金錢再多也堆不出世界銀行的未來
When in doubt, lend more. The modus operandi that has inspired the World Bank since its creation in 1944 is still in operation. Jim Yong Kim, who took over as president in 2012, has had a torrid time trying to impose his management ideas on the perennially fractious and fractured organisation. Now he is asking the bank’s shareholder countries for an increase in its capital base.
不能確定的話，就加大放貸吧。自世界銀行(World Bank) 1944年成立以來一直指引該機構的操作方式依然在發揮作用。2012年接任世行行長的金墉(Jim Yong Kim)試圖把自己的管理理念貫徹到這個長期難以駕馭和各自爲政的組織，爲此經歷了一段艱難的時期。如今，他要求世行的股東國幫助增加該行的資本基礎。
He is unlikely to get his way soon. The US Congress in particular is no fan of doling out cash to multilateral agencies. Yet even in a more conducive political environment, it is hard to see that increasing the bank’s capacity without reforming its fundamental model will make much difference in tackling the most pressing problems in the developing countries it is meant to serve.
他不太可能很快實現自己的願望。美國國會對於向多邊機構撥款尤其不感興趣。然而，即使在更有利的政治環境中，也很難看到在不改革世行基本模式的情況下，增加其資本基礎將對解決發展中國家（世行應服務的對象）最緊迫的問題產生多大實效。
Despite multiple reorganisations, the bank is an institution in search of a unique selling proposition. Its traditional role was to lend (and give grants) to individual countries, for infrastructure projects and more recently to support structural reform. But the expansion of large-scale private capital markets has usurped this function. The bank increased its lending during the financial crisis as private markets seized up, but has since scaled back.
儘管經過了多次重組，世行仍是一家尋找獨特賣點的機構。其傳統角色是貸款給（或資助）個別國家，用於基礎設施項目以及（近年來）支持經濟結構改革。但大規模私人資本市場的擴張已經取代了世行的這個功能。金融危機期間私人市場失靈時，世行增加了放貸，但此後貸款規模又逐漸縮減。
More recently, its role has been supplanted by the proliferation of nimbler regional development banks such as the African Development Bank and the Andean Development Corporation, some of which have weaker social and environmental safeguards constraining their activities. Most recently, the World Bank’s declining relative influence was underlined by the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will recycle some of China’s vast foreign exchange reserves to its neighbours.
近年來，世行的角色被不斷涌現的更爲靈活的地區開發銀行取代，如非洲開發銀行(African Development Bank)、安第斯開發公司(Andean Development Corporation)等，其中一些銀行在制約其業務活動的社會和環境保障機制上較弱。最近，亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB，簡稱亞投行）的創建突顯了世行不斷衰落的相對影響力，亞投行將把中國龐大外匯儲備的一部分投入其鄰國。
Increasing the bank’s capital base will not reverse this decline. The scale of the developing world’s infrastructure needs will ensure the bank remains a small player. Nor is the bank likely to be given more money because of Mr Kim’s contention that more aid is needed to help countries hit the new UN “sustainable development goals”. Those targets are a mess, comprising 17 objectives divided into 169 subcategories, many hopelessly vague. In any case, it is past time to abandon the mechanistic idea that aid can be fed into the system and a predictable development gain emerge.
增加世行的資本基礎不會扭轉這種頹勢。發展中國家基礎設施需求的規模意味着，世行註定只能發揮較小的作用。世行也不大可能因爲金墉斷言需要更多援助來幫助各國實現聯合國最新出爐的“可持續發展目標”而獲得更多資金。這些目標本身就是一團糟，包括17個大目標以及169個子目標，其中很多含糊地無可救藥。無論如何，世界早就應該放棄這樣一種機械式的觀念，即只要向體制內輸入援助，就能取得可預見的發展成就。
There are plenty of gaps to be plugged in the collective global effort to make the human race richer, healthier and safer. Research into new strains of crops, cures for diseases in poor countries and new technologies to slow or mitigate climate change are undersupplied by the patchwork of government, charitable and private sector effort.
在使人類變得更富裕、更健康和更安全的全球集體努力中，還有大量空白需要填補。研究新的作物品種、治療貧窮國家疾病的新方法以及減緩或減輕氣候變化的新技術，僅靠政府、慈善機構和私營部門的供應是不夠的。
Unfortunately, the holes in development finance and expertise do not match the shape of the bank’s existing tools. Despite some effort, an institution set up to lend to individual countries has struggled to broaden its operations. Few countries want to borrow to finance activities with uncertain returns such as agricultural productivity research. Budget cuts have constrained the bank’s ability to make grants to non-country specific projects, and the standalone trust funds the bank runs are also too small to make much of a difference.
令人遺憾的是，發展金融及專業技能方面的漏洞與世行現有工具的形狀並不匹配。儘管做了一些努力，爲了向個別國家放貸而建立的該機構一直難以擴大自己的業務範圍。幾乎沒有國家願意借款資助回報不確定的活動（比如農業生產率研究）。預算削減限制了世行資助非國別項目的能力，而該行旗下獨立的信託基金規模太小，也起不到多大作用。
These problems are as much the fault of the bank’s shareholders as its managers. Middle-income countries do not want to give up a source of cheap lending to see the money diverted to general good causes. They are misguided.
這些問題是世行股東國及其管理層共同造成的。中等收入國家不想放棄一項廉價貸款的來源，以至於資金被轉移到一般的公益事業。它們受到了誤導。
The bank’s policy experience makes it a natural source of ideas for growth and development, but its expertise is being underused. Its management and shareholders must find more creative ways of using its money to further its contribution. Ramping up one more source of infrastructure finance for emerging markets is a lesser priority than solving the developing world’s longer-term problems. The bank needs more money less than it needs a new mission.
世行的政策經驗使其成爲增長和發展理念的天然來源，但其專業知識並未被充分利用。世行的管理層和股東國必須找到更具創意的資金利用方式來擴大其貢獻。爲新興市場的基礎設施增加一個資金來源，不如解決發展中國家的較長期問題更重要。世行更需要的是新使命，而非更多資金。
