短線觀點 美聯儲9月加息概率多大

Last week, it looked like markets had bullied the US Federal Reserve into delaying interest rate increases, but over the weekend one of the central bank’s most senior and respected policymakers fought back.

上週，市場似乎讓美聯儲(Fed)陷入不得不推遲加息的境地，但在上週末，美聯儲資歷最深、最受人尊重的政策制定者之一做出了反擊。

Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chairman and the only board member aside from Janet Yellen who has actually run a central bank before (the Bank of Israel) did not overtly insist that a September rate rise was still on the table, but his message was clear.

美聯儲副主席斯坦利費希爾(Stanley Fischer)並未公開堅稱9月加息仍有的談，但他傳遞出的信息是明確的。費希爾是美聯儲理事會中除珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)以外唯一真正執掌過一家央行（以色列央行(Bank of Israel)）的成員。

Weak wage growth went unmentioned, and China warranted only a cursory sentence in Mr Fischer’s speech at Jackson Hole, the annual central banker jamboree. In contrast, the garlanded economist said that he expected inflation to head higher as temporary headwinds dissipated, and stressed that monetary policy should be tightened well before inflation returns to the 2 per cent target.

費希爾在傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會上沒有提及疲弱的薪資增長，對中國也只是一語帶過。相比之下，這位享有盛譽的經濟學家表示，他預計隨着暫時性逆風消散，通脹將會走高，並強調稱，應該在通脹遠未重返2%的目標水平前收緊貨幣政策。

His words helped push the probability of a rate increase next month, as measured by interest rate futures, up from a low of just 22 per cent last week to 36 per cent yesterday. Admittedly, Mr Fischer only kept the possibility alive, and other policymakers take a less sanguine view of the recent bout of turmoil.

他的言論幫助提升了下月加息的可能性——以利率期貨市場的行情衡量，美聯儲下月加息的概率上週僅爲22%，昨日已升至36%。誠然，費希爾只是確保了加息的可能性依然存在，其他政策制定者對最近這波市場動盪的看法則不那麼樂觀。

Last week, New York Fed head William Dudley said he felt that the turbulence had made the case for near-term rate increases “less compelling”, and a wide variety of economists and bond market veterans agree.

上週，紐約聯儲(New York Fed)主席威廉達德利(William Dudley)表示，他認爲市場動盪讓近期加息的理由“不那麼有說服力”。形形色色的經濟學家和債市資深人士都同意這種看法。