委內瑞拉對中國違約出人意料
Last month Ricardo Hausmann, a normally mild Harvard academic, set off the equivalent of a financial bomb. The economist suggested that Venezuela had already defaulted on many of its suppliers, its oil service contractors, and its citizens. So who or what might come next?
上個月，通常溫和的哈佛(Harvard)學者裏卡多•豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)不啻引爆了一枚金融炸彈。這位經濟學家表示，委內瑞拉已對其許多供應商、石油服務合同商以及國民違約了。那麼，接下來可能對誰或者哪個領域違約呢？When Hausmann suggested Wall Street, the market reaction was huge. Indeed Venezuelan bonds, undercut by the falling oil price, have been dropping ever since. Yet it turns out that Venezuela’s latest default has been, in fact, to China. Given that Beijing is one of Caracas’ closest allies, this is surprising. It is also bullish for Wall Street.
豪斯曼對華爾街(Wall Street)的提醒，引起了市場的巨大反響。實際上，因油價下跌而被壓低的委內瑞拉債券，從那時起價格一直在下跌。但事實證明，委內瑞拉最新的違約對象其實是中國。鑑於中國是委內瑞拉的最親密盟國之一，此事頗令人驚訝。這也利好華爾街。
Venezuela has long been a major recipient of Chinese loans, accounting for half of Beijing’s lending to the region. Since 2006, it has taken on $50bn of oil-backed debt. Last year, Rafael Ramirez, the former head of state-oil company PdvSA, revealed that these payments-in kind absorbed over half of Venezuela’s 640,000 barrels per day of oil exports to China. But no more, it seems.
長期以來，委內瑞拉一直是獲得中國貸款的大戶，佔到中國對拉美貸款總量的二分之一。自2006年以來，該國接受了500億美元石油支持貸款。去年國有石油公司——委內瑞拉國家石油公司(PDVSA)的前掌舵人拉斐爾•拉米雷斯(Rafael Ramirez)透露，這種以石油償還貸款的方式佔該國每日64萬桶對華石油出口的逾一半。但是，看來以後不會這樣了。
Last week, Venezuela’s national gazette made it official that Caracas no longer needed to export 330,000 barrels bpd to China to pay for its loans. Instead, according to BancTrust, a boutique investment bank, PdVSA can now send as much or as little oil to Beijing as it wants. Furthermore, the terms of the loans have been extended beyond their current three years, perhaps indefinitely. China’s Ministry of Commerce has since confirmed the changes, pointing out they were made at Venezuela’s request.
上週，委內瑞拉全國性報紙公開稱，該國不再需要每日向中國出口33萬桶石油以償還貸款。相反，小型投行BancTrust表示，PDVSA現在向中國出口石油量的多少，完全由其自己決定。另外，貸款期限已在當前的3年基礎上延長，可能是無限期的延長。中國商務部後來已證實了這一變動，並指出這是應委內瑞拉的要求而做出的。This de facto debt rescheduling tells us several important things. First, it is another confirmation of Venezuela’s economic and financial distress. To service its Chinese debts at lower oil prices, Venezuela would have had to export comparably more oil. But the country cannot increase oil output quickly. Nor does it have the financial wherewithal to service its Chinese debts in cash instead; foreign reserves are already under pressure. So something else had to be done.
這一實際上的債務延期告訴我們幾個重要事實。第一，這再次證實了委內瑞拉的經濟與金融困局。要在更低油價下償還中國債務，委內瑞拉將不得不出口更多石油。但該國無法迅速提高石油產量，同樣也沒有財力以現金償還中國債務。該國外匯儲備已在承壓。所以必須採取其他措施。Second, China apparently agreed to the debt rescheduling perhaps because its banks believed in taking the long view. After all, Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves – so one day it will pay. But was the rescheduling China’s preferred choice? As the old saying goes: if you owe the bank $5, you have a problem, but if you owe the bank $5m, the bank has a problem. Either way, China is unlikely to be a source of fresh finance for Venezuela from now on.
第二，中國看來同意了債務延期，可能是因爲中國的銀行認爲應該放眼長遠。委內瑞拉畢竟擁有世界最大的石油儲量，所以總有一天它將償還債務。但債務延期是中國的首選嗎？正如古諺所說：如果你欠銀行5美元，那麼你將有麻煩，但如果你欠銀行500萬美元，那麼銀行將有麻煩。不管哪種情況，從現在開始，中國都不可能成爲委內瑞拉獲得新融資的來源國了。Lastly, Venezuela now has 330,000 bpd of oil – equivalent to almost $25m a day or $9bn a year — that it can use for other ends. One use might be to ease the import crunch that has resulted in shortages of so many basic goods, such as toilet paper. Another might be to divert resources to meet international bond payments. Either way, Venezuela is struggling and so far Wall Street is still being paid. But for how much longer?
最後，委內瑞拉現在有每日33萬桶的石油——摺合價格接近每日2500萬美元、每年90億美元——可用到其他用途了。可能用途之一是緩解進口資金緊張，後者已導致諸如衛生紙等衆多基本商品的短缺。另外可以轉作償還國際債券之用。不管哪種情況，委內瑞拉都在拼命掙扎。迄今華爾街仍收到該國的還款，但這種狀況還能延續多久呢？
