年股市崩盤的概率有多大(2)
Everyone on Wall Street, Main Street and Washington keeps forgetting the fundamentals of market cycles. Please remember: Investors Business Daily's Bill O'Neill, author of 'How to Make Money in Stocks, ' says market cycles average 3.75 years up, nine months down.
華爾街、大街上和華盛頓的每一個人都在不斷地忘記市場週期的基本原理。請記住：《笑傲股市》(How to Make Money in Stocks)作者、《投資者商務日報》(Investors Business Daily)的比爾•奧尼爾(Bill O'Neill)說，市場的上行週期平均爲3.75年，下行週期平均爲九個月。But 'averages' are old data, not future facts. Happy talk won't restart a bull. And more warnings won't puncture an old bubble. Cycles have lives of their own, move up and down when they damn well feel like it. That's nature.
但“平均”講的是以前的情況，不是未來的事實。樂觀言論不會讓牛市重啓，新的警告聲音也不會刺破舊的泡沫。週期有自己的生命，該上行的時候上行，該下行的時候下行。這是很自然的事情。
7. Political wars guarantee intense volatility through 2014-2016 elections
7. 由於政治爭鬥的存在，2014年-2016年的選舉過程中註定會有頻繁的波動Sorry, folks, but if you're an investor hoping America's political internecine wars will improve in the near future, just don't invest. The war between Congress with it's abysmal 10% approval rating and the president, the war between the Dems, GOP and the tea party, is going to get even worse, upsetting markets and the economy even more.
對不起了各位，但如果你是投資者，並希望美國政壇的互相殘殺會在短時間內改善，那你還是別投資了。支持率跌至10%深谷的國會與總統之間，民主黨、共和黨和茶黨之間的戰爭將越打越激烈，擾亂市場，更擾亂經濟。Why? Just add in the intensifying anger after the Supreme Court's decisions over same-sex marriage issues and gays, add in the growing anger over abortions, Obamacare, gun control, food stamps, the new voter suppression pushed by GOP governors, plus more threats by conservatives and the tea party to dig in their heels and fight to overturn everything and increase austerity too.
爲什麼這麼說呢？只需想想最高法院對同性婚姻問題做出裁決之後人們越來越強烈的怒火，想想人們圍繞墮胎、奧巴馬醫改、槍支管制、食品券、共和黨州長新推的選民壓制等問題越來越強烈的怒火，另外還有保守派和茶黨頑固不化，力爭推翻一切立法並加強財政緊縮。This is all bad news for investors, just as America's 30-year bond bull is ending.
對投資者來說，這一切都是壞消息。而現在恰好是美國30年債券牛市行情即將終結的時候。8. Employment futures weak as pensions drain states, municipalities
8. 隨着養老金抽乾州市財政，就業前景疲弱Any 'jobs recovery is years away in most cities, ' says USA Today. And in reviewing famed analyst Meredith Whitney's new book, 'The Fate of States, ' she warns that 'excessive pensions crowd out both liberal goals such as education spending and tax cuts that conservatives want.'
《今日美國》(USA Today)說，對大多數城市來講，就業復甦即使能實現，也得是在好幾年過後。瀏覽知名分析師梅瑞迪斯•惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)新書《州的命運》(The Fate of States)時你會看到，她提醒說，“過多的養老金會擠出教育支出等自由派目標，也會擠出保守派希望實現的減稅目標”。Yes, pensions for retirees at state and municipal levels are preventing recovery. Corporate pensions are also a big problem, widening America's inequality gap: Drug company McKesson's CEO has been boss for 14 years, but will retire with a $159 million pension, while the income of America's average wage earner has stagnated for 30 years.
是的，州市層級的退休金妨礙了復甦。公司養老金也是一個大問題，它加劇了美國的貧富分化：藥品公司麥克森(McKesson)的CEO才當14年的老大，但退休時將有1.59億美元的退休金，而美國一般打工族的收入已經30年止步不前。9. Investors brains are so distracted, in denial, they won't get out in time.
9. 投資者如此不在乎，如此不接受事實，他們不會及時逃出。A Bubble With No Name Yet is still a bubble. But, Americans are too distracted, too numb, too in denial to hear the warnings. Reminds me of my headline back on March 20, 2000. 'Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming.'
“暫時沒有名字的泡沫”依然是泡沫。但美國人太不在乎、太麻木、太不接受事實，所以聽不到警告聲音。這讓我想起2000年3月20日我一篇文章的標題：“下次崩盤，對不起你們永遠不會聽到它的到來”(Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming)。But the crash hit. The economy tanked. The recession lasted 30 months. Wall Street lost over $8 trillion of our retirement money. In the first decade of the 21st century, from the 2000 dot-com crash till 2010 disaster Wall Street's had a negative inflation-adjusted performance. Today Wall Street's returns are just barely beating inflation. No wonder investors feel cheated by Wall Street's casinos.
但崩盤還是來了。經濟下滑，衰退持續了30個月，華爾街把我們的退休金拿去虧了超過八萬億美元。從2000年網絡股崩盤到2010年的災難，在21世紀的頭10年裏，華爾街經通脹因素調整後的績效爲負。今天華爾街的回報率也只是剛剛戰勝通貨膨脹。難怪投資者覺得被華爾街的賭場騙了。10. Economics is killing the economy, but like coke addicts we won't stop
10. 經濟學在害死經濟，但就像可卡因成癮者一樣，我們停不下來Nobel economists like Joseph Stiglitz, environmental activists like Bill McKibben, George Soros and the Institute for New Economic Thinking, politicians like Al Gore and other modern thinkers all warn us that traditional economists (and the banks, businesses and government agencies they work for) are addicted to bad economic theories, And they're sabotaging America's future.
約瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)等諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、比爾•麥吉本(Bill McKibben)等環保活動人士、喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)及新經濟思維研究所(Institute for New Economic Thinking)、阿爾•戈爾(Al Gore)和其他現代思想家全都提醒我們，傳統經濟學家（以及他們效力的銀行、企業和政府機構）都已對壞的經濟學理論成癮，他們在破壞美國的未來。The theories, yes, and also the bad statistics traditional economists use to mislead America: The worst offender, GDP is a narrow, misleading measure of America's long-term growth. And second, our obsessive focus on short-term numbers, daily stock closings, quarterly earnings, annual returns, is stunting America's long-term growth.
除了這些理論之外，還有傳統經濟學家用來誤導美國的壞的統計數據：最惡劣的是GDP，它在衡量美國長期增長的時候是一個狹窄的、誤導人的指標。其次，我們對短期數據（每日收盤情況、季度業績、年度回報等）的執迷正在阻礙美國的長遠增長。
