

In September Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test and many expect another imminently.

去年9月，平壤進行了第五次核試驗，而許多人預計下一次核試驗就在眼前。

According to Shea Cotton, a researcher at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, North Korea has begun testing ballistic missiles from new locations, suggesting the launches are operational rather than developmental.

位於美國蒙特雷(Monterey)的防擴散研究中心(Center for Nonproliferation Studies)研究員謝伊?科頓(Shea Cotton)表示，朝鮮已經開始從新的地點測試彈道導彈，這表明發射已進入實操階段，而非開發階段。

“Why would Kim Jong Un drag his entourage all over the country to a wide array of different sites to watch tests? The answer is that North Korea is training its missile units for nuclear war.”

“爲什麼金正恩帶着隨從到全國各地各種不同地點觀看試射？答案是，朝鮮正在爲進行核戰訓練導彈部隊。”

North Korea is also believed to maintain up to 5,000 tonnes of chemical weapons, including chlorine, sarin and VX — used most recently in the assassination of Mr Kim’s brother, Kim Jong Nam, in March.

據信，朝鮮還擁有最多達5000噸化學武器，包括氯氣、沙林毒氣和VX神經毒劑——後者今年3月被用於暗殺金正恩之兄金正男(Kim Jong Nam)。

However, few believe North Korea would employ its weapons of mass destruction as an offensive tactic as such a move would trigger a military response likely to bring about Mr Kim’s overthrow.

然而，幾乎沒有人相信朝鮮會利用大規模殺傷性武器作爲進攻手段，因爲這樣做將引發一場很可能導致金正恩倒臺的軍事回擊。

Instead, Pyongyang is expected to continue its cycle of coercion through limited, albeit potentially lethal, provocations.

相反，預計平壤將會繼續一輪輪地通過有限度（儘管可能危害極大的）各種挑釁來進行要挾。