中國人民銀行預測明年GDP增速下跌至6.8%

China's annual economic growth is likely to slow to 6.8 percent next year from an expected 6.9 percent this year, the People's Bank of China said in a working paper published on Wednesday.

中國人民銀行在本週三發佈的工作文件中稱，明年中國經濟的年增長率將由今年預計的6.9%下跌至6.8%。

The world's second-largest economy still faces downward pressure and the impact of fiscal and monetary policies that were rolled out this year will be evident by the first half of 2016, the central bank said in the research report.

央行在研究報告中提到，世界第二大經濟體仍然面臨着下行壓力，並且今年鋪展開的財政和貨幣政策會在2016年上半年會逐漸顯現效果。

"Although downward pressures on growth will persist for a while due to overcapacity, profit deceleration, and rising non-performing loans, we expect that the number of positive factors will gradually increase in 2016," it said.

報告原文說：“儘管由產能過剩、利潤減速、不良貸款增加等因素引起的增長下行壓力還將持續一段時間，我們期望有利因素的數目會在2016年逐漸增加。”

Recent appreciation in the yuan's real effective exchange rate (REER) has put pressure on China's exports, the central bank report said, adding that keeping the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate relatively stable could help exports.

央行報告稱，最近的人民幣實際有效匯率的增值給中國出口帶來壓力；並補充說保持人民幣貿易加權兌換率相對穩定有利於出口增長。

Meanwhile, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a top government think tank, predicted in its "blue book" the economy could expand at a slower pace between 6.6 percent and 6.8 percent in 2016 due to weak external demand and cooling domestic investment.

同時，政府頂級智囊團中國社科院在其藍皮書中預測，由於外部需求疲軟以及國內投資降溫，2016年經濟增長會更加緩慢，增速徘徊在6.6%到6.8%之間。

The think tank recommended that China should widen its fiscal deficit to 2.12 trillion yuan ($327.6 billion) next year from a planned 1.62 trillion yuan in 2015, keeping the deficit to GDP ratio within the warning level of 3 percent.

中科院建議中國政府在明年應該將財政赤字由原計劃的1.62萬億元擴大到2.12萬億元，使其在警戒水平3%之內與GDP持平。

"It's quite necessary for China to increase strength on its fiscal policy as the economy faces downward and deflation pressure," said Li Xuesong, an economist at CASS, told a media conference.

中科院的經濟學家李雪松在新聞發佈會上說：“在經濟面臨下行和通縮壓力之際，中國很有必要增加財政政策的力度。”

China's Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said last month that economists the world over should reconsider what constitutes a danger zone for deficit-to-GDP ratios, in comments that some analysts took as a hint of more aggressive stimulus to come.

上月，中國財政部副部長朱光耀說全世界的經濟學家們應該重新考慮究竟是什麼組成了赤字佔GDP比率的危險地帶。在評論中，有些分析員認爲這些話是更加激進的刺激手段的先兆。

The government has embarked on its most aggressive policy easing since the depths of the global financial crisis, including six interest rate cuts since November 2014, in a bid to hit its economic growth target of around 7 percent this year.

自全球經濟危機邁入嚴峻階段，中國政府已經釋放出最激進的政策。其中包括自2014年11月來的六次下調利率來下注刺激今年的經濟增長目標保持在7%左右。

The central bank expects China's fixed-asset investment, a key driver of the economy, to grow 10.8 percent in 2016 from this year, as property investment gradually stablises, according to the report written by Ma Jun, the bank's chief economist, and other central bank economists.

由央行首席經濟學家馬俊和其他央行經濟學家撰寫的報告提到，在產權投資逐漸趨於穩定之際，央行期望中國的固定資產能夠自今年起在2016年增長10.8%。固定資產額是國家經濟關鍵驅動力之一。

China's retail sales, a key gauge of domestic consumption, could grow an annual 11.1 percent next year, it said.

報告稱，作爲國內消費的關鍵衡量指標，中國的零售銷售額在明年能夠實現增長11.1%的年增長率。

China's exports are expected to rise an annual 3.1 percent in 2016 while imports are forcast to grow 2.3 percent, the PBOC said in its projections.

央行在預測中提到，2016年，中國年出口額預計會上升3.1%，而進口額會上升2.3%。

China's annual consumer inflation may quicken to 1.7 percent in 2016 from an expected 1.5 percent this year. The producer price index is forecast to fall 1.8 percent in 2016, moderating from an expected 5.2 percent drop in 2015.

有別於今年預測的1.5%，2016年中國的年度通貨膨脹會加速上升至1.7%；而生產價格指數則預計會下跌1.8%，較2015年預測的5.2%下跌較緩。