世行對中國金融改革發出預警大綱
China’s services sector will account for more than half the country’s economic growth by 2017, according to the World Bank, which expects the country’s transition from an industrial powerhouse to a consumption-based economy to be “orderly”.
按照世界銀行(WB)的說法，到2017年以前，中國經濟半數以上的增長將來自服務業。該行預計，中國將通過“有序的”轉型過程，從工業發動機爲轉型爲消費型經濟。不過，該行警告說，中國金融體系市場化不夠，以及金融資產的巨大波動性，會爲這一轉型過程帶來挑戰。
In a report released on Wednesday, the bank said gross domestic product growth would continue to slow during the transition. Last year GDP grew 7.4 per cent, the slowest rate of expansion since 1990. The World Bank forecasts growth of 7.1 per cent this year and said growth was likely to slip to 6.9 per cent by 2017.
該行在週三發佈的一份報告中表示，在這一轉型過程中，中國的國內生產總值(GDP)增長速度會繼續放緩。去年，中國GDP同比增幅只有7.4%，是1990年以來的最慢增長速度。世行預計今年中國經濟增速將爲7.1%，並表示到2017年以前這一增長速度將滑落至6.9%。
It described this cooling as desirable and orderly, as Beijing looks to find a more sustainable footing after years of credit and shadow banking-fuelled growth.
該行稱，由於在經歷了多年由信貸和影子銀行推動的增長之後，中國政府試圖找到可持續性更強的發展立足點，上述降速過程不僅符合預期，也是有序開展的。
“Lower growth is consistent with a gradual shift in China’s growth model, from manufacturing to services, from investment to consumption, and from exports to domestic spending,” the report said.
該報告表示：“較低的增長速度，與中國逐步轉變增長模式的過程相符。通過這一轉型，中國會從製造業轉向服務業，從投資增長型轉向消費增長型，從出口增長型轉向國內開支增長型。”
Over the past decade the services sector has expanded from a 41 per cent share of the economy to 48.3 per cent last year. The sector is growing thanks to lighter business regulations, while industrial activity is playing a smaller role owing to an excess build-up in capacity and a deceleration in exports.
過去十年裏，中國服務業佔經濟的比重已從41%擴大到去年的48.3%。由於相關商業監管放寬，中國的服務業正在增長之中。與此同時，由於此前積累的過剩產能及出口減速，工業活動佔經濟的比重正在降低。
While growth decelerates, so will the rise in urban wages. But unemployment should remain low and steady, the bank said.
世行表示，在增長減速的同時，城鎮居民的薪酬增長也會減速，不過失業率將處於低位並保持穩定。
The report said more than 13m new urban jobs were created last year, exceeding a target of 10m. However, average disposable income growth in urban households slowed to a rate of 6.9 per cent last year, against rates of more than 8 per cent between 2010 and 2012.
該報告表示，去年中國新增城鎮就業崗位逾1300萬個，超過了1000萬的目標。不過，去年城鎮居民平均可支配收入增長速度放緩至6.9%。相比之下，在2010年到2012年期間，這一增長速度在8%以上。
This suggests the economic rebalancing is translating into adjustments in wages rather than in jobs, reflecting a dynamic labour market.
上述數字意味着，中國的經濟再平衡過程正在轉化爲薪資調整問題，而不是創造就業崗位的問題，這反映了勞動力市場的動態性。
“This transformation poses a crucial, long-term challenge to the Chinese urban labour market: how to create high-productivity urban jobs, mostly in services, and how to integrate a growing migrant population,” the report said.
該報告表示：“這種轉變爲中國城鎮就業市場帶來了重要的長期性挑戰：如何創造以服務業爲主的高生產率城鎮就業崗位，以及如何吸收日益增長的外來務工人口。”
On the monetary front, the bank points out that efforts to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates have been constrained. The People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates four times since November and taken other action to free up cash reserves at banks, yet real rates “remain historically high”.
在貨幣政策面，世行指出中國試圖借降息刺激需求的努力效果十分有限。自去年11月以來，中國央行(PBoC)曾四次降息，還曾採取其他措施釋放銀行的存款準備金。然而，中國的實際利率“依然處於歷史性高位”。
“The average nominal loan rate for borrowers stood at 6.78 per cent in the first quarter, down just 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, according to a PBoC survey.
報告表示：“根據中國央行開展的一項調查，今年第一季度平均名義貸款利率爲6.78%，比此前一季度只低了0.15個百分點。”
Nor is the government having much success directing credit to priority areas.
此外，在將信貸資金導向優先發展的領域方面，中國政府也未能取得很大成功。
“Although the government is urging banks to adjust their lending practices and to give more support to households, small and medium-sized enterprises, labour-intensive industries and first-time mortgage applicants, progress is gradual,” the report said.
該報告表示：“儘管中國政府正在敦促銀行調整放貸行爲，爲家庭企業、中小型企業、勞動力密集型企業和首次申請房貸的購房者提供更多支持，這方面的進展卻十分緩慢。”
China must take urgent steps to reform a “distorted” financial system in its transition to a more balanced economic model, the World Bank has warned in its latest review of the country’s economy.
此外，世行還在報告中警告說，中國必須採取緊急措施，改革其“扭曲的”金融體系，以完成經濟轉型。
“Financial reform will only prove effective if it removes the distorted incentives and poor governance structures that have affected how financial resources are mobilised and allocated,” the bank said in a report released on Wednesday. “A fundamentally reconfigured role of the state in the financial system is essential.”
該行表示：“只有在消除扭曲的激勵機制和糟糕的治理架構（這種架構會影響到金融資源的流動和分配過程）之後，金融改革纔會被證明是有效的。爲此，要從根本上改變政府在金融體系中所扮演的角色，這一點十分必要。”
The Chinese government retains effective control over almost 95 per cent of bank assets, compared with 74 per cent state control in India and about 40 per cent in Russia and Brazil, according to World Bank calculations.
根據世行的計算，中國政府有效控制着將近95%的銀行資產。相比之下，印度這一比例只有74%，而俄羅斯和巴西這一比例約爲40%。
As a result, state-owned enterprises have been able to secure a disproportionate share of available credit at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in the private sector.
受其影響，國有企業能夠得到的信貸與其規模很不相稱，這一不相稱的比例是以中小型企業尤其是民營企業爲代價獲得的。
Karlis Smits, a senior economist at the World Bank and lead author of the report, noted that a failure to move to a more market-based financial system would exacerbate such distortions.
世行資深經濟學家、該報告首席作者司克禮(Karlis Smits)指出，如果中國不能轉型爲更市場化的金融體系，這種扭曲狀況或將惡化。
He also warned of the potential dangers from a sharp correction in China’s rollercoaster stock markets.
此外，他還就中國股市過山車大幅調整的潛在危險提出警告。
“Asset price corrections are one of the risks to the growth outlook,” Mr Smits said. “That would undermine consumption if there’s significant volatility or a correction.”
司克禮表示：“資產價格調整是經濟增長前景的風險之一。如果出現大幅波動或調整，這可能會傷及消費。”
Ayhan Kose, who oversees the World Bank’s macroeconomic forecasts, said: “Equity ownership is rather small in China relative to most other countries. [But] the volume of margin trading is rather sizeable. In a disorderly correction, the volume of margin trading can create balance sheet challenges.”
負責世行宏觀經濟預測的艾漢•科澤 (Ayhan Kose)表示：“相對多數其他國家來說，中國的股權持有量很低。（然而，）中國保證金交易的規模卻相當大。在無序化調整過程中，保證金交易的規模會爲資產負債表帶來巨大挑戰。”
