世界禁令日演愈烈 菸草公司好日無多

Smokers in the developed world are out in the cold. Regulators have moved smoking from bars into streets; advertising has moved from screens to, at best, still pictures. Two years ago, Australia introduced “plain” packaging – adorned with such gruesome warnings that the adjective hardly fits.

發達世界的菸民受到了冷落。監管機構已迫使吸菸者從酒吧轉戰街頭，菸草廣告也從屏幕上轉移到至多是靜止的圖片上。兩年前，澳大利亞還推出了香菸的“平裝”包裝，但包裝上印製的可怕警示可一點兒也不“平淡”。

Yet the stocks have done well. Since late 2008, the top five names in the sector have returned between 144 per cent (Imperial) and 347 per cent (Altria). Most tobacco companies have beaten the 130 per cent return of the MSCI World index. Such resilience may be ending.

然而，菸草公司的股票表現不錯。自2008年末以來，5大煙草公司的股價回升幅度在144%（帝國菸草(Imperial)）至347%（奧馳亞(Altria)）之間。大多數菸草公司的股價超過了摩根士丹利資本國際全球指數(MSCI World Index) 130%的漲幅。這樣的強韌表現可能要結束了。

This week China, home to 300m smokers and accounting for a third of the world’s tobacco use, according to Euromonitor, announced a ban in Beijing’s indoor public spaces, to commence in June.

本週，北京市政府宣佈，從明年6月起，北京室內公共場所將全面禁止吸菸。歐睿信息諮詢公司(Euromonitor)的數據顯示，中國有3億菸民，貢獻了全球三分之一的菸草消費量。

The Chinese market is dominated by state-owned enterprises and counterfeit goods, so the direct impact on multinationals will be small. But the message is clear. Growth will become harder to find, even in the emerging world.

中國市場由國有企業和假冒僞劣產品主導，因此控煙令對跨國公司的直接影響將會很小。但它傳遞的信息是明確的。菸草行業將更難找到增長機會，即便在新興世界。

Last year, tougher regulations hit developed-market volumes and even pricing – often hidden behind tax rises – is softening a bit.

去年，更爲嚴厲的監管打擊了發達市場的銷售量，甚至定價（通常隱藏在加稅背後）也有所鬆動。

So far this year, both Japan Tobacco and Philip Morris International have seen sales declines accelerate in previously reliable markets such as eastern Europe.

今年迄今以來，日本菸草(Japan Tobacco)和菲利普莫里斯國際公司(Philip Morris International)在東歐等之前可靠市場的銷售全都加速下滑。

Forecasts are faltering: expected earnings per share have fallen about one-tenth as the year has progressed. Typical is Philip Morris, with 70 per cent of sales in emerging markets. Since its 2008 spin-off from US-focused parent Altria, the company has achieved annual earnings per share growth of one-tenth. This year, growth will fall 6 per cent.

預期也很慘淡：隨着時間的推移，預期每股收益下降了十分之一左右。70%的銷售來自新興市場的菲利普莫里斯國際公司尤爲典型。自2008年從其專注於美國市場的母公司奧馳亞拆分出來之後，該公司的每股收益每年增長10%。今年其每股收益將同比下降6%。

Japan Tobacco and British American have a similar tale of woe. And yet the stocks are not cheap, on mid-teens multiples of 2015 EPS.

日本菸草和英美菸草公司(British American)同病相憐。然而，它們的股價並不便宜，2015年的預期市盈率達到15倍左右。

These companies generate lots of cash. Their dividends look safe. But weaker profits could cut into share buybacks. These have long been a key reason to invest in Philip Morris shares.

這些公司產生了大量的現金。它們的股息發放看起來沒有問題。但利潤下降可能影響到股票回購。股票回購長期以來一直是投資者買入菲利普莫里斯股票的關鍵原因。

British American had been ramping up buybacks, until its recent investment in Reynolds American. Quitting will be hard.

英美菸草公司在最近投資於雷諾菸草(Reynolds American)之前一直在加大股票回購力度。退出將很艱難。