中國政府債券市場投資前景光明
The volatility has been dizzying in recent weeks in markets on both sides of the Pacific.
最近幾周，太平洋兩岸的市場動盪令人頭暈目眩。
In the wake of the totally predictable decision from the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates, hedge funds with consensus trades involving bullish US dollar bets and bearish positions in virtually everything else, including energy, basic materials and emerging market currencies, had their worst week in a while. For example, the Indonesian rupiah, shorthand for every disappointing commodity-based emerging market economy, shot up 9 per cent before the cynicism about the prospects of emerging markets returned in the middle of last week.
在完全在意料當中的美聯儲(Fed)暫不加息決定出爐後，那些一致押注美元走強、做空幾乎其他所有資產——包括能源、基礎原料和新興市場貨幣——的對衝基金經歷了一段時間來最難熬的一週。例如，印尼盾匯率（可代表所有表現不佳的以大宗商品爲基礎的新興市場經濟體）一度飆升9%，直到上週週中，人們纔再度不看好新興市場的前景。
Meanwhile, the renminbi remained stable. To some this was a sign that the People’s Bank of China was spending dwindling reserves on supporting the currency after changing the way the exchange rate is set back in August. That change, which was a move toward a more market oriented way of setting the rate, indirectly led to a 2 per cent drop in the value of the renminbi against the dollar.
同時，人民幣仍保持穩定。在一些人看來，這表明在8月份的匯率設定機制改革之後，中國央行正在動用不斷減少的外匯儲備支撐人民幣匯率。那次改革是向更加市場化的匯率設定機制邁出的一步，它間接地導致人民幣兌美元匯率下跌了2%。
In addition, recent data from China hardly support the dire case for the mainland. The September trade surplus jumped to more than $60bn, near its highest level ever, according to JPMorgan, and third-quarter GDP growth beat expectations at 6.9 per cent. Capital outflows at $43bn were far less than pessimists anticipated. The fear that companies selling renminbi to repay dollar debt before the cost rose would trigger a vicious cycle for the currency receded. Meanwhile, although China’s equity market is not ready for prime time, by happy contrast, the Chinese government bond market is growing up. The debt market can only benefit from Beijing’s desire for the renminbi to join the select group of countries whose currencies are part of the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights. Making its bond market more liquid, transparent and attractive necessarily follows on from that desire.
此外，中國近期發佈的數據基本上不支持看跌人民幣。摩根大通(JPMorgan)數據顯示，9月份中國貿易順差猛增至逾600億美元，接近最高紀錄。第三季度國內生產總值(GDP)增長率達到6.9%，強於預期。資本外流爲430億美元，規模比悲觀者預期的小得多。人們曾擔心，中國企業趕在償債成本升高前賣出人民幣償還美元債務的行爲，會將人民幣推入惡性循環。這種擔憂已經減弱了。另一方面，儘管中國股市還未做好迎來“黃金時段”的準備，但幸運的是，中國政府債券市場正在發展壯大。中國政府渴望人民幣被納入國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子，這種渴望只會給債券市場帶來好處。出於這種渴望，中國接下來必然會提高其債券市場的流動性、透明度和吸引力。
China continues to look far better, in fact, than most of its indebted neighbours. “China’s overall external indebtedness is limited and the debt servicing capacity of the country as a whole remains intact,” noted China International Capital Corporation in a report. “China’s foreign exchange res-erves are still more than twice the size needed to cover all its external debt and four times its foreign currency debt.”
事實上，中國的形勢看起來仍比多數債臺高築的鄰國好得多。“中國外債總體水平仍然不高，中國作爲整體的償債能力也未受到明顯影響，”中金公司(CICC)在一份報告中指出，“中國外匯儲備仍可覆蓋全部外債餘額的兩倍以上、所有外幣外債的四倍以上。”
Moreover, as the renminbi internationalises, other central banks will need to acquire renminbi assets, providing a bid both for the currency and for its debt. China’s government debt market is already by far the largest bond market in the emerging world. Moreover, while the stock market continues to gyrate, the bond market has been less volatile and actually offers positive returns. That is significant in a world where positive returns on government bonds can no longer be taken for granted, thanks to quantitative easing programmes in the developed world.
此外，隨着人民幣國際化進程的推進，其他央行將需要購買人民幣資產，這對人民幣和人民幣債券都形成了需求。在新興世界，中國政府債券市場已然是規模遙遙領先的最大債券市場。而且，在股市繼續震盪之際，債市的波動卻沒那麼大，實際上提供了正回報。這一點很重要。由於發達國家實施了量化寬鬆計劃，在當今世界上，政府債券回報爲正已不再是理所當然之事。
“The China government bond index has been steadily climbing higher over the last three quarters,” note analysts at Citigroup. “After nine months, the benchmark has generated a total return of 5.16 per cent in local currency terms and even remains in the black in US dollar currency terms.” That record compares favourably with US credit indices or the Citi World Government Bond index, the report adds. China’s capital controls mean access to the market is limited, especially for foreign investors, and the market is not yet included in global benchmark indices. The dominant players tend to be buy-and-hold investors, particularly domestic banks. Still, though, that just “means the technicals are mind-boggling”, according to Jan Dehn, London-based head of research for Ashmore Investment Management, who labels the market the best in the world. “Hardly anyone has exposure.”
“過去三個季度，中國政府債券指數一直在穩步攀升，”花旗集團(Citigroup)分析師指出，“9個月後，這一基準指數以人民幣計已產生了5.16%的總回報，即使以美元計，回報也是正的。”花旗的報告補充稱，這一成績優於美國信用指數或花旗全球政府債券指數(Citi World Government Bond index)。由於中國存在資本管制，該市場的准入受到限制，尤其是對外國投資者而言，而且該市場尚未被納入全球基準債券指數。中國政府債券市場的主要參與者是“買入並持有”型投資者，尤其是中國國內的銀行。不過，在安石投資管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)駐倫敦的研究主管簡德恩(Jan Dehn)看來，這只是“意味着在技術層面上令人頭疼”。德恩認爲，中國政府債券市場是世界上最棒的市場。“幾乎沒有誰建立了敞口。”
Moreover, China is one of the few places in the world where there is the possibility of capital gains on bond investments since interest rates are not at zero and still have further to fall, given the continuing deflation risks the country faces. At some point, perhaps the Chinese central bank will show as little regard for savers as the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and other monetary authorities that are believers in artificially lowering the price of government debt. But not yet.
此外，中國是世界上少有的幾個債券投資可能實現資本收益的國家之一，原因是該國的利率並非爲零，而且考慮到該國面臨持續的通縮風險，該國的利率仍有可能下調。有朝一日，中國央行或許會像美聯儲、歐洲央行(ECB)、瑞士央行(SNB)等相信應當人爲壓低政府債券價格的貨幣當局一樣，不把儲戶的利益放在心上。但那一日還未到來。
