富達中國基金股價打折 Discounts widen on UK listed China funds
Five years ago, two of the most attractive investment propositions for British investors collided. Anthony Bolton, Fidelity’s famed stockpicker, launched a China fund in a year when the Asian nation’s economy grew by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter.
五年前，對英國投資者最具吸引力的兩個要素湊到了一起。富達(Fidelity)著名基金經理安東尼波頓(Anthony Bolton)推出了中國基金，那年這個亞洲國家第一季度經濟同比增長近12%。
Fast forward to 2015, and Mr Bolton’s legacy fund — now run by Australian small-cap specialist Dale Nicholls — is trading on the London stock exchange at a wide 20.5 per cent discount to net asset value, depressed by China’s surprise currency devaluation this week and volatility on the Shanghai stock market as China’s economy slows down.
到了2015年，波頓的這個基金已由澳大利亞小盤股專家戴爾尼科爾斯(Dale Nicholls)接手。在倫敦證交所上市的該基金的股價相對於資產淨值有20.5%的折讓，受人民幣最近意外貶值和中國經濟放緩之際A股市場震盪的影響。
Discounts on UK-listed China funds may look tempting for retail investors with a strong risk appetite, but amid such uncertainty, there is much to be nervous about.
對於風險偏好較強的散戶投資者而言，這支在英國上市的中國基金的價格折扣也許很誘人，但置身於這麼多的不確定性之中，實在是有很多事情讓人不安。
The dwindling numbers of China bulls argue that whilst the nation’s economic growth has slowed to 7 per cent, this level will be sustained as long as the country remains closely controlled by Beijing policymakers who determine everything from bank interest rates to birth rates.
人數越來越少的看漲中國者辯稱，雖然中國經濟增速已下降到7%，但只要北京的政策制定者仍管得住國家，中國的經濟增速就將保持在這一水平。從銀行利率到出生率，這些政策制定者決定着中國的一切。
Meanwhile, some long-term investment stories, such as the opportunity for China’s consumer economy to develop, remain compelling.
同時，一些長期投資故事仍扣人心絃，比如中國消費經濟發展的機會。
“You can see the Chinese government is trying to control the growth rate lower,” said Brewin Dolphin Asia Pacific analyst Mike Paul, referring to measures such as Beijing’s clampdown on so-called shadow lending by funds and trust companies that previously boosted growth.
券商Brewin Dolphin的亞太分析師邁克保羅(Mike Paul)說：“你可以看到中國政府正試圖以可控的方式放緩增長速度。”他提到北京方面採取措施抑制所謂的影子銀行貸款，這些貸款由基金和信託公司發放，在前些年曾推動增長。
“You can argue they can raise it again.”
“你可以說，他們能夠再次提高增速。”
He contended however, that China’s economy is opaque and its stock markets are “pretty volatile,” adding: “China does make us nervous.”
但他提出，中國經濟缺乏透明，A股市場“相當波動”，他還說：“中國確實讓我們緊張。”
Certainly, China’s central bank spooked markets this week by devaluing the Chinese currency, the renminbi, in an attempt to stoke up exports as the economy slows.
中國央行最近肯定驚嚇了市場，隨着經濟增長放緩，該行引導人民幣走低，以求促進出口。
A further worry is China’s high debt, which hit 282 per cent of GDP in mid-2014, according to McKinsey.
市場的另一個擔憂是中國的高負債，據麥肯錫(McKinsey)的數據，2014年中期中國的債務總量已達到國內生產總值(GDP)的282%。
In 2009, to shelter China’s economy from the global recession that was sparked by the subprime lending crisis in the US, Beijing prompted what could be a subprime crisis of its own.
2009年，爲保護中國經濟，使其免受美國次貸危機所引發的全球經濟衰退影響，北京方面採取了最終可能釀成中國自己的次貸危機的行動。
The country’s banks, the largest of which remain mostly owned by the state, lent an estimated $1,650bn to local governments in the aftermath of the global recession for GDP-boosting infrastructure projects. Many were unnecessary, with the artificial demand they created bloating industries such as steel, which overproduced.
全球衰退過後，中國的銀行（幾家大銀行仍主要爲國有）向地方政府貸出了1.65萬億美元，讓後者投入有助於提高GDP的基礎設施項目。許多項目毫無必要，而它們人爲創造的需求使鋼鐵等產業更加臃腫，導致這些產業生產過剩。
With China’s central planners now having ordered lower growth, some classes of steel became cheaper by weight than cabbages last year. Wangjing, a gleaming new office district in Beijing, is half empty.
現在中國的中央政策制定者已調低增長目標，去年某些品級的鋼材按重量計算比白菜還要便宜。望京是北京一個光鮮的新建辦公區，現在卻有一半閒置着。
The Shanghai Composite index — which owing to China’s strong currency controls is mostly traded on by domestic investors — has lurched 12 per cent lower over the past three months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which offers shares of many of the same companies that can be purchased in freely exchangeable Hong Kong dollars, has fallen 13 per cent.
上證綜指(Shanghai Composite index)三個月來震盪下跌12%；中國嚴格的外匯管制意味着，活躍在境內股市的主要是國內投資者。香港恆生指數(Hang Seng index)下跌13%，在上海上市的很多股票也在這裏掛牌上市，能用可自由兌換的港元買賣。
But in the longer term, China’s consumer economy is a source of investor optimism. According to Fidelity, 33 out of 100 rural households do not currently own a washing machine or fridge. China’s vast scale makes the numbers even more compelling. For example, McKinsey calculates that China’s online gaming sector — which it valued at $18bn last year — is now bigger than Turkey’s passenger vehicle market.
但從長遠來看，中國的消費經濟是投資者樂觀情緒的來源。根據富達的數據，目前每百戶中國農村家庭還有33戶沒有洗衣機或電冰箱。而中國的龐大規模使此類數字更讓人動心。比如，據麥肯錫估計，中國的網絡遊戲產業去年估值爲180億美元，已超過土耳其的乘用車市場。
The consumer sector is what Mr Nicholls’ Fidelity fund focuses on, and analysts back his ability to pick the right stocks in a slowing economic environment. But because the fund buys riskier, small companies, many remain lukewarm about its growth prospects.
中國的消費領域正是尼科爾斯執掌的富達基金所專注的，分析師們也對他的能力給予肯定，相信他能夠在一個不斷放緩的經濟環境挑選出正確的股票。但由於該基金購買的是風險較高的小公司的股票，許多人仍對其增長前景持冷淡態度。
Numis Securities analyst Ewan Lovett-Turner calls Fidelity’s fund “one for the contrarian”. Brewin Dolphin’s Mr Paul has a neutral rating, meanwhile, calling it “too aggressive” for most of his clients.
Numis Securities分析師伊萬洛維特-特納(Ewan Lovett-Turner)稱，富達的這支基金是“適合逆向投資者的基金”。Brewin Dolphin的保羅則給予該基金中性投資評級，但同時稱，該基金對於他的大部分客戶來說“太過激進”。
The other listed option for UK investors is the JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust, which focuses more the large, blue-chip companies that dominate China’s economy. It is trading at an 18 per cent discount to net asset value.
英國投資者的另一個上市基金選項是摩根大通中國投資信託基金(JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust)，該基金更關注主導中國經濟的大型藍籌公司。該基金的股價較資產淨值有18%的折讓。
This fund is also highly geared, at around 116 per cent, which its client director James Glover said is because there are multiple “opportunities” from the “pullback” in equity markets.
該基金的槓桿率也很高，約爲116%。其客戶總監詹姆斯格洛弗(James Glover)表示，高槓杆率是因爲股市的“回調”包含很多“機會”。
Investors managing their own money would be wise to navigate China’s great wall of risks with caution.
對那些自己理財的投資者來說，謹慎對待中國的“風險長城”將是明智之舉。
China’s alphabet soup
中國股市簡介
Volatility on the Shanghai stock market grabs many headlines, but is not a bourse that foreign institutions are even allowed to put a lot of money into.
上海股市的震盪多次登上報紙頭條，但境外機構根本不被允許在該交易所投入大量資金。
Because of Beijing’s strict currency controls, foreign investors mostly buy stocks in Hong Kong, which are broadly labelled as H shares. Shares of the same Chinese companies, for example the country’s largest bank ICBC and China Telecom, trade as an H share in Hong Kong and an A share in the Shanghai market, which is dominated by local investors.
北京方面嚴格的外匯管制意味着，大多數境外投資者在香港買入中國內地股票，這些股票被寬泛地稱爲H股。同一家中國公司的股票，比如中國最大銀行中國工商銀行(ICBC)和中國電信(China Telecom)，在香港作爲H股交易，在由本土投資者主導的上海股市則作爲A股交易。
The A share market has been the most volatile, with sharp swings in sentiment driving the Shanghai Composite down by ten per cent in the week to July 31 and up 9 per cent in the week to June 5. It is still 21 per cent ahead so far this year.
A股市場是近期震盪幅度最大的市場，投資者情緒的劇烈波動使上證綜指在截至6月5日的那一週上漲9%，在截至7月31日的那一週下跌10%。上證綜指今年迄今依然上漲了21%。
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, meanwhile, is up a more sedate 4 per cent this year, even though two out of its three biggest components by weighting — China Mobile and internet giant Tencent — are also companies that trade in Shanghai.
與此同時，香港恆生指數今年僅平緩上漲4%，儘管其三大成分股中的兩家——中國移動(China Mobile)和互聯網巨擘騰訊(Tencent)——也同時在上海掛牌上市。
But the same companies’ stocks are valued completely different on the A and H share markets. ICBC’s stock trades at 98 per cent of its book value in Hong Kong, and 110 per cent in Shanghai. Overall, shares in Shanghai are trading at a 35 per cent premium to their Hong Kong counterparts, according to Bloomberg data.
不過同一家公司的股票在A股和H股市場上股價相差較大。工行股票在香港的股價爲賬面價值的98%，而在上海則爲110%。根據彭博(Bloomberg)的數據，整體上，A股相對於H股有35%的溢價。
James Glover, client director of listed investment trust JPMorgan Chinese, said that his fund’s wide discount to NAV has been driven by the headline-grabbing ructions in Shanghai. Like most foreign-managed China funds, however, this trust has scant exposure to A shares. “Our weighting to A shares last quarter was 4 per cent,” he said.
摩根大通的詹姆斯格洛弗表示，其中國投資信託基金股價相對於資產淨值的大幅折讓是上海股市引人注目的震盪所致。然而，就像大多數境外管理的中國基金一樣，該基金對A股的敞口很小。“上個季度我們對A股的投資比重爲4%，”格洛弗說。
