中國加大清理銀行壞賬力度
Beijing has stepped up its battle against bad debt in China’s banking system, with a state-led debt-for-equity scheme surging in value by about $100bn in the past two months alone.
北京方面加大了清理中國銀行體系中壞賬的力度，國家主導的一個債轉股計劃的價值僅在過去兩個月就飆升大約1000億美元。
The government-led programme, which forces banks to write off bad debt in exchange for equity in ailing companies, soared in value to hit more than $220bn by the end of April, up from about $120bn at the start of March, according to data from Wind Information.
這一政府主導的計劃迫使銀行註銷壞賬，以換取困境企業的股權。萬得資訊(Wind Information)數據顯示，該計劃的價值從3月初的大約1200億美元飆升至4月底的2200多億美元。
Industry watchers have fiercely debated how far Beijing will go to recapitalise the financial system, with bad loans taking up an ever higher percentage of banks’ balance sheets — as much as 19 per cent by some estimates. The latest figures for the debt-to-equity swap, and a debt-to-bonds swap initiated last year, show a subtle bailout is already under way.
對於北京方面將付出多大努力對金融體系進行資本重組，行業觀察人士展開了激烈辯論。目前不良貸款佔中國各銀行資產的百分比越來越高——有人估計高達19%。債轉股的最新數據，以及去年啓動的債務轉債券，都顯示一場低調紓困行動正在進行中。
“One can argue the government-led recapitalisation is already happening in an atypical way and thus reducing the need for recapitalisation in its written sense,” said Liao Qiang, director of financial institutions at S&P Global Ratings in Beijing.
“人們可以說，政府主導的資本重組已經在以一種非典型的方式發生，從而減少對字面意義上的資本重組的需要，”標普全球評級(S&P Global Ratings)常駐北京的金融機構總監廖強表示。
Chinese media reported that up to Rmb4tn ($612bn) had been approved in 2015 for the debt-to-bonds swap, which has seen state-controlled banks trade short-term loans to companies connected to local governments in exchange for bonds with much longer maturities.
據中國媒體報道，2015年已經批准了高達4萬億元人民幣（合6120億美元）債務轉債券，這種操作意味着，國有控股的銀行把發放給地方政府關聯企業的短期貸款，置換成期限長得多的債券。
That programme has been hailed a success in that it relieved the pressure on local governments that were forced to take out bank loans to proceed with public works projects in the absence of municipal bond markets.
該計劃被譽爲一項成功，因爲它化解了地方政府受到的壓力；前些年地方政府在沒有市政債券市場的情況下，被迫用銀行貸款推進公共工程項目。
The debt-to-equity project has received far less enthusiasm from analysts, who say that coercing banks to become stakeholders in companies that could not pay back loans will further weigh down profits this year. Instead of underpinning stability at banks, Mr Liao says the efforts undermine it.
分析師們迄今對債轉股計劃遠遠沒有那麼熱情，他們表示，脅迫銀行成爲那些無力償還貸款的企業的利益相關者，將在今年進一步拖累利潤。廖強稱，債轉股非但沒有支撐銀行的穩定性，反而削弱了銀行的穩定。
The programmes are just two fronts in Beijing’s battle against bad debt.
這些計劃只是北京方面應對壞賬的兩條戰線。
The state-controlled asset management companies that bailed out the country’s four national commercial banks 15 years ago have become increasingly active over the past two years in buying up portfolios of bad debt. Regional asset managers run by provincial governments are doing the same business on a local level.
15年前曾經紓困中國四大國有商業銀行的國有控股的資產管理公司，過去兩年在購買壞賬組合方面日趨活躍。由省級政府運營的地方資產管理公司在地方一級開展着同樣的業務。
The government is also reopening the market for securitising bad debt with two deals worth Rmb534m due this month. The efforts have even gone online, with debt managers hawking off bad loans on China’s biggest online retail site.
政府還重啓了不良貸款證券化市場，本月的兩筆交易價值5.34億元人民幣。這些努力甚至上了網，債務管理公司在中國最大的在線零售網站兜售不良貸款。
The average rate of non-performing loans at China’s commercial banks hit an official 1.75 per cent at the end of March, according to the banking regulator. That marks the 11th straight quarter that the government-approved figures have risen.
根據銀行業監管機構的數據，中國各商業銀行的平均不良貸款率官方數字在3月底達到1.75%。這標誌着這些政府批准的數字連續第11個季度上漲。
But the official data does not include a much larger stockpile of so-called zombie loans that some analysts say could in future require a more formal bailout for the banks.
但官方數據不包括所謂的殭屍貸款；一些分析師表示，規模大得多的殭屍貸款存量意味着，未來可能需要對銀行進行一場更爲正式的紓困。
Francis Cheung, analyst at CLSA, estimates that bad debt accounted for 15-19 per cent of banks’ loan books at the end of last year and that the government may have to add Rmb10.6tn of new capital to the banking system, or 15.6 per cent of gross domestic product.
里昂證券(CLSA)分析師鄭名凱(Francis Cheung)估計，截至去年底，壞賬佔中國各銀行貸款賬簿的15%至19%，政府可能不得不向銀行體系注入10.6萬億元人民幣的新資本，相當於15.6%的國內生產總值(GDP)。
David Mann, Standard Chartered’s chief Asia economist, has noted that the problem has been exacerbated by “shadow financing”, an all-encompassing term for banks’ off balance-sheet lending that skirts regulations. However, Mr Mann argued in a recent report that the many programmes China has deployed to fight bad debt would reduce the need for a direct bailout of the system.
渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)亞洲區首席經濟學家馬德威(David Mann)指出，“影子金融”（泛指規避監管的銀行表外放貸）加劇了這個問題。不過，馬德威在最近一份報告中提出，中國爲了清理壞賬而實施的衆多計劃，將減少對銀行體系進行直接紓困的需要。
Shadow lending hit about Rmb40tn at the end of last year, or about 59 per cent of GDP, according to CLSA. While much of that is not distressed, its opacity makes it difficult to assess its risk or to regulate it.
據里昂證券估計，中國的影子貸款總額在去年底達到大約40萬億元人民幣，爲GDP的59%左右。儘管其中有很大一部分並非不良貸款，但其不透明性意味着很難評估其風險，或對其進行監管。
