歐洲一體化將錯過一個罕見的機遇?

Economies are growing; unemployment is falling. From Paris comes an avalanche of ideas to reinvigorate the EU. In Berlin, a polite public reception for French president Emmanuel Macron’s expansive vision struggles to conceal an ever tightening grip on Germany’s cheque book. Is Europe, you wonder, about to miss a rare opportunity?

經濟在增長；失業率在下降。巴黎提出了一堆重振歐盟(EU)的想法。在柏林，對法國總統埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)遠大抱負的公開禮貌迴應，很難掩蓋德國日益收緊支票簿的事實。人們不禁在想，歐洲一體化事業是否即將錯過一個罕見的機遇？

For several years, Germany bemoaned the absence of a serious partner in Paris — a politician in the Elysée ready to modernise the French economy and restore the Franco-German dynamic to EU politics. If only, German policymakers lamented, the burden of European leadership could again be shared.

德國多年來抱怨在法國政府中找不到一個正經的合作伙伴，即愛麗捨宮中沒有一位有如下決心的政治家：讓法國經濟現代化、並恢復法國在歐盟政治中與德國對等的地位。德國政策制定者哀嘆道，要是領導歐洲的重擔再次有人來分擔就好了。

Angela Merkel’s government has got what it asked for. And more. Mr Macron’s passionate Europeanism is fused with the realism that says that France must put its own economic house in order. The months since the presidential election have seen the budget deficit cut, labour laws liberalised and taxes reduced. Mr Macron is paying for his seat at the table.

安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)政府的這個願望得到了滿足——可以說得到了超額滿足。馬克龍炙熱的歐洲主義融合了現實主義，後者告訴他：法國必須理順自己的經濟。自大選以來的幾個月裏，法國削減了預算赤字、放鬆了勞工法並削減了稅賦。馬克龍正在爲獲得自己的話語權付出實實在在的努力。

For Europe, the timing is as good as it is likely to get. The need for Europe to reinvent itself — for reforms to align the EU’s capacity with today’s challenges — for once coincides with the opportunity.

對歐洲一體化事業來說，時機再好不過了。歐洲重塑自身的需求——通過改革讓自身能力能夠應對當今挑戰——總算與機遇相吻合了。

Some problems may not go away soon — the slide to illiberalism in parts of eastern Europe, the collision between Spain and Catalan separatists. But the cloud of perpetual crisis has lifted. Economic confidence in the eurozone is at its highest since 2001, the migration crisis has abated and populism mostly has been temporarily checked.

一些問題可能不會很快消失——東歐某些地方出現反自由主義的倒退，西班牙政府與加泰羅尼亞分裂主義者槓上了。但持久性危機的陰雲已經散去。歐元區的經濟信心處於2001年以來的最高水平，移民危機緩解，民粹主義也基本上暫時得到遏制。

The challenges speak for themselves. The eurozone has been patched up, but the monetary union lacks strong economic foundations. The monopolistic power of American technology behemoths calls for an EU-wide sharpening of competition and tax rules. The 2015 refugee crisis exposed the weakness of the Union’s external frontier and tensions between national immigration rules and the Schengen open borders regime. Populism has exposed real grievances among the left-behinds.

挑戰不言而喻。歐元區的窟窿得到了修補，但這個貨幣聯盟缺乏堅實的經濟基礎。美國科技巨頭的壟斷力量，要求在整個歐盟範圍內出臺更爲嚴厲的反壟斷和稅收法規。2015年難民危機暴露出兩點：歐盟外部邊界的脆弱、成員國自己的移民法規與申根開放邊境制度之間的矛盾。民粹主義暴露出被落在後面的人們發自內心的不滿。

Framed with the outsize confidence of a politician who had just upended the political order of France’s Fifth Republic, the vivid colours of Mr Macron’s project were always going to clash with the greys of Berlin. What I see now, however, are German politicians falling into a trap that the Brits never stepped out from during four decades of EU membership. Europe, in this self-defeating mindset, is a series of zero-sum transactions — entries on a bean-counter’s balance sheet, rather than the backbone of the continent’s peace and prosperity.

作爲一名剛剛顛覆了法蘭西第五共和國政治秩序的政治家，馬克龍眼下信心爆棚，他描繪的多彩圖景與柏林的灰色現實發生碰撞是不可避免的。然而，我現在看到的是，德國政治家正在踏入一個陷阱，這個陷阱正是英國在身爲歐盟成員國的40年時間裏始終未能掙脫的。以這種自己害自己的心態來看，歐洲一體化是一系列零和交易——是一個“鐵公雞”在資產負債表上記錄的一筆筆賬，而非支撐歐洲大陸和平和繁榮的支柱。

The Germany of not so long ago took a broader view. Not from altruism but for good reasons of selfish national interest. The Federal Republic’s economic welfare and physical security, not to say the reunification of the two Germanies, has all along rested on the three pillars of the postwar European order. Now they are being called into question.

就在不久前，德國還是視野寬闊的——不是出於利他主義，而是出於一些純粹考慮本國利益的充分理由。德意志聯邦共和國的經濟福祉和國土安全——更不用說兩德的統一——全都有賴於戰後歐洲秩序的三個支柱。現在，這幾個支柱正受到質疑。

The EU was at once the instrument of reconciliation with France and the answer to the fabled German question — how to accommodate a nation too big for its own continent and yet too small for the world. More than incidentally, it also supplied the marketplace for resurgent German industry. The Nato alliance added an essential security guarantee in the form of the US presence on the continent; and the Helsinki accords of 1975 put to rest the quarrels over borders long at the heart of European wars.

歐盟既是與法國實現和解的工具，又是如下這個著名德國問題的答案：如何容納一個對歐洲來說太大、對世界而言又太小的國家？歐盟也爲復興的德國工業提供了市場，這不僅僅是偶然。通過讓美國參與歐洲的防衛，北約(NATO)帶來了重要的安全保障；而1975年的《赫爾辛基協議》(Helsinki)結束了長期處於歐洲戰爭核心的一些邊界糾紛。

Events are chipping away at each of the three. Donald Trump’s elevation to the White House puts a question mark over how long the US will remain a European power. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine scorns the terms of Helsinki. For its part, the EU is losing Britain — an awkward partner maybe, but a European power for all that.

這三個支柱正在受到一系列事件的削弱。唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選爲美國總統，讓美國還會在歐洲呆多久成了未知數。俄羅斯吞併克里米亞併入侵烏克蘭東部，踐踏了《赫爾辛基協議》達成的條件。歐盟本身失去了英國——儘管英國對歐盟事業一直不能算熱心，但它畢竟是一個歐洲強國。

When Berlin’s policymakers dismiss Mr Macron’s plans for a eurozone budget as no more than a call for additional cash transfers from German taxpayers, they turn away from this broader understanding of the national interest. When politicians say the answer to eurozone strains is for others to behave more like, well, Germany, you wonder whether we are on the road from a European Germany to a German Europe.

當柏林政策制定者把馬克龍的歐元區預算計劃視爲只不過是要求德國納稅人掏更多錢的計劃時，他們就放棄了對國家利益更高瞻遠矚的那種理解。當政客們表示解決歐元區危機的辦法是讓其他國家學習德國的行事方式時，人們不禁納悶，我們是否正在走上一條從屬於歐洲的德國轉向屬於德國的歐洲的道路？

The game is not lost. If one effect of the success in the election of the xenophobic Alternative for Germany was to shift politics in a nationalist direction, another was to persuade mainstream politicians that Germany badly needs a new deal to underpin Schengen. Reform of Schengen in return for strengthening the eurozone?

這盤棋並沒有輸。如果說排外的德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)在選舉中的勝利的一個影響是讓政治轉向民族主義方向，那另一個影響就是說服主流政治家，德國亟需一份新協議來支持申根。是不是應該爲加強歐元區而改革申根協議？

The chancellor’s allies say she is constrained for the moment by the sensitive coalition negotiations with the more Eurosceptic Free Democrats. Ms Merkel will never be an instinctive European, but she understands the geopolitics that root Germany’s interests in the architecture of European integration.

默克爾的盟友們表示，她正在與立場更偏向“疑歐”的自由民主黨(Free Democrat)進行敏感的結盟談判，這讓她眼下束手束腳。默克爾永遠不會本能地支持歐洲一體化，但是她理解讓德國利益紮根於歐洲一體化架構中的地緣政治。

Others will tell you that France and Germany always start from very different places. French enthusiasm and German scepticism mark a natural division of labour. What matters is they then show the political will to strike a balance. Maybe. In Mr Macron France has a leader with the courage to speak for a stronger Europe. He is waiting for an answer from Berlin.

其他人將會告訴你，法德一開始總是分歧很大。法國的熱情和德國的多疑代表着一種天然的“勞動分工”。重要的是，他們之後拿出達成妥協的政治意願。或許如此。法國如今有了一個有勇氣主張加強歐洲一體化的領導人——馬克龍，他正在等待柏林的答覆。