花旗銀行將把中國政府債券納入多個指數

Citigroup is playing a smart game with China’s government bond market.

花旗集團正在和中國政府債券市場玩一個聰明的遊戲。

The American bank on Tuesday said that it would include sovereign debt issued by China in three existing fixed-income indexes — becoming the first major international benchmark provider to do so. That is a propaganda victory for Beijing, which has struggled to entice foreign investors. For Citigroup, it is a relatively low-risk diplomatic win.

這家美國銀行週二表示，將把中國發行的主權債務納入其三個現有的固定收益指數中——該銀行也成爲了第一個這麼做的主要國際基準提供者。這是北京宣傳工作的勝利，一直以來，北京努力吸引外國投資者。對於花旗集團來說，這則是一個風險相對較低的外交勝利。

China has been trying to attract more foreign bond buyers since the International Monetary Fund designated the renminbi as an official reserve currency last year. It has been a tough sell. The country’s capital account is not fully open, and regulation of financial markets remains ham-fisted. The renminbi has also been sliding against the dollar, while rising long-term United States interest rates make Chinese yields less attractive.

自從國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)去年指定人民幣作爲正式儲備貨幣以來，中國一直試圖吸引更多的外國債券買家。這並不容易。該國的資本賬戶尚未完全開放，對金融市場的監管仍然不得法。人民幣對美元匯率下滑，而美國長期利率的上升導致中國債券的吸引力下降。

Regulators’ efforts to squash capital outflows while encouraging inflows have made fund managers worry that recent reforms are a honey trap. Foreign investors owned Chinese bonds worth just $126 billion at the end of 2016, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange — equivalent to less than 2 percent of the onshore bond market.

中國監管機構努力壓縮資本流出，同時鼓勵資本流入，基金經理難免擔心近期的改革是“美人計”。中國外匯管理局的統計顯示，截至2016年底，外國投資者持有的中國債券價值僅爲1260億美元，不到境內債券市場的2%。

Adding China’s $1.1 trillion of government bonds to international benchmarks is therefore potentially a big deal. Funds that measure their performance against that index will have to increase their allocation to Chinese bonds. For example, China will account for almost 53 percent of the Citigroup index that tracks emerging-market sovereign debt.

因此，將中國1.1萬億美元的政府債券納入國際基準恐怕是一件大事。對照該指數衡量表現的基金必然會增加中國債券的配比。例如，中國將佔據花旗銀行跟蹤新興市場主權債務指數的近53%。

The prospect of mechanically moving large amounts of cash into China is likely to unnerve fund managers. That is the main reason MSCI has so far declined to include Chinese equities in its popular emerging-market indexes, despite the risk of upsetting Beijing.

將大量現金不加思考地轉移到中國，這種前景可能使一些基金經理感到不安。這也是摩根士丹利迄今拒絕將中國股票納入其人氣很高的新興市場指數的主要原因，儘管這麼做可能會令北京不快。

Citigroup has skirted this conundrum by choosing indexes that are not major benchmarks. Though the bank has not said how much money tracks its indexes, the financial consequences are likely to be small.

花旗集團選擇的指數並非主要基準，因而繞過了這個難題。雖然該銀行沒有說用多少錢來跟蹤指數，但財務影響可能很小。

There may be a tacit quid pro quo at work. A month ago, Chinese authorities granted Citigroup a bond settlement license. JPMorgan Chase, which operates the leading emerging-market bond index and is also contemplating including Chinese sovereign bonds, received a bond underwriting license around the same time. Watch this space.

這裏面可能存在着一個心照不宣的交換條件。一個月前，中國給予花旗集團銀行間債券市場結算代理人資格。管理着領先的新興市場債券指數、同樣也在考慮納入中國主權債券的摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，也幾乎在同一時間獲得中國銀行間債券市場企業債券承銷資格。這個領域值得注意。