國際清算銀行拉響警報 中國恐面臨嚴重銀行危機
A key gauge of stress in the banking sector is now more than three times above the danger level, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says in its latest quarterly review.
國際清算銀行在其最新季度評論中指出，中國銀行業一項關鍵應力指標目前已經超過危險水平三倍以上。China's credit-to-GDP gap hit 30.1 in the first quarter of 2016, it said. The BIS considers a credit-to-GDP gap of 10 to be a sign of potential danger.
該銀行表示，中國2016年第一季信貸與GDP之比觸及30.1。而國際清算銀行將信貸與GDP之比達到10作爲一個潛在危險的標誌。The BIS calculates the gap by looking at borrowing in relation to the size of the economy, and comparing that with the long-term trend of that ratio.
要想計算這一差額數據，國際清算銀行首先要查找借貸和經濟規模的關係，並且將這一數據和長期比率走勢進行比較。
When the two start to diverge, the BIS argues, a banking crisis could be on the way.
國際清算銀行認爲，當兩者開始出現分歧的時候，銀行危機可能就要發生了。
The BIS has a central position in global finance as it provides banking services to central banks and monitors the international flow of money and credit.
國際清算銀行處於全球金融的中心地位，因爲該銀行爲各國央行提供銀行服務，並且監控貨幣和信貸的國際流動。The health of China's banking sector has long been a source of concern for financial markets.
中國銀行業的健康狀況一直以來都是金融市場所擔憂的問題。Since the financial crisis of 2007-2008 there has been a boom in credit as the Chinese government has attempted to spur flagging growth.
自從2007-2008年的金融危機以來，中國市場增加了大量信貸，因爲中國政府試圖以此來刺激經濟增長。But some of that lending has not been productive and the IMF estimates that loans worth $1.3 trillion are at risk of default.
但是部分貸款並沒有帶來經濟的繁榮，國際貨幣基金組織估計1.3萬億美元的貸款存在違約風險。However, as the Chinese banking system is largely owned or controlled by the government, analysts say it would bail out the banking sector if necessary.
不過，由於中國銀行系統大部分都是由政府擁有或控制，因此分析人士認爲，如果有必要的話中國政府將會出手幫助銀行業渡過難關。
