面對威脅,金正恩再次發飆
RUMOURS of fatherhood, and the thrill of having Dennis Rodman, a 51-year-old American basketball has-been, as a new best friend, have done little to mellow Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader. Once again relations between his family’s regime and the outside world have returned to the dangerous script of nuclear provocation, sanctions and threats of war.
On March 6th Kyodo, a Japanese news agency, reported that camouflage netting was being thrown over buses and trains in Pyongyang in readiness for conflict. A day earlier the regime reheated old threats, as America proposed a resolution to the UN Security Council, stiffening sanctions against North Korea for its third nuclear test on February 12th. It said it would scrap the 1953 armistice agreement with America that ended the Korean war (did it forget that it had already scrapped it, in 2009?). It cut off a hotline with American troops in South Korea. And it once again threatened nuclear attack.
3月6日，據一家日本新聞中心日本共同社報道，平壤的公共汽車和火車都已進入了僞裝，爲突發鬥爭做準備。一天前，美國向聯合國安理會發起一項決議，倡議對朝鮮2月12日進行的第三次核試驗進行嚴厲制裁，這重燃了朝鮮舊時的威脅。朝鮮表示將摒棄1953年與美國簽訂的結束朝鮮戰爭的停戰協議（朝鮮已於2009年撕毀了該項協定）。朝方切斷了位於韓國的與美國軍隊的服務電話。此外，朝方再次以核攻擊發起威脅。Its anger appeared to have been provoked as much by land, sea and air drills involving American and South Korean forces near the Korean peninsula, which are due to intensify from March 11th, as by the proposed sanctions. Yonhap, a Seoul-based news agency, said South Korea is bracing itself for rival North Korean exercises next week. In a sign of escalating tension, South Korea’s army said on March 6th that it might attack the North’s commanders if provoked—a rare threat directed at the regime’s top brass.
朝方的反應激起了美韓軍隊在朝鮮半島周圍的海陸空軍演，由於制裁的提出，軍演會在3月11日加強。韓國新聞社韓國聯合通訊社表示，韓國已經準備好應對下週朝鮮的演習。韓國軍方表示，如遭挑釁，韓方將在3月6日襲擊朝鮮指揮官，這是兩方關係進一步升級的信號，也是鮮有的向政權高層發起威脅的現象。
Sanctions, which America hopes will be approved this week, are aimed at further curbing the North’s nuclear programme. They will put a stronger focus on financial transactions between North Korea and the rest of the world, including what some suspect are “suitcases of cash” crossing from North Korea into China. They will step up monitoring of its foreign emissaries suspected of arms negotiations, and list for the first time the goodies said to be coveted by Mr Kim’s inner circle, such as yachts, jewellery, luxury vehicles and racing cars. Previously, it was up to each state to draw up a list of its own. And the resolution will oblige states to check North Korean transport vessels suspected of ferrying contraband.
美方希望本週內安理會將通過該項制裁，以抑制朝鮮進一步的核項目。制裁的重點將放在朝鮮與其他國家的金融交易，其中包括有些人懷疑的中朝“現金交易”。制裁還包括監督外國間諜與朝進行的武器談判，還有金正恩內部成員首度透露的欲交易商品，例如遊艇、珠寶、豪車和賽車。此前，決議還規定讓每個國家單獨提交一份列表。這份決議將敦促各個國家檢查是否將違禁運送品運到了朝鮮。UN sanctions imposed after North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 have been leaky. Since then the regime’s nuclear and ballistic-missile programmes have advanced, and it is believed to have diversified its nuclear fuel beyond its dwindling stock of plutonium by enriching uranium.
聯合國於2006年對朝鮮首度核試驗發起的制裁漏洞重重。自此，朝鮮的核彈及彈道導彈項目不斷髮展。外界認爲，朝鮮除了儲存鈈，濃縮鈾外還有多種核燃料。Though China has backed the past three sets of sanctions, bilateral trade between the two countries has soared. America sent the current draft after three weeks of talks involving China, and some American experts still think China would only enforce it half-heartedly. John Delury of Yonsei University in Seoul is particularly sceptical about hopes that the Chinese will intercept any cash crossing the North Korean border. “Whatever way the language of the sanctions is tweaked, it’s an implementation issue, and China’s not going to turn up the heat that much.”
儘管中國對先前的三套制裁均表示了支持，但兩國的貿易仍飛昇。爲期三週的會談後，美國發出了這項包括中國的現行草案。但仍有一些專家認爲中國對決議半推半就。韓國延世大學的John Delury尤其持懷疑態度，他希望中國能終止朝鮮邊境的現金運輸行爲。“無論制裁中的語言如何強硬，這種就是個行動力的問題。中國絕不會挑起這麼大的矛盾。”On March 7th the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong daily, quoted a senior Chinese diplomat as contradicting reports that a tentative deal had been struck between America and China. Some Chinese analysts, however, say they expect strong enforcement. Jin Canrong of Renmin University said North Korea’s “recent misbehaviour” had strengthened the voices of those in China wanting the government to take a tougher line against its unruly nuclear-armed ally.
3月7日，一份香港日報《南華早報》就中美兩國達成暫時性協議的爭議報道引用了中國高層外交官的話。一些中方分析師認爲，中方的執行力較強。人民大學的金燦榮認爲，朝鮮的“近期不當行爲”引發了國內對政府就不當的核武器措施採取更強硬措施的強烈呼聲。Sometimes, after North Korea and its foes have ramped up the rhetoric, comes a thaw in tensions. But not always. In 2010 the North carried out two deadly attacks against South Korean targets. With the young Mr Kim flexing his muscles in Pyongyang and a new South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, in Seoul, the risks of miscalculation are heightened.
有時，朝鮮和其敵對國家進行言語衝突後就進入緊張狀態。但也有例外。2010年，朝鮮對韓國目標物進行兩次致命攻擊。金正恩在平壤顯示了其實力，韓國的新任總統朴槿惠隨即在首爾上任，可能升級對危機錯誤的估計。
