世界可以實現脫碳目標 World powers are aligned and change is possible

In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change rightly called for a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous climate change. The UN Climate talks that have just begun in Paris can and should underpin the decarbonisation of the global economy needed to meet that goal.

1992年，《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》(UNFCCC)提出了一項正確的呼籲，即將溫室氣體濃度穩定在一個水平上，以防止危險的氣候變化。剛剛在巴黎啓動的聯合國氣候談判能夠而且也應該鞏固全球經濟脫碳，以實現這一目標。

Signatories to the convention have agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2C, or 1.5C if the emerging science justifies it. To have a two-thirds probability of meeting the 2C target, total CO emissions between 2011 and 2100 have to be less than 950bn tons. Emissions from energy need to fall from about 35bn tons this year to 10-15bn tons by 2050, and to zero by about 2070.

公約簽署國已達成共識，將氣溫上升幅度限制在2攝氏度以內，或者（如果新興科學能夠證明這個數字合理）1.5攝氏度以內。要使實現“2度”目標的可能性達到三分之二，2011年到2100年的總二氧化碳排放量就必須少於9500億噸。到2050年，能源方面的排放量需要從今年的大約350億噸下降到100億至150億噸，並在2070年前後達到接近零排放的水平。

Such decarbonisation is achievable with current technologies. The cost will be modest assuming significant technological improvements that are within reach, through a combination of targeted research and learning by doing.

當前的技術是能夠實現這一脫碳目標的。假如技術能夠取得長足的進步，成本將不會太高。而通過針對性研究和邊做邊學，這樣的技術進步也在我們力所能及的範圍內。

A global collaboration of energy research teams has identified the steps that need to be taken by 16 countries that are major emitters. The proposals all involve better energy efficiency, through smart buildings, power grids and transport. They rely on low-carbon power, such as wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal or hydroelectric. They entail eliminating carbon-based fuels: vehicles and planes must switch to electricity, hydrogen fuel cells or advanced biofuels; industry must swap heating oil for electricity and fuel cells.

全球多個能源研究團隊通過合作確定了16個主要排放國需要採取的措施。這些建議都涉及通過智能建築、電網和運輸實現更高能效；依賴風能、太陽能、核能、地熱能或者水力發電等低碳能源；消除碳基燃料：車輛和飛機需要切換到電力、氫燃料電池或者更先進的生物燃料；工業必須將燃油換成電力和燃料電池。

As for the technology, one priority is improved batteries for home appliances, electric vehicles and electricity grids. Another is carbon capture, and a way to use carbon dioxide to make synthetic fuels using renewable energy. A third is “smart” electricity grids, based on metering and feedback. Finally, publicly accepted nuclear power.

至於技術方面，一個優先事項是改善家用電器電池、電動汽車和電網。另一項是碳捕獲，以及利用二氧化碳和可再生能源製造合成燃料。第三項是基於監測和反饋的“智能”電網。最後是公衆接受核能。

An agreement is needed to prevent countries from freeriding on the efforts of others, to facilitate co-operation on technology and to provide public goods such as climate financing for poor countries. Yet the multilateral system has failed repeatedly; success is not assured.

需要達成協議，以防止一些國家在其他國家採取努力的情況下“搭便車”，促進技術合作，爲貧窮國家提供氣候融資等公共產品。然而，多邊體系一再失敗；這一次也無法保證能夠成功。

The UN convention required rich countries to move first, but until now the US Senate has insisted that China move together with America. Last year China agreed, even committing to provide climate finance for poor countries. For the first time since 1992, the US, China and the EU are aligned.

《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》要求富裕國家首先採取行動，但直至現在，美國參議院一直堅持要求中國與美國一同行動。去年，中國表態同意，還更進一步，承諾爲窮國提供氣候融資。自1992年以來，美國、中國和歐洲首次協調一致。

Leaders must reaffirm the 2C limit in Paris, and check every five years whether a tougher one is needed. They should commit to decarbonisation this century and explain by 2018 how they intend to pursue it to 2050. Major economies must spend more on research and development, and say how they will pay for at least $100bn a year in additional climate financing for low-income countries by 2020. The deal they strike should be reviewed every five years.

各國領導人必須在巴黎氣候大會上重申“2度”的上限，並且每五年確認是否需要一個更嚴格的上限。他們必須承諾在本世紀脫碳，並且在2018年解釋爲實現這一目標到2050年的行動計劃。主要經濟體必須在研發方面投入更多資金，並且說明它們將如何在2020年前每年至少拿出1000億美元，爲低收入國家提供額外的氣候融資。達成的協議應該每5年進行一次審覈。

For years, sceptics have attacked climate science. Now they attack the Paris conference itself — wrongly alleging that the needed technologies do not yet exist or arguing, illogically, that climate change is a low priority or that adaptation is better than prevention. They quibble absurdly with specific reduction pledges made in advance of Paris, pretending that these would be the final word until the end of this century.

多年來，持懷疑態度的人都在攻擊氣候科學。現在他們攻擊巴黎氣候大會本身——他們錯誤地聲稱所需的技術還不存在，或者不合邏輯地主張氣候變化不需要優先考慮，或者適應比預防更好。他們荒謬地對巴黎氣候大會之前所做的具體減排承諾吹毛求疵，假裝這些直到本世紀末都將是最終定論。

This is word play, not serious analysis of what can be done, should be done and may well emerge from Paris. The governments there will pay little attention to such scepticism.

這是文字遊戲，而不是對人們能夠做的、應該做的以及巴黎大會可能成果的嚴肅分析。參加這次大會的各國政府不會在意這些懷疑。