歐洲央行決定維持低利率不變

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, a decision overshadowed by speculation about what other options might be available to revive the eurozone economy.

法蘭克福——歐洲央行週四決定不調整其基準利率，人們對還有哪些其他選擇能重振歐元區經濟的猜測讓這一決定顯得遜色。

The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.05 percent was a formality because the rate is already effectively as low as it can go. An increase would be out of the question when eurozone growth is slowing.

把基準利率維持在0.05％的決定只是例行公事，因爲基準利率實際上已經不能再低了。在歐元區經濟增長仍在放緩的情況下，絕不可能提升利率。

Instead, analysts and investors were attentive on Thursday to any clues about whether the central bank is moving toward more powerful but more contentious methods of stimulating the eurozone economy, such as large-scale purchases of government bonds.

分析師和投資者週四反而更關心是否有任何跡象表明，央行正在朝着採用更有力、但也更具爭議性的方法來刺激歐元區經濟，比如大規模採購政府債券。

At a news briefing, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said that the bank's Governing Council had been unanimous “in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate.” He said that the council had charged the central bank staff and “the relevant Eurosystem committees with ensuring the timely preparation of further measures to be implemented, if needed.”

在新聞發佈會上，歐洲央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)說，央行的管理委員會對“採用職權範圍內的其他非常規手段的承諾”意見一致。他說，委員會已授權央行工作人員以及“有關的歐元系統委員會，如果有必要的話，確保及時準備實施進一步的措施”。

Since it last met a month ago, the central bank has begun buying private sector assets known as covered bonds, bundles of bank loans packaged for sale to investors and guaranteed by issuing banks. As of Oct. 31, the central bank had spent 4.8 billion euros, or about $6 billion, buying covered bonds. It plans to make more purchases in the coming months.

自從一個月前的上次會議以來，歐洲央行已經開始購買被稱爲擔保債券的私營行業資產，也就是由發行債券的銀行擔保的、打包出售給投資者的銀行貸款。截至10月31日，央行已經花了48億歐元（約合367億元人民幣）購買擔保債券，並計劃在未來幾個月中購買更多。

Because the supply of private sector assets that meet the central bank’s quality standards is limited, many analysts expect it to eventually resort to purchases of government bonds, emulating the quantitative easing used by the Federal Reserve in the United States. The European Central Bank is widely seen as having acted timidly compared with the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England.

由於符合央行質量標準的私營行業資產的供給有限，許多分析師預計央行最終會模仿美國聯邦儲備使用的量化寬鬆政策，採取購買政府債券的做法。人們普遍認爲，與美聯儲和英國央行相比，歐洲央行的做法不夠大膽。

“We need to see more coming out of the E.C.B.,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in Frankfurt on Wednesday.

“我們需要看到歐洲央行拿出更多的措施，”穆迪信用研究(Moody's Analytics)的首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪(Mark Zandi)週三在法蘭克福表示。

But full-scale quantitative easing would inevitably provoke an outcry in Germany, and most analysts do not expect the central bank to begin buying government bonds until next year, if ever.

但是，全面的量化寬鬆政策將不可避免地引起德國的強烈抗議，大多數分析師預計央行不會在明年以前開始購買政府債券，如果它打算這樣做的話。

In Germany, there is widespread fear that central bank bond buying would amount to a transfer of wealth from better-off countries to poorer ones. Many Germans believe they would have to pick up the tab if some countries defaulted on bonds owned by the bank.

在德國，人們普遍擔心央行購買債券的做法將會導致把較富裕國家的財富轉移給較貧窮的國家。許多德國人認爲，如果一些國家無力償還銀行的債券，他們將不得不替這些國家付賬。

Joining the advocates for a more aggressive approach by the central bank was Ángel Gurría, the secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

加入到提倡央行應採取更積極行動的人中的是經濟合作與發展組織祕書長安赫爾·古里亞(Ángel Gurría)。

“There is an increasing risk of stagnation in the euro area,” Mr. Gurría said Thursday morning at a news conference in Paris. “Countries must employ all monetary, fiscal and structural reform policies at their disposal to address these risks and support growth.”

“歐元區的停滯風險越來越大，”古里亞週四上午在巴黎舉行的新聞發佈會上說。“各個國家必須採取他們可採用的所有的貨幣、財政和結構改革政策，以應對這些風險，支持經濟增長。”

But because of the political risk, Mr. Zandi of Moody’s said it was more likely that the central bank would buy corporate bonds, debt issued by businesses, which would be less contentious.

但是，穆迪的贊迪說，出於政治風險的考慮，央行更可能會購買企業債券，也就是由企業發行的債券，這樣做的爭議會比較小。

Recent economic data has added pressure on the central bank to act. The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone was 0.4 percent in October, up from 0.3 percent in September but still dangerously low in the eyes of many economists. In addition, eurozone unemployment remains at 11.5 percent.

最近公佈的經濟數據給央行採取行動增加了壓力。歐元區十月份的通貨膨脹率是0.4％，高於九月份的0.3％，但在許多經濟學家眼裏仍低得非常危險。此外，歐元區的失業率保持在11.5％。

While the eurozone is not officially in deflation, a destructive downward price spiral, even the current low level of inflation can cause consumers to delay making purchases, companies to lose revenue and unemployment to soar from its already high levels.

雖然歐元區還未正式出現價格破壞性螺旋下滑的通貨緊縮情況，但目前的低通貨膨脹率足以導致消費者推遲購買，讓企業失去營收，及讓失業率從已經很高的水平再度上升。