不能依賴政策制定者救市 Policymakers have no answer to China rout

With markets experiencing a rout that seems out of all proportion to the economic data — do we really expect a global recession on the back of a 3 per cent devaluation of the Chinese currency? — investors are hoping that policymakers will step in and restore some calm.

全球市場正在經歷一場似乎與經濟數據不相匹配的潰敗——我們真的認爲在人民幣貶值3%之後會發生一場全球經濟衰退嗎？投資者希望政策制定者介入，讓市場恢復些許平靜。

Unfortunately, it is hard to see how, exactly. In most developed economies, fiscal policy remains relatively tight (the eurozone and even the US) or indeed needs to get tighter (Japan), while interest rates are still at rock bottom levels. That leaves little scope for providing much global stimulus.

遺憾的是，目前很難看出政策制定者該怎麼做。在多數發達經濟體，財政政策仍然相對較緊（歐元區、甚至美國）或者確實需要收緊（日本），同時利率仍然處於最低水平。這幾乎沒有留下什麼餘地來讓他們推出全球刺激措施。

Worse, expectations of rising US rates are preventing many emerging markets from adopting desperately needed counter-cyclical monetary policy.

更糟糕的是，對美國加息的預期正阻礙着很多新興市場採取亟需的反週期貨幣政策。

Many commodity exporters, for example in Latin America, would ideally like to reduce interest rates to offset the impact of lower exports on growth, but are instead facing the prospect of rises as they are forced to “follow the Fed”.

本來在理想情況下，很多大宗商品出口國（例如拉丁美洲國家）應該會樂於降息來抵消出口下滑對經濟增長的影響，但是相反，它們正面臨加息的前景，因爲它們不得不“追隨美聯儲(Fed)”。

Granted, most of these countries are letting their currencies depreciate — either happily or with some attempts to smooth the drop — and this should help growth. But there is also a pass-through to inflation, which imposes a further constraint on lowering rates.

誠然，無論是樂意地還是懷揣着一些緩和經濟下滑的意圖，多數大宗商品出口國正在進行貨幣貶值，並且這應該會有助於經濟增長。但是這也會導致通脹，對降息形成進一步限制。

And in cases where there are political risks, or inflation is already high for domestic reasons, central banks are being forced to raise rates however dismal the domestic economy — Brazil, Russia and, to a lesser extent, South Africa are all caught in this trap.

而在存在政治風險、或者通脹水平已經因國內原因而處於高位的國家，無論國內經濟如何低迷，其央行都在被迫加息——巴西、俄羅斯、還有程度較輕的南非，均陷於此種困境之中。

That is not to say policymakers are completely powerless.

這並不是說政策制定者完全無能爲力。

In China, the trigger for this market meltdown, investors are looking for loud and clear signals from officials in the form of liquidity injections into the domestic economy. To be fair, the People’s Bank of China has been doing a fair bit of this in the past few days through reverse repos and its open market operations; but what markets are really looking for is a cut in required reserve ratios to help the commercial banks.

在觸發此輪全球市場下跌的中國，投資者正在等待官方以向國內經濟注入流動性的方式釋放響亮而明確的信號。平心而論，過去幾天，通過逆向回購和公開市場操作，中國央行已經採取了相當多這方面的行動；但是市場真正想要的是央行下調存款準備金率來幫助商業銀行。（注：中國央行於週一宣佈再次降息降準。）

Such RRR cuts are indeed likely to come — and soon — but the reason the central bank has been hesitating is that it fears a lot of the capital that will be released this way will simply escape abroad, putting more pressure on the renminbi, which the authorities have been trying to stabilise again after guiding it weaker two weeks ago.

此類降準確實很可能到來——而且會很快到來——但是令央行一直遲疑的原因是，擔心通過這種方式釋放的資金中會有大量直接逃往海外，對人民幣施加更大壓力。在兩週前引導人民幣走低後，當局正試圖再次穩定人民幣匯率。

Capital outflows would also tighten domestic liquidity, offsetting the whole point of the RRR cuts in the first place.

資本外流也會造成國內流動性緊張，抵消起初降準的全部意義。

Still, at this point, any kind of decisive action by Beijing would be greeted with applause by investors who are adjusting not only to lower growth expectations out of the mainland but also to the fact that the leadership’s aura of bureaucratic competence has been shattered following its cack-handed interventions in the stock market and the currency.

不過，此時，北京方面的任何果斷舉動都會受到投資者的歡迎。投資者不僅正在適應內地增長下滑的預期，而且也在適應另一種情況——在笨拙地干預股市和匯率之後，領導層官僚能力的光環已經被打破。

From the US central bank, by contrast, markets are looking for a lack of action: pricing for “lift-off” in September is now down to only about 30 per cent, in the belief that lower global growth and accelerating disinflation (just look at the oil price) will stay the Fed’s hand... well into 2016.

相比之下，對於美聯儲，市場想要的是不作爲：市場對9月加息機率的估計如今已經降至僅僅30%左右，他們相信全球增長下滑以及反通貨膨脹(disinflation)加速（只需看看油價便知）將令美聯儲按兵不動……也許會推遲到2016年。

They may be disappointed on this front as well. The Fed makes policy with the domestic economy in mind and the US is doing pretty well just now, particularly its labour market.

在這一方面，他們可能也會失望。美聯儲制定政策時考慮的是國內經濟，而美國眼下的情況相當好，特別是其勞動力市場。

Of course, the bank will take financial dislocations into account, but it will not be ruled by them. And precisely because it is trying to rebuild interest rates so that it can respond again in a future recession or crisis, there is an inbuilt desire at the Fed to lift off, at least cautiously.

當然，美聯儲也會考慮金融動盪，但是不會受這些情況的左右。正是因爲美聯儲正試圖重建利率，好在未來發生衰退或危機時有能力再次應對，美聯儲有內在的加息願望，至少是謹慎加息。

Nor do Janet Yellen & co want to signal any concerns over US growth by holding off.

珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)等人也不想因爲按兵不動而釋放出對美國經濟增長有所擔憂的信號。

With luck, we will look back at the current sell-off as just another bout of nerves in August. But perhaps the real lesson should be that policymakers are not all powerful and also rather human in their capacity to make mistakes. And that markets cannot rely on them to come to the rescue.

幸運的話，當我們未來回頭再看時，會把當前的拋售看作是8月的一波神經緊張。但是，也許真正的教訓應該是，政策制定者並非無所不能，他們也是人也會犯錯誤。市場不能依靠政策制定者來出手相救。