奧朗德滿載希望開啓訪華之旅

French President Francois Hollande starts a two-day visit to China on Thursday, hoping that the trappings of a state visit to the world's second strongest economic power will curb the growing criticism of his government at home.

Hollande's visit is the first by a leader of a major Western power since the new Chinese leadership led by President Xi Jinping assumed office. It is also the first visit since the Cypriot banking bailout, and Chinese leaders will seek reassurances from Hollande that the European Union finally has the eurozone crisis under control.

Interestingly, the French central bank is reportedly ready to explore the possibility of using the renminbi in bilateral trade deals. This could be a ploy to increase the chances of Paris playing a role as an offshore center for the Chinese currency. It will face tough competition, however, from London and Hong Kong.

Given the economic problems facing France, Hollande will seek to push French exports, including Airbus, and welcome inward investment from China. Apart from seeking to expand financial and commercial ties, Hollande and his Chinese interlocutors will also discuss the developments on the Korean Peninsula, as well as the Syrian and Iranian issues. Hollande is likely to push Xi to influence the erratic behaviour of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Besides, France believes that a nuclear DPRK is not in China's best interest.

Although Hollande and Xi will discuss bilateral and international issues, it will be no surprise if they have a private conversation on how to deal with corruption, which was identified by Xi as one of the biggest challenges facing China in his acceptance speech after being nominated president.

Hollande defeated former president Nicolas Sarkozy in last year's election partly on the promise that he would reject austerity and lead France back to economic growth and partly because he promised that his government, unlike that of his predecessor, would be scandal free.

Now Hollande is being forced to admit that there is no magic wand to reinvigorate the ailing French economy. He is facing difficult decisions on how to reduce public expenditure.

Worse, his government is being mired in its own corruption scandal.

In his first year in office, unemployment in France has risen to 3.2 million, the highest level in 15 years. Debt has climbed above 90 percent of GDP and the promise to reduce the deficit this year to 3 percent of output has been shelved. With little or no growth there is no alternative but to cut public spending. According to its own assessment, France needs to cut 60 billion euros ($78.27 billion) in spending by 2017.

Hollande's dramatic drop in opinion polls is partly because of his failure to bring about economic growth and partly because of ministerial scandals. Recently, one of his closest ministerial confidants, Jerome Cahuzac, admitted that he had hidden 600,000 euros in a Swiss bank account, after having repeatedly denied it. He was forced to resign and is now being investigated for tax fraud.

Now the president has decreed that ministers should reveal details of their personal wealth in an effort to regain public trust. Each of France's 37 ministers is required to publish details of their personal finances. The list of assets includes details of bank accounts, life assurance policies, property and other expensive items such as cars, art works and antiques.

In an effort to raise money, Hollande promised to tax the rich. But many have fled to neighbouring Belgium or, in the case of film star Gerard Depardieu, to Russia. These proposals are now in abeyance.

The question of corruption and transparency in government is part of the G20 agenda, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, has urged his ministers to reveal details of their private wealth.

Chinese leaders have made clear their concerns over the growing rich-poor gap and the dangers of untrammelled corruption. Social media are already playing their part in highlighting the expensive lifestyle of some officials. Perhaps China will also consider cracking down on tax evasion.

Neither French nor Chinese like paying taxes but public services must be financed from some source. How to deal with corruption and prevent tax evasion could well be the most interesting part of the Hollande-Xi talks.

The author is director of the EU-Asia Centre.4月25日，法國總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德開始了爲期兩天的訪中之旅。中國是世界第二大經濟體，奧朗德希望此次國事訪問能減少法國國內對法國政府越來越多的批評聲。

奧朗德是中國國家主席習近平上任後第一位訪華的西方大國領導，同時這也是他在塞浦路斯銀行救助案達成後的首次出訪。中國領導人將從奧朗德處尋得確認：歐盟終於控制住了歐元區危機。

有趣的是，據報道，法國央行準備探索在雙邊貿易中使用人民幣的可能性。這可能是巴黎爲增加其成爲人民幣離岸中心可能性的一種策略。但是，倫敦、香港珠玉在前，巴黎將面臨殘酷的競爭。

鑑於法國目前面臨的經濟問題，奧朗德將大力推動法國出口，其中包括空中客車公司，並歡迎中國對法投資。除了力圖擴大法中兩國的金融和商務關係外，奧朗德和中國官員也將討論朝鮮半島問題以及敘利亞問題和伊朗問題。奧朗德有可能要求習近平對朝鮮的行爲施加影響。此外，法國認爲朝鮮開發核武器並不符合中國的最大利益。

奧朗德和習近平將討論雙邊及國際問題，也可能就如何處置腐敗進行私下談話。習近平在獲得主席提名後的演講中指出腐敗是中國面臨的最大挑戰之一。

在去年的總統大選中，奧朗德擊敗了前任總統薩科奇。一部分是因爲他承諾將擯棄緊縮的經濟政策，並帶領法國實現經濟增長。還有一部分是因爲他承諾將不同於前任政府，將遠離醜聞。

現在，奧朗德不得不承認，世界上沒有復興法國衰落經濟的魔法棒。他正面臨着如何減少公共開支的艱難決定。

更糟的是，他的政府正因腐敗醜聞泥足深陷。

奧朗德上任第一年時，法國的失業人數上升至320萬人，達15年來最高水平。舉債超過了GDP的90%，而今年將赤字佔GDP的比例降至3%的承諾也已擱置。因爲幾乎無法實現經濟增長，政府除了削減政府開支外毫無他法。據法國估計，到2017年時，法國需要削減開支600億歐元。

奧朗德在民意調查中支持率大幅下跌，一部分是因爲他恢復經濟的失敗，一部分是因爲內閣醜聞。近日，他最爲親近的內閣心腹之一，傑羅姆•卡於薩克在反覆否認後終於承認在瑞士銀行賬戶中私藏60萬歐元。他被迫辭職，現正因騙稅接受調查。

現在，奧朗德已頒佈法令要求內閣部長公開個人財產的詳細資料，試圖重拾公共信任。37位部長，無一例外。資產列表包括銀行賬戶、人壽保險單、房產及其他貴重物品（如車、工藝品、古董）的詳細資料。

爲了募集資金，奧朗德承諾向富人收稅。但許多富人已逃去了鄰國比利時，或者像電影明星傑拉爾•德帕迪約一樣逃去了俄羅斯。這些提案現懸而未決。

反腐及擴大政府透明度已被G20會議提上議程，俄羅斯總統普京也敦促其內閣公開個人財產細節。

中國領導階層已清楚表明其對貧富差距不斷擴大的擔憂，以及放縱腐敗的危險。社交媒體已在曝光某些官員奢侈生活方式的問題上盡到了職責。也許中國還將考慮打擊偷稅漏稅的行爲。

法國人與中國人都不喜納稅，但是公共服務必須由此籌資。如何應對腐敗及阻止偷稅漏稅可能是奧朗德與習近平對話中最引人關注的部分。

本文作者系亞洲歐盟中心負責人弗拉澤•卡梅倫。

英文原文發表在4月25日的《中國日報》。