智利龐大的埃斯孔迪達 銅礦企業面臨增長挑戰

The giant Chilean Escondida mine produces more copper than anywhere on earth. Some 1.2m tonnes emerge from the BHP Billiton-run facility each year.

智利龐大的埃斯孔迪達(Escondida)銅礦的銅產量位居世界第一，這座由必和必拓(BHP Billiton)運營的銅礦每年出產約120萬噸銅。

For the largest miners, Escondida also serves as a key measure for world copper output.

對大型礦企而言，埃斯孔迪達還是衡量全球銅產量的重要指標之一。

To meet global demand over the next decade, the industry “will have to add the equivalent of a new Escondida every 15 months”, says Jean-Sebastien Jacques, head of copper at Rio Tinto, which owns a minority stake in the mine. First Quantum, a mid-tier copper miner, says if China, India and Brazil reached EU levels of copper use by 2020, it would imply nine new Escondidas.

力拓(Rio Tinto)持有埃斯孔迪達的少數權益，該公司銅業務負責人讓-塞巴斯蒂安•雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)表示，爲滿足未來十年全球需求，銅礦業“必須每15個月就增加相當於一座埃斯孔迪達銅礦的產量”。中型銅礦企業First Quantum表示，如果到2020年時中國、印度和巴西的用銅量達到歐盟的水平，那就需要增加9座埃斯孔迪達。

Such predictions explain why big UK miners are talking up their growth potential in copper, even though worries over Chinese demand have driven the price of the metal to its lowest since 2010.

這類預測解釋了爲什麼英國大型礦企正在大談自己的銅產量增長潛力，儘管眼下對中國需求的擔憂已推動銅價降至2010年以來的低位。

Both Rio and BHP believe the copper market is oversupplied now but will tighten from 2018, with growing deficits. “The copper story remains very strong,” says Mike Henry, BHP’s president for marketing.

力拓和必和必拓認爲雖然銅市場目前供應過剩，但從2018年起供應將會吃緊，供需缺口將越來越大。必和必拓營銷總裁邁克•亨利(Mike Henry)說：“銅的勢頭依然強勁。”

Some of the UK’s pure-play copper miners are investing heavily in growth. Antofagasta expects to lift annual output from its Chilean mines from 700,000 tonnes last year to 900,000 tonnes by 2018. Kaz Minerals is building two mines in Kazakhstan.

英國部分單一業務銅礦商正大舉投資提高產量。安託法加斯塔(Antofagasta)希望到2018年時，將其智利銅礦的年產量將從2014年的70萬噸提升至90萬噸。哈薩克礦業(Kaz Minerals)正在哈薩克斯坦建設兩座銅礦。

For BHP and Rio, copper is especially important now that investments in sectors such as iron ore and coal appear to be coming to an end. Iron ore is heavily linked to Chinese infrastructure construction that is expected eventually to tail off, and coal could be threatened by changing environmental rules. Demand for copper is expected to be steadier: it has a wide range of applications and is forecast to be widely needed as the world’s largest economy shifts towards more consumer-led growth.

對必和必拓和力拓來說，鑑於鐵礦石及煤炭等領域的投資似乎將告一段落，銅礦就變得尤爲重要。鐵礦石與中國基礎設施建設密切相關，而中國的基建預計終會逐漸冷卻；環保規則的改變則可能會對煤炭構成威脅。銅的需求預計將更加穩定：銅的用途很多，隨着全球最大經濟體轉向更多地依靠消費來拉動經濟增長，預計銅將面臨廣泛的需求。

But the complexity and expense of projects means the larger miners may not be in a position to generate a quick acceleration of copper output.

但銅礦項目的複雜性和高昂成本意味着，較大的礦企可能難以迅速提高銅產量。

Patrick Jones, an analyst at Nomura in London, says: “The major diversified miners all have sizeable copper businesses but they all have predicaments of one kind or another when it comes to their future growth options.”

野村(Nomura)駐倫敦分析師帕特里克•瓊斯(Patrick Jones)說：“大型的多元化礦企都擁有規模可觀的銅業務，但說到未來的發展選擇，它們全都有這樣或那樣的難題。”

Escondida will suffer a dip in output in 2016 as BHP mines lower grade ores. Meanwhile, Bingham Canyon, Rio’s mine in Utah that has produced copper for more than a century, will cut output this year amid rehabilitation work.

隨着必和必拓開採的礦石品位降低，埃斯孔迪達在2016年將出現產量下降。同時，力拓在美國猶他州的賓厄姆峽谷(Bingham Canyon)銅礦今年將因修復性工作而減產，該銅礦運營已超過一個世紀。

Oyu Tolgoi, the other copper mine operated by Rio, has brought more problems. An expected underground phase of the mine has been delayed by a dispute with the Mongolian government. Rio wrote down the value of the project in 2013.

力拓運營的另一座銅礦奧尤陶勒蓋(Oyu Tolgoi)帶來了更多的問題。因與蒙古國政府產生糾紛，該礦預期中的地下開採階段已經推遲。力拓在2013年對該項目的價值進行了減計。

Rio took a step forward in December when President Barack Obama signed legislation that paves the way to build Resolution, a US copper mine expected to be one of the world’s largest. Rio owns 55 per cent of the project, with BHP owning 45 per cent.

去年12月，美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)簽署法案、爲Resolution銅礦的建設鋪平道路，此舉讓力拓向前邁進了一步。這座位於美國的銅礦預計將成爲全球最大的銅礦之一，力拓擁有該項目55%的權益，必和必拓擁有45%。

Yet obtaining all the permits for Resolution could easily take Rio another five to seven years. “There is much work ahead to complete the regulatory approval process,” cautions Mr Jacques.

然而，力拓要想爲Resolution搞到全部所需的許可證，很可能還需花費5到7年時間。雅克警告說：“還需要做大量工作才能走完監管審批程序。”

Because receiving approval for mines is so laborious, Rio and others have walked away from some projects, even if the copper resources involved are substantial. Since 2013 Rio and Anglo American have both given up on Pebble, a huge copper deposit in Alaska that is controversial for its potential effect on fisheries, for example.

由於獲取開採許可是如此的費力，力拓等礦企已經放棄了一些項目，儘管這些項目涉及的銅資源十分可觀。比如，自2013年以來，力拓和英美資源集團(Anglo American)均在Pebble銅礦上打了退堂鼓。這座巨大的銅礦位於美國阿拉斯加州，因對當地漁場有潛在影響而備受爭議。

Another challenge for miners is the expense involved in building mines. Glencore, the world’s third largest copper miner by annual output and larger in copper than any of its diversified rivals, sold its Las Bambas project in 2014 to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for about $7bn. MMG said in October that the remaining 25 per cent of construction would cost between $2.7bn and $3.2bn.

礦企面臨的另一個挑戰是礦場建設費用。嘉能可(Glencore)是全球以年產量計的第三大銅礦商，其銅產量大於所有多元化競爭對手。2014年，嘉能可以70億美元左右的價格，將旗下拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)銅礦出售給中國五礦集團(Minmetals)子公司五礦資源(MMG)。五礦資源在去年10月表示，該項目的建設工作還剩四分之一，而這部分工作的成本將在27億到32億美元之間。

Those are the sort of sums that mining companies know shareholders dislike. Glencore is unwilling to build projects and most other miners are trying to

礦業公司都知道，股東們不喜歡看到這麼大的開銷。嘉能可不願建設礦場，其他礦企則大多在努力尋找低成本的開發途徑。必和必拓擁有澳大利亞的奧林匹克壩(Olympic Dam)銅礦，2012年因可能需要的費用而放棄了一項擴張計劃。該公司準備用數年時間測試一種更廉價的加工方法。它正在斯彭斯(Spence)銅礦進行類似的嘗試。斯彭斯是位於智利的一個規模較小的項目。

find lower-cost development routes. BHP, which owns Olympic Dam, an

瓊斯說：“所有礦企都對銅很上心，因爲它們都認爲市場會在幾年後迴歸供不應求的局面。但它們正在執行和資本效益方面嘗試更精明的做法。一些礦企走到了岔路口：它們該不該擴大銅產量？它們如何能夠更精明地做到這一點？”

Australian mine, abandoned an expansion plan in 2012 because of the likely cost. The company is set to take several years to test an alternative, cheaper processing method. It is doing something similar at Spence, a smaller Chilean project.

礦業繁榮時期的失敗交易曾令力拓深受打擊，而必和必拓已表示自己不大可能通過收購來追求增長。

“All the miners are keen on copper because they all see the market returning to deficit in a few years, but they are trying to be smarter about execution and capital efficiency,” says Mr Jones. “Some of the miners are at a fork in the road: should they grow in copper and how can they do it smarter?”

必和必拓行政總裁安德魯•麥肯齊(Andrew Mackenzie)上月表示，“很難想象這類併購活動的回報能比得上”必和必拓現有銅礦項目的預期回報。“我們今天在銅業務上想表明的是，我們已經擁有所有我們想開發的銅礦項目，儘管過去並非總是如此。”