假若2022年 一位穆斯林成爲法國總統
Paris — The cover of this week’s Charlie Hebdo, the French satirical newspaper that was the target of a massacre on Wednesday by masked gunmen, featured a cartoon depicting Michel Houellebecq, whose polemical — some say prophetic — new novel, “Submission,” imagines a Muslim becoming president of France in 2022.
Under the headline “The predictions of the Great Houellebecq,” the celebrated novelist, wearing a magician’s hat and holding a cigarette, says, “In 2015, I will lose my teeth. In 2022, I will celebrate Ramadan.”
漫畫標題是“了不起的維勒貝克的預言”，圖中這位著名小說家戴着魔法師的帽子，手拿一支香菸，說：“2015年，我將失去牙齒。2022年，我就得過齋月了。”Even before its official release on Wednesday, “Submission” had already set off intense debates in France — about the line between satire and Islamophobia and between fantasy and realpolitik, about the novelist’s (and Islam’s) treatment of women, and about the political mainstream’s struggles to keep pace with the rise of both Islam and the far right — a debate that the attacks are certain to intensify.
甚至在星期三正式出版之前，《屈服》便已經在法國引起激烈爭論——關於諷刺文學與恐伊斯蘭之間的界限、關於幻想與現實政治之間的界限、關於這位小說家與伊斯蘭教對待女性的方式，乃至關於政治主流如何努力跟上伊斯蘭與極右勢力的崛起——這場爭論無疑將因恐怖襲擊而繼續升溫。
Earlier this week, before the attack in Paris, President François Hollande said he would read it. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, whom the fictional Muslim leader defeats in the novel, cashed in, calling it “a fiction that could one day become a reality.” Late Thursday, Agence France-Presse reported that Mr. Houellebecq (pronounced WELL-beck) had stopped promoting the book.
本週早些時候，在巴黎的恐怖襲擊之前，弗朗索瓦·奧朗德總統(President François Hollande)說自己會讀這本書。右翼政黨國民陣線的領導人瑪麗娜·勒龐(Marine Le Pen)也抓住這個機會——書中的穆斯林領袖在競選中擊敗了她——說，“這本小說有可能在某天成爲現實。”上週四，法新社報道維勒貝克已經停止宣傳這本書。With an ambitious initial print run of 150,000 copies, “Submission” is already the No. 1 seller on Amazon in France. It is likely to join another book with a similar theme on best-seller lists: “The French Suicide,” a 500-page essay in which the journalist Éric Zemmour, 56, argues that immigration, feminism and the 1968 student uprisings set France on a path to ruin. The top seller in France, the book has sold 400,000 copies since its release in October, according to its publisher, Albin Michel.
《屈服》的首印量高達15萬冊之多，在法國亞馬遜網站上位居暢銷榜頭名。暢銷榜上還有另一本書也有着類似的主題——《法國的自殺》(The French Suicide)，這本500頁的書由56歲的記者埃裏克·澤穆爾(Éric Zemmour)所著，稱移民、女性主義和1968年的學生暴動令法國走向毀滅之路。其出版社阿爾賓·米歇爾稱，這本書自去年10月出版以來已經售出40萬冊，Though Mr. Zemmour’s is a work of reactionary nostalgia and Mr. Houellebecq’s a futuristic fantasy, both books have hit the dominant note in the national mood today: “inquiétude,” or profound anxiety about the future.
儘管澤穆爾的作品是保守主義的懷舊，而維勒貝克的書是未來主義的幻想，兩本書都直擊當今法國的主要思潮：“焦慮”(inquiétude)，也就是對未來的深刻憂慮。Fueling this anxiety for many French are the fears of non-Muslims about Muslims, the threat posed by groups like the Islamic State and their recruiting in Europe, and rising anti-Semitism. More broadly, concern has grown that the political center is eroding and that extremes are rising in a way reminiscent of the 1930s, along with a sense that France, which prides itself on its republican tradition and strong, centralized state, has ceded too much power to the European Union.
非穆斯林對穆斯林的恐懼、IS等組織的威脅，乃至他們在歐洲招募成員的行爲以及反猶太主義的崛起，這些現象令這種焦慮進一步升溫。在更大的層面上，人們擔心政治中心力量受到侵蝕，極端勢力在崛起，和20世紀30年代的情況有些相像。此外，法國一貫爲自己的共和政體傳統，以及強大的中央集權國家感到驕傲，如今卻將許多權力讓渡給了歐盟，這也加深了焦慮之情。“I think this anxiety is the idea of seeing France give up on itself, of changing to the point of no longer being recognizable,” said the philosopher Alain Finkielkraut, whose much-debated 2013 book, “L’identité Malheureuse,” or “The Unhappy Identity,” discussed the problems immigration poses for French identity and cultural integration. “People are homesick at home,” he added, speaking two days before the attacks.
“我認爲這種焦慮是認爲法國放棄了自己，變得讓人認不出來了，”哲學家阿蘭·芬基爾克勞(Alain Finkielkraut)說，2013年，他的書《不快樂的身份》(L’identité Malheureuse)探討移民爲法國人身份認同與文化整合所帶來的問題，受到廣泛討論。“人們在自己家裏，卻患了思鄉症，”他在恐怖襲擊兩天前這樣說。Mr. Zemmour and Mr. Houellebecq wade into similar swampy waters, but reach different shores. “It’s the same book, in that both talk about the same subject: the irreversible rise of Islam in society and in politics,” said Christophe Barbier, the editor in chief of the newsweekly L’Express.
澤穆爾與芬基爾克勞涉入類似的泥沼，卻在不同的地方登岸。“它們是同樣的書，說的是同一個主題：伊斯蘭力量在社會與政治中不可避免的崛起，”新聞週報《快報》(L’Express)主編克里斯托弗·巴爾比埃爾(Christophe Barbier)說。For the pessimistic Mr. Zemmour, “the final prognosis is civil war. One day there will be a clash between the French who aren’t Muslim and the French who think that a Muslim should be president of the republic,” Mr. Barbier said. Mr. Houellebecq “takes the opposite tack: the rise of Islam is not civil war, it’s civil peace,” Mr. Barbier added.
對於澤穆爾這樣的悲觀主義者來說，“最終的預測就是內戰。總有一天在法國內部會有一場衝突，是那些非穆斯林與認爲穆斯林應該當總統的法國人之間的衝突，”巴爾比埃爾說。而維勒貝克“方向正相反，他認爲伊斯蘭的崛起不會導致內戰，而會帶來國內的和平，”巴爾比埃爾補充。“Submission,” Mr. Houellebecq’s sixth novel, paints France as a vision of economic stability under the reassuring presence of Mohammed Ben Abbes, the son of a Tunisian grocer and graduate of the elite École Nationale d’Administration. He wants to emulate the Roman emperor Augustus and bring parts of the Maghreb and Turkey into Europe.
《屈服》是維勒貝克的第六部小說，書中把法國描述爲一個經濟穩定的國家，穆罕默德·本·阿貝斯的領導令人放心，他是一個突尼斯雜貨商的兒子，從國家行政學院這個精英學府畢業。他希望努力趕上羅馬帝國的君王奧古都斯大帝的功績，把馬格里布地區的部分國家和土耳其帶入歐洲。With investment from the Middle East, the economically troubled France is in the black again. Shariah has come to the country of laïcité, where church and state are strongly separated. Polygamy is legal and women, now covered in public, take on the role of housewives.
由於在中東的投資，經濟一度陷入困境的法國如今再度扭轉了赤字。伊斯蘭教法成了這個原本政教分離的國家的憲章。一夫多妻成爲合法，女人要在公共場合蒙面，迴歸到家庭主婦的角色。The protagonist is François, a specialist on the 19th-century fin-de-siècle French novelist Joris-Karl Huysmans, a convert to Catholicism. François converts to Islam to keep his job teaching at the Sorbonne. (With France under Islamic law, his sometime girlfriend, Myriam, who is Jewish, emigrates to Israel, echoing a very real trend among French Jews today.)
書中的主角是弗朗索瓦，一個專門研究19世紀末法國小說家喬裏-卡爾·於斯曼(Joris-Karl Huysmans)的專家，於斯曼是天主教的皈依者。弗朗索瓦則皈依了伊斯蘭教，以便保住自己在索邦大學的教職（由於法國在伊斯蘭法治下，和他分分合合的猶太女友米亞姆只得移民以色列，她的狀況頗能反映如今法國猶太人的真實趨勢）。Mr. Houellebecq, 58, is no stranger to controversy. He was tried on defamation charges after he called Islam “the most stupid religion” in a 2001 interview. His 1998 novel “The Elementary Particles,” was about the dark side of sexual liberation, while “Platform” (2001) explored sex tourism and anti-Muslim sentiments. In 2010, his novel “The Map and the Territory” won France’s prestigious Goncourt Prize.
58歲的維勒貝克對爭議並不陌生。2001年的一次訪談中，他說伊斯蘭教是“最愚蠢的信仰”，被指控爲誹謗。1998年，他的小說《基本粒子》(The Elementary Particles)寫的是性解放中的黑暗面，2001年的《平臺》(Platform)探索性旅遊業與反穆斯林情緒。2010年，他的小說《地圖與疆域》(The Map and the Territory)獲得了法國極富聲望的龔古爾獎。This week, before the attack, some critics said the novelist was playing with fire, that “Submission,” its title a play on the literal meaning of the word Islam, was more than a literary exercise in that it could have an impact on French politics and civil life.
這個星期，在恐怖襲擊發生之前，有些評論家說這位小說家寫《屈服》是在玩火，這個書名用“伊斯蘭世界”的字面意義玩文字遊戲，但它不僅僅是一個文學練習，也很可能對法國政治與公民生活發生影響。“Houellebecq uses his talent, if I may say so, to exalt or to highlight this aspect of a collective fear that is descending upon us,” the philosopher Malek Chebel, who is Muslim, said on France 2 television this week. “I reproach him for it, all the more so that he is a great writer, and when you are a great writer, you have more responsibilities.”
“維勒貝克使用他的才能——如果我可以這樣說——去提高或強調突然襲上我們心頭的集體恐懼中的這一方面，”穆斯林哲學家馬萊克·切貝爾(Malek Chebel)本週在France2電視臺的節目中說，“我譴責他的做法，尤其是因爲，他是一位偉大的作家，如果你是一個偉大的作家，你就應該更負責任。”Mr. Houellebecq rejected the idea that literature could alter events.
維勒貝克不認爲文學可以改變現實生活中的事件。“I don’t have other examples of a novel changing the course of history,” Mr. Houellebecq said on the same program. “Other things change the course of history. Essays, ‘The Communist Manifesto,’ things like that, but not novels. That has never happened.”
“我不知道有什麼小說改變歷史進程的例子，”維勒貝克在同一個節目中說，“歷史的進程是由其他東西改變的，比如《共產黨宣言》之類的文章，但不是小說。這樣的事情從來沒有發生過。”Through a spokeswoman for his publisher, Flammarion, Mr. Houellebecq declined to be interviewed for this article. Farrar, Strauss & Giroux has acquired the book in the United States but has not set a publication date yet. In an interview with The Paris Review, Mr. Houellebecq called the novel “a political fiction,” in the same vein as those of Joseph Conrad or John Buchan.
他通過自己的出版公司弗拉馬里昂出版社的一位發言人拒絕了本文作者的採訪要求。法拉·斯特勞斯與吉魯科斯出版社獲得了本書在美國的發行權，但還沒定下具體出版日期。在接受《巴黎評論》(The Paris Review)訪談時，維勒貝克說自己的小說是“政治虛構文學”，和約瑟夫·康拉德(Joseph Conrad)與約翰·巴肯(John Buchan)的小說源自同一血脈。Some commentators see the book as a brilliant commentary on France’s collaborationist tendencies.
有些評論家認爲這本書是對法國存在的賣國主義趨勢的精彩評論。In Le Figaro on Thursday, the writer Chahdortt Djavann asked, “Is it out of misogyny that he makes all women submit to the veil and polygamy and expulsion from public spaces, without their offering the least resistance, or does he really think that Frenchwomen will be less courageous than Egyptian and Tunisian women?”
在週四的《費加羅報》(Le Figaro)上，作家沙多爾·德亞萬(Chahdortt Djavann)問道：“他在書中讓所有女人屈服於面紗、多配偶婚，甘於被放逐出公共空間，全無絲毫反抗，這是不是有點太厭女了，抑或他覺得法國女人不像埃及和突尼斯女人那樣勇敢？”There are few such distinctions in “The French Suicide,” in which Mr. Zemmour argues that women should stay home and have more children. His essay examines moments in French culture since the death of Gen. Charles de Gaulle in 1970, with an unrepentant nostalgia for a past with strong leaders, and the peace and prosperity of “Les Trente Glorieuses,” or the 30 years from the end of World War II until the mid-1970s.
《法國的自殺》中有些不同，澤穆爾認爲，女人應當呆在家裏，多生孩子。他的文章審視了1970年夏爾·戴高樂將軍(Gen. Charles de Gaulle)去世後法國文化史上的重要時刻，對強硬的領導者與“榮耀30年”（從“二戰”後到70年代中期）抱有堅定的懷舊情緒。There are complex dissonances at work. Mr. Zemmour, the grandson of Algerian Jews, is fairly apologetic for Vichy France, and argues that people in France should give their children French names.
書中有着複雜的不和諧。澤穆爾的祖父輩是阿爾及利亞猶太人，卻爲維希法國政府辯解，還認爲身在法國的人就應該給自己的子女起法國名字。Through an assistant, Mr. Zemmour declined to comment.
澤穆爾通過助手拒絕了本文作者採訪。In his daily editorial on the popular French radio station RTL, on Thursday, Mr. Zemmour called the attacks on Charlie Hebdo France’s Sept. 11. “We aren’t fighting a war for free expression, we’re fighting a war, period,” he said. The peace of postwar France had been a rare parenthesis. “France has always been a country of civil wars and wars of religion,” he added.
澤穆爾在法國頗受歡迎的廣播電臺RTL中有一個每日社論欄目，星期四，他在這個欄目中稱《查理週刊》的遇襲是法國的911事件。“我們不是在爲言論自由而戰，我們是在打一場戰爭，就是這樣，”他說。法國戰後的和平不過是一個寶貴的間歇期，“法國總是處於內戰與宗教戰爭之中，”他補充說。Commentators said that both “The French Suicide” and “Submission” would ultimately shore up the political fortunes of the National Front, a growing if incoherent mix of anti-establishment nativism, anti-immigrant sentiment, and anti-NATO and anti-European Union fervor.
評論家說《法國的自殺》和《屈服》最終都有利於國民陣線的政治利益，迎合了一股反體制的本土主義、反移民情緒，乃至反北約和反歐盟狂熱，這股狂熱雖在不斷增長，但卻支離破碎。“The left has nothing to propose or to respond, and Zemmour and Houellebecq profit from this absence,” said Eric Naulleau, Mr. Zemmour’s more left-leaning co-host on a weekly television program and the author of a 2005 essay critical of Mr. Houellebecq.
“左派沒有什麼建議或迴應，而澤穆爾和維勒貝克從這種缺席中獲利，”埃裏克·諾爾洛(Eric Naulleau)說，他和澤穆爾共同主持一檔每週電視節目，不過和澤穆爾相比立場偏左，2005年，他還曾撰文批評維勒貝克。“One flees to the past and the other flees to the future,” Mr. Naulleau added of the two authors, “but neither offers any answers.”
“一個逃往過去，一個逃進未來，”諾爾洛這樣評價這兩位作家，“但他們都沒給出任何答案。”
