中國新一代購車大軍來勢洶洶
China's economy may be slowing, but you wouldn't know it from the average car buyer.
中國的經濟增長速度可能在放緩，但是從洶涌的購車大軍中絲毫察覺不到這一點。Passenger car sales in China look set to expand 15% this year -- twice the pace of 2012, estimate consultants at LMC Automotive.
諮詢公司LMC Automotive估計，今年中國乘用車銷量將增長15%，增幅是2012年的兩倍。There are bumps in the road ahead, but they shouldn't harm the spending spree. To combat pollution, several big cities are restricting car purchases by driving up license-plate prices. In the long term, these diktats probably are limited to a few places with pollution concerns, where the market is saturated anyway.
未來汽車市場依然存在一些障礙，但不會影響到這種購車熱潮。雖然中國幾個大城市爲控制污染而採取了提高車牌價格等措施來限制汽車購買，不過長期而言，這些限購措施可能只限於一些污染嚴重的城市，這些城市的市場已經飽和。
The last sales slump, which ended in 2012, resulted mostly from the end of nationwide car subsidies in 2009 and 2010 that had pulled forward demand. There haven't been major subsidies in place this year so demand should remain fresh.
中國上次出現銷量滑坡局面，主要因爲政府在2009年和2010年推出了全國範圍的補貼政策，透支了需求，因而在政策退出後市場低迷，這種狀況已在2012年結束。今年在沒有大型補貼活動的情況下市場需求保持旺盛。Meanwhile, next year could add another driver: replacements.
與此同時，明年汽車市場將增添另一個驅動力：換車需求。It has been about five years since China's car sales exploded in 2009. Consumers who ventured into the market then are looking to change their old cars, reckons Macquarie's Janet Lewis. Plus, more drivers are using car loans. The share of buyers using loans tripled to 15% in 2013 from 2009, according to J.D. Power.
中國距2009年出現汽車銷量爆發式增長已經過去五年時間。麥格理(Macquarie)分析師Janet Lewis認爲，當年的購車者將會考慮換車。此外，更多購車者使用汽車貸款。J.D. Power的數據顯示，2013年貸款購車比例上升至15%，是2009年的三倍。This sophisticated second-time buyer with access to financing likely will purchase a luxury or utility vehicle, Ms. Lewis says. That is one reason both these segments look promising. LMC forecasts luxury car sales rising by 23% in 2014.
Lewis表示，這些精明的二次購車者在貸款的幫助下將購買豪華車或運動型多用途車(SUV)。這是兩個市場領域前景看好的一個理由。LMC預計，2014年豪華車銷量將增長23%。The question for investors is how to capitalize on all this. Auto stocks rallied 36% this year, so there may be little more to be gained. Leading SUV-maker Great Wall Motor's shares climbed 80%, but now its margins are moderating. On the other hand, BMW's local partner Brilliance China Automotive should enhance its profits from 2015 as it boosts scale.
投資者的問題是如何捕捉其中的投資機會。今年汽車股高漲了36%，再漲空間可能有限。一流SUV企業長城汽車(Great Wall Motor Co.)飆升了80%，但目前公司的利潤率勢頭已經減弱。另一方面，寶馬汽車(BMW)的中國合作伙伴華晨中國(Brilliance China Automotive)從2015年起利潤有望提高，因爲規模擴大。Car dealers are another way in. Hong Kong-listed China Zhengtong Auto Services markets premium brands, including in fast-growing inland provinces, and trades at seven times forward earnings. That is cheaper than the nine times at which Baoxin Auto Group, another luxury dealer, trades.
投資汽車經銷商股是另一種方式。香港上市公司正通汽車(China Zhengtong Auto Services)目前的市盈率只有7倍；該公司銷售豪華汽車品牌，覆蓋地區包括高增長的內陸市場。正通汽車的市盈率低於寶信汽車(Baoxin Auto Group)的9倍，後者是另一家豪華車經銷商。China's secular automotive story remains intact. And having conquered richer coastal provinces, businesses are moving inland. Residents in lower-tier cities will purchase nearly 60% of China's new cars until 2020, says McKinsey.
中國汽車市場的長期增長趨勢不變。繼攻克富裕的沿海省份之後，汽車市場的主戰場正轉向內陸省份。McKinsey稱，到2020年，三四線城市的新車購買比例將接近60%。Even as China's place in the global economic firmament dims, its car buyers should remain stars.
即使中國在全球經濟天空中的光芒黯淡，中國購車者仍將是閃亮的明星。
