“24個紐約市”被燒……這場山火到底該咋滅？美媒：要根治還得喊上中國

美國加州的一場大火，蔓延了近一個月。

截至目前，已造成至少36人喪生，數萬人逃離家鄉，燒燬了超過460萬英畝的土地，相當於24個紐約市……

有人甚至在情急之下跳入冰冷的湖水中，等了將近10個小時才得救……

然而，特朗普政府卻對問題視而不見：

天氣很快就會涼快的，你就等着瞧吧。

It'll start getting cooler. You just watch.

應對自然災害，美國就只能坐以待斃，指望老天？

好像不只這一條路可以走！

《外交》雜誌（Foreign Affairs）在近日發表的文章中，爲美國指了另一條路——喊上中國！

《外交》雜誌報道題圖

這篇題爲《從氣候層面反對“脫鉤”——中美關係惡化將使環境保護難上加難》的文章開篇就點明，應對氣候變化，中國的參與不可或缺。

文章明確表示，繼續與中國互通才是解決氣候危機的唯一明確途徑。而與中國“脫鉤”，無異於殺雞取卵、竭澤而漁。

Continuing to engage with China represents the only clear path to addressing the climate crisis. Decoupling, in contrast, would mean pursuing a small victory in the short term and courting disaster in the long term.

文章稱，應對氣候變化最有希望的方式，就是成立一個由主要經濟體組成的“氣候俱樂部”。

But the most promising way to tackle climate change—the formation of a "climate club" of major economies…

如果與中國“脫鉤”，美國及其合作伙伴幾乎不可能建立強有力的激勵機制吸引中國加入氣候俱樂部，從而徹底失去預防最惡劣環境破壞問題的希望。

Decoupling would make it almost impossible for the United States and its partners to create strong incentives for China to participate in a climate club and would thus scotch the best hope for preventing the worst-case scenarios of environmental devastation.

氣候變化困擾美國

近幾十年來，氣候變化對美國造成的影響不容小覷。

僅僅氣候變化一項，在未來30年，就將給美國帶來巨大的直接傷害，包括人員及財產損失等。

…even if one considers only the direct damage that climate change will likely inflict on the United States in just the next 30 years, the cost in terms of lost lives and property will be massive.

憂思科學家聯盟（Union of Concerned Scientists）2018年的一份報告顯示，未來30年內，美國超過30萬個沿海房屋將面臨週期性洪災的風險，這意味着平均每年至少發生26次洪災（或每兩週一次）。

During that time, according to a 2018 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, more than 300,000 coastal homes in the United States will be at risk of chronic flooding, meaning a flood event at least 26 times a year—or every two weeks, on average.

美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）最新發布的報告顯示，氣候變化已經影響到美國經濟的各個方面，包括基礎設施建設、農業、居民住房和商業房產，以及公衆健康和勞動生產力等。

The nearly 200-page report warned that climate change is already impacting or is anticipated to impact "nearly every facet of the economy", from infrastructure, agriculture, and residential and commercial property to people's health and labor productivity.

CFTC委員之一貝南姆（Rostin Behnam）稱：“美國正在不斷遭受極端天氣事件的打擊，從西部的大火到中西部的暴雨，再到墨西哥灣的颶風。”

"Extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation from the severe wildfires of the West to the devastating Midwest derecho and damaging Gulf Coast hurricanes," CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam said in a statement.

他還表示：“不斷升級的氣候事件對我們的金融系統造成直接衝擊，破壞經濟的持續增長。”

"…escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth."

美國國防部的多項研究表明，氣候變化也導致美國國家安全的威脅成倍增加。

From the standpoint of US national security, climate change also represents a threat multiplier, according to numerous studies by the US Department of Defense.

有效的氣候政策卻淪爲政治的犧牲品

儘管如此，美國似乎並未找到應對氣候問題的不二法門。

爲此，作者發出感慨：很不幸，有效的氣候政策已經淪爲美國政治困境的犧牲品。

Unfortunately, effective climate policy has fallen victim to a political dilemma in the United States.

這一政治困境指的正是美國政界人士和專家不斷討論的中美“脫鉤”問題。

過去幾年裏，美國政界人士和專家，不斷討論美國是否應該通過切斷中美之間的供應鏈、貿易關係和金融聯繫，讓全球最大的兩個經濟體“脫鉤”，使得世界經濟從一個整體分裂成兩個獨立的勢力範圍。

The past few years have seen a heated debate among US politicians and analysts about whether the United States should "decouple" from China by severing the supply chains, trade relationships, and financial links that bind together the world's two largest economies, transforming a one-world economy into two separate spheres of influence.

然而，忽略“脫鉤”的經濟代價是愚蠢的，更愚蠢的是忽視“脫鉤”將導致氣候變化問題更難得到解決。

…it would be foolish to dismiss the economic costs of decoupling — and even more foolish to ignore the ways in which decoupling would make climate change harder, if not impossible, to address.

首先，“脫鉤”代價極其昂貴。供應鏈將遭到破壞，美國公司在中國市場的銷售量將減少，此外，美國大學將失去數十萬中國學生。

First, decoupling would be enormously costly. It would disrupt supply chains, reduce the sales figures of US companies in the Chinese markets, and cost American universities hundreds of thousands of Chinese students.

其次，相互依存關係的削弱會增加其自身安全風險：大多數國際關係學者認爲，強有力的相互經濟聯繫即使不能完全消除國家間的衝突，也能減少國家間衝突的可能性。

Second, any reduction in interdependence would create security risks of its own: most scholars of international relations believe that strong, mutual economic links reduce the probability of conflict between states, even if they do not eliminate it completely.

美媒給出解決方案：

喊上中國纔是唯一途徑！

文章稱，美國應採取更爲明智的外交政策，與歐洲國家一起，建立一個由主要經濟體組成的國際氣候俱樂部。

The United States should take the first step by working with European countries to create an international climate club of major economies…

俱樂部將要求其成員執行有利於氣候的政策，並且對俱樂部以外的所有國家/地區採取關稅等邊界調整政策。

Membership would obligate countries to enforce certain pro-climate policies, and the club would apply border adjustments, such as tariffs, on all countries outside of the club.

然而，這一策略的成功取決於俱樂部內部的經濟規模。只有一個大型集團才能使“脫碳”成爲可能。這也意味着，任何成功的氣候俱樂部都必須包括中國。

This success of this strategy would depend on the size of the economies inside the club. Only a large group would make sufficient decarbonization possible — and that means that any successful climate club must include China.

所有這一切成立的前提是，美國不與中國經濟“脫鉤”。

This approach would work, however, only if the United States did not decouple its economy from that of China.

如果兩國放棄過去30年來如此緊密聯繫的貿易和投資，華盛頓將無法輕易說服北京加入氣候俱樂部。

If the two countries were to walk away from the trade and investment that have so thoroughly linked them for the past three decades, Washington would have no easy way to persuade Beijing to join the climate club…