國際清算銀行警告負利率政策的反作用
Negative interest rates risk backfiring the longer and more deeply central banks in Europe and Japan venture into this unconventional monetary policy, economists from the Bank for International Settlements have warned.
國際清算銀行(BIS)經濟學家發出警告，歐洲和日本央行的負利率政策冒險越久、越深，這一非常規貨幣政策越可能產生反作用。
The caution over one of the most important experiments in monetary policy’s history comes before the European Central Bank’s meeting on March 10. Markets expect the ECB to push its deposit rate deeper into negative territory by 10 basis points to minus 0.4 per cent to help stave off the threat of deflation.
在3月10日歐洲央行(ECB)舉行會議前，國際清算銀行向這個貨幣政策史上最重要的實驗之一提出警告。市場預期歐洲央行將把存款利率推至更深的負值區間，即降息10個基點，至-0.4%，以幫助阻擋通貨緊縮的威脅。
Policy makers view negative rates as part of their strategy to raise worringly low inflation. But the strategy is attracting criticism from other central banks, who say they are engaging in deliberate and short-sighted attempts to weaken currencies. Financial investors are also critical, arguing that banks are having to foot too much of the bill for the experiment.
爲提高低得令人擔憂的通脹率，政策制定者將負利率視作其策略的一部分。但該策略已引發其他央行批評，稱他們在有意而短視地試圖削弱其貨幣。金融投資者也提出批評，認爲銀行將不得不爲這場實驗付出太多代價。
Dubbed the central bankers’ central bank, the BIS published research on Sunday which cautioned that it was difficult to predict how individuals or financial institutions would behave if rates were to fall further below zero or stay negative for a long period.
被稱爲“央行的央行”的國際清算銀行在上週日發表研究報告，警告說如果利率在零以下進一步下降，或長期處於負值，很難預測個人或金融機構將如何表現。
While central banks’ negative rates had impacted borrowing costs in the money markets that banks use to fund themselves, they were yet to affect businesses and households in the way that normal cuts would.
儘管央行的負利率已經影響了銀行用以融資的貨幣市場的借款成本，但尚未像常規降息那樣影響到企業和家庭。
It was unknown, the BIS said, how borrowers and savers would react or whether the channels through which central banks’ rate moves are usually passed on to the broader economy would “continue to operate as in the past”.
國際清算銀行表示，尚不清楚借款者和儲戶會作何反應，也不清楚通常將央行利率變動傳遞給整體經濟的通道是否會“繼續像過去那樣運作”。
The economists also warned that the policy could have serious consequences for the financial sector. Banks have so far taken the brunt of negative interest rates, and have not passed on most of the cost of the cuts to their customers. “The viability of banks’ business model as financial intermediaries may be brought into question,” the research stated.
這些經濟學家還警告稱，該政策可能對金融部門造成嚴重後果。目前受負利率衝擊的主要是銀行，後者還未將降息的大部分成本轉嫁給客戶。該項研究稱：“銀行作爲金融中介機構的營運模式的可行性或將受到質疑。”
The ECB and the Bank of Japan are the biggest central banks to have taken rates negative. Others include Sweden’s Riksbank, which cuts its main repo rate last month to negative 0.5 per cent, and the Swiss central bank, which has lowered rates to minus 0.75 per cent.
歐洲央行和日本央行(BoJ)是實行負利率的規模最大的央行。其他央行還包括上月將主要回購利率降至-0.5%的瑞典央行(Riksbank)，以及已將利率降至-0.75%的瑞士央行(SNB)。
There are increasing doubts about whether negative rates work -- the BoJ’s surprise move into negative territory halted the yen’s appreciation only for a matter of days.
對於負利率能否奏效的質疑也越來越多——日本央行實行負利率的意外舉動僅僅讓日元升值暫停了幾天時間。
Pointing to some unexpected effects, the BIS research finds that retail deposits have been insulated from the policy and that some mortgage rates in Switzerland have “perversely increased” .
國際清算銀行指出了一些意想不到的影響，其研究發現，零售存款並未受到這一政策影響，而瑞士一些抵押貸款利率“反而出現上升”。
“If negative policy rates do not feed into lending rates for households and firms, they largely lose their rationale,” said BIS economists, Morten Bech and Aytek Malkhozov. “On the other hand, if negative policy rates are transmitted to lending rates for firms and households, then there will be knock-on effects on bank profitability unless negative rates are also imposed on deposits, raising questions as to the stability of the retail deposit base.”
“如果負政策利率無法影響面向家庭和企業的貸款利率，那它們很大程度上就失去了存在的意義，”國際清算銀行經濟學家莫滕•本奇(Morten Bech)和艾泰克•馬爾霍佐夫(Aytek Malkhozov)說，“另一方面，如果負政策利率轉導至面向企業和家庭的貸款利率，那麼，將對銀行的盈利能力產生連鎖效應，除非對存款也實行負利率，而這會對零售存款基礎的穩定性造成疑問。”
