郭樹清擔任銀監會主席傳遞怎樣的改革信號

SHANGHAI — As a top stock market regulator, Guo Shuqing cemented a reputation as an economic reformer who tried to bring market-oriented changes to China’s fraud-ridden and heavily politicized financial system.

上海——郭樹清作爲經濟改革者的聲譽，是在他擔任股票市場最高監管官員時樹立起來的，當時他試圖把以市場爲導向的變革引入中國充滿欺詐和嚴重政治化的金融系統。

During just 17 months in the role, he issued 80 major directives, moving to stop chronic insider trading, curb market manipulation and remove barriers for foreign investors. It earned him the occasional nickname Whirlwind Guo.

在擔任證監會主席的短短17個月裏，他發佈了80條重要指示，旨在阻止長期存在的內幕交易問題，遏制操縱市場的行爲，以及消除對外國投資者設置的障礙。這些做法使得人們有時將他稱爲“郭旋風”。

Now Mr. Guo has returned to Beijing to tackle an even bigger problem: the murky, debt-laden Chinese banking system.

現在，郭樹清已回到北京來解決一個更大的問題：不清不白且負債沉重的中國銀行系統。

On Friday the state news media said that he was named chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, succeeding Shang Fulin, who had reached the mandatory retirement age of 65. The Chinese commercial news media widely reported and filmed Mr. Guo’s arrival at that agency on Friday morning, where he was greeted by Mr. Shang.

中國官方新聞媒體上週五稱，他被任命爲中國銀行業監督管理委員會主席，接替已達到65歲強制退休年齡的尚福林。中國商業新聞媒體大量報道了這條消息，並拍攝了郭樹清上週五早晨到該機構上班、受到尚福林歡迎的錄像。

Mr. Guo’s appointment offers a sign that China is taking a financial overhaul seriously, though it was made among other moves that could send mixed signals about that commitment. The stakes are high: Experts widely believe that China’s weak financial system is holding back its economy, the world’s second largest.

郭樹清的任命提供了一個跡象，表明中國正在嚴肅對待金融改革問題，雖然這個任命的同時所採取的一些其他舉措，可能使得對改革的承諾發出的信號不明確。改革面臨的風險很大：專家們普遍認爲，中國軟弱無力的金融系統阻礙着中國經濟的發展，中國是世界上的第二大經濟體。

China is trying to broaden its economy beyond its traditional dependence on manufacturing, but its financial system still operates on a state-directed lend-and-spend model that has generated alarming amounts of debt even as it hinders money from reaching entrepreneurs.

中國正在努力把經濟擴展到超越傳統上依賴的製造業之外，但中國的金融體系仍按照以國家爲導向的借貸花錢的模式運行，這種模式已經產生了驚人的債務，儘管其阻礙了企業家獲得資金。

Bad loans are widely expected to soar as the economy continues to slow. At the same time, banks have become increasingly dependent on raising money through often speculative investment products that they keep off their balance sheets, making it hard to assess the risks they pose to financial stability.

隨着經濟繼續放緩，人們普遍預計壞賬會飆升。與此同時，銀行越來越多地依賴用往往是投機性的投資產品來籌集資金，這類產品並不出現在銀行的資產負債表上，讓人難以評估它們給金融穩定性帶來的風險。

Yet other appointments suggested a commitment to the status quo. The state news media on Friday said the No. 2 officials at the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning body, and the Ministry of Commerce, which oversees trade, among other things, were named to succeed their retiring bosses, who were also 65.

但是，其他的任命暗示了維持現狀的承諾。國家新聞媒體上週五稱，中國的最高經濟規劃機構國家發展和改革委員會的第二把手和商務部的第二把手，將分別接替這兩個部委即將退休的、現年65歲的一把手。

The choice to run the National Development and Reform Commission, He Lifeng, served from 2009 to 2012 as the deputy secretary of Tianjin. He helped oversee the construction of a forest of office and residential skyscrapers at the city’s fringes that have barely been occupied and have become one of the many symbols of China’s dependence on investment-led growth that is often wasteful.

何立峯被任命爲國家發展和改革委員會的主任，他曾於2009年至2012年擔任天津市委副書記。在他的主管下，天津在城市邊緣地區建設了成片的辦公樓和住宅摩天大廈，這些建築一直幾乎空着，並已成爲中國依賴投資主導型增長的許多標誌之一，這種經濟增長模式往往製造很多的浪費。

China could signal its commitment to a financial overhaul with any changes at the top of its central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Zhou Xiaochuan, widely considered a reformist voice in China, is more than two years past retirement age, so predicting his departure has become a popular parlor game in China’s financial world. Appointing Yi Gang, Mr. Zhou’s deputy, to the top could be seen as an endorsement of Mr. Zhou’s gentle advocacy of reform, though elevating Mr. Yi could also reflect Beijing’s lack of interest in rocking the boat.

中國可以通過更換央行、即中國人民銀行的領導人來表示其對金融改革的承諾。普遍被認爲代表中國改革派聲音的央行行長周小川已超過退休年齡兩年有餘，因此，預測他何時離任，已經成爲中國金融界內一種流行的猜謎遊戲。任命周小川的副手易綱擔任央行行長將會被看作是對周小川溫和倡導改革的一種認可，雖然易綱的晉升也會反映北京對打破現狀不感興趣。

The shuffle comes at a delicate time for China’s financial leadership. Its competence was called into question in 2015, when conflicting signals contributed to a stock market crash and increased government controls. Experts say either the banking commission or the central bank could get added responsibilities should China try to streamline financial regulation.

這次調整，對中國金融領導層來說發生在一個微妙的時刻。金融領導層的能力在2015年受到質疑，當時，矛盾的信號導致了股市的崩潰，並導致政府加大了控制。專家表示，如果中國試圖簡化金融監管的話，銀監會或中央銀行的職能可能會增加。

Mr. Guo faces an immediate challenge in reasserting the authority of the banking commission, also known as the C.B.R.C. Like the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Chinese central bank has clawed away from banking regulators a considerable part of their authority to oversee whether banks are lending prudently. The Chinese central bank has also played an increasingly critical role in fighting money laundering and capital flight.

郭樹清在維護銀監會的權威上面臨着一個直接的挑戰。與美國的聯邦儲備委員會一樣，爲了監督銀行是否謹慎借貸，中國央行已經從銀行監管機構那裏拿走了相當一部分權力。中國央行在打擊洗錢和資本外流方面也在發揮越來越重要的作用。

“An appointment as the head of the C.B.R.C. today is not as significant as the same appointment five years ago because the People’s Bank of China has taken over many of the regulatory oversight tasks,” said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese finance and factional politics at the University of California at San Diego.

“如今被任命爲銀監會主席，不像五年前同樣的任命那樣重要，因爲中國人民銀行已經接管了許多監管任務，”加州大學聖地亞哥分校中國金融和派系政治方面的專家史宗瀚(Victor Shih)說。

China could tip its hand on that matter after the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress, its top lawmaking body, which begins March 5. It may then hold a top-level financial work conference in April on reorganization that was originally planned for January or February.

中國可能在一年一度的全國人民代表大會之後對金融改革攤牌，這個全國最高立法機構的會議將於3月5日召開。那之後，中國可能在4月份召開原計劃於1月或2月舉行的有關重組問題的高級金融工作會議。

Some experts viewed the recall of Mr. Guo to Beijing as a sign that policy changes are coming. “It’s probably a signal for fundamental reforms in China’s financial regulatory framework,” said Zhu Ning, a Tsinghua University economist.

一些專家認爲，郭樹清被召回北京是政策變化即將出臺的跡象。清華大學經濟學家朱寧說，“這可能是中國金融監管框架發生根本改革的信號。”

Mr. Guo could be in a good position to argue that the China Banking Regulatory Commission should have greater authority. He missed the spectacular plunge of the Chinese stock markets in 2015, the blame for which fell in part on his successor.

郭樹清也許處於有利的地位，來爭辯中國銀行業監督管理委員會應該有更大的權威。他錯過了2015年中國股市令人驚歎的大跌，股市大跌的責任部分地落在了他的繼任者的頭上。

In a country where officials tend to either have political experience in running provinces, or economic and financial experience in working at regulatory agencies and state-controlled banks in Beijing, Mr. Guo is a rare example of someone who has done both. He served as a deputy governor of impoverished Guizhou Province in the late 1990s, then as director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. He then became the chairman of the China Construction Bank, one of China’s four main banks, from 2005.

中國的官員們通常或是通過管理省級部門獲得政治經驗，或是通過在北京的監管機構和國有銀行工作獲得經濟和金融經驗，而郭樹清是官員中一個很少見的例子，他有這兩方面的經驗。他曾在1990年代末擔任貧困的貴州省的副省長，之後曾擔任國家外匯管理局局長。他從2005年起擔任中國四大銀行之一的中國建設銀行的董事長。

He took the top job at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the top stock market regulator, in late 2011, unleashing a fury of reform efforts in just 17 months. Then just as quickly, he was gone, sent south to coastal Shandong Province as the acting governor.

2011年底，他出任中國證券監督管理委員會主席，證監會是監管股票市場的最高機構，並在短短17個月裏發動了一場大改革。然後他以同樣快的速度離任，被派往山東省擔任代理省長。

Rather than a setback to his career, it was another way to develop his economic and political chops. Within months, he rose to become the governor of Shandong Province, helping clean up the financial sector there.

但這並不是他職業生涯上的挫折，而是讓他展示自己的經濟和政治能力的又一種方式。幾個月後，他成爲山東省省長，幫助清理了山東省的金融行業。

Political analysts had said that Mr. Guo might stay in Shandong and be promoted to Communist Party secretary, the top job, above even the governor.

政治分析人士曾表示，郭樹清也許會留在山東，擔任省委書記，那是高於省長的省級最高職位。

Previous party secretaries of Shandong, a large and economically important province, have sometimes joined the Politburo, a top Communist Party leadership group, and gone on to become vice premiers with broad economic powers. Vice premiers are much more important in China than the governor of the central bank, because the central bank has no political independence in China and answers to the cabinet.

山東是中國的一個大省，有重要的經濟地位，擔任過山東省省長的人，有時能進入中國共產黨的最高領導層政治局，繼而擔任具有廣泛經濟實權的副總理。在中國，副總理比中央銀行行長更重要，因爲央行在中國沒有政治獨立性，而是聽命於國務院。

Time may be running out for Mr. Guo, who will turn 61 this year. The ministers who run the central bank and the main regulatory commissions typically retire at 65, making it harder for Mr. Guo to do a stint at the banking commission and then move on to another senior position.

郭樹清的時間可能不多了，他今年將滿61歲。央行行長和主要監管委員會的主席通常都是65歲退休，這讓郭樹清在擔任銀監會主席後擔任另外的高級職位變得有困難。