全球轉基因種子生意爲什麼能穩賺不賠大綱

All those Facebook memes featuring Willy Wonka and The Most Interesting Man in the World warning that genetically modified crops will kill us all have done little to help the anti-GMO cause. Most recently, activists have been fighting to force food companies to affix warning labels to products that contain GMOs. Whether they win or lose won’t matter much, because Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company, is an unstoppable Leviathan, and GMOs are here to stay.
Facebook上所有主打威利o旺卡（電影《查理和巧克力工廠》裏好萊塢影星約翰尼o德普飾演的一個角色——譯註）和電影《世界上最有趣的人》、警告世人轉基因作物會害死大家的“迷因”（meme，一些風格獨特的圖像或影片，搭配上被社羣接受的標語或口號，在病毒式傳播下，產生許多變形和二次創作的產物——譯註）其實都對反轉基因運動幫助甚微。最近，不少激進分子努力要讓食品公司爲含有轉基因生物成分的產品貼上警示標籤。不過他們成功與否都關係不大，因爲全球最大的種子企業孟山都公司（Monsanto）是無人可擋的業界巨頭，而正是這家公司一直在致力於推廣轉基因作物。

The beside-the-pointness of the labeling movement is made starkly plain by a glance at Monsanto’s financials. The company on Wednesday reported a drop in earnings of nearly 6% in the third quarter, but its stock soared by more than 5%. The company also announced it will buy back $10 billion worth of shares over the next two years, and, more to the point, declared that it expects to at least double its profits by 2019, thanks almost entirely to its seeds and genomics businesses.
看看孟山都的業績表現就會發現，這場貼標籤運動其實是多麼不值一提。這家公司上週三報告稱，它第三財季營收下降了近6%，但股價卻飆升超過了5%。它還宣佈，今後兩年將回購100億美元的股票。這家公司尤其表示，主要受益於旗下種業和轉基因業務，它的盈利到2019年將至少增加一倍。

None of this is particularly surprising, except perhaps to some of the meme-spreaders. And it’s all happening despite more-serious resistance to GMOs across big swaths of the globe.
這些情況其實不足爲奇，可能只會讓一些“迷因”傳播者大跌眼鏡。而這個業績實際上是在全球大範圍反對轉基因作物的背景下取得的。

Monsanto MON -0.43% makes money almost no matter what. If its corn business sinks, as it has this year, it makes up for some of the losses by selling more soybean seeds (many farmers tend to switch between the crops depending on market conditions). If rivals gain market share, it often makes money from the technology licenses it sells to, for example, DuPont DD -0.18% , its chief competitor (and, as a licensee, one of its biggest customers). When its patents expire, it sells farmers on the newer seed varieties it is constantly pushing through its pipeline. The company is hedged to the hilt: seemingly, any loss is also a potential gain.
不管市場風雲如何變幻，孟山都總能賺錢。如果玉米業務像今年一樣有所縮減，它就會通過擴大大豆種子（大多數農戶都會根據市場情況在這兩種作物中挑一種）的銷量來彌補這一損失。如果對手的市場份額增加，它就會常常通過把技術許可賣給杜邦公司（DuPont）這樣的主要對手（作爲技術受讓方，也是它最大客戶之一）來賺錢。如果它的專利到期了，它又會把它一直在渠道中力推的新種子賣給農戶。這家公司能最大限度地對衝風險：任何損失似乎都能帶來收益。

That’s especially true when it comes to anti-GMO sentiment and hard-to-crack international markets. Europe is blocking sales of seeds and traits? Open markets in a more-receptive South America, where growth prospects are much bigger anyway. China is closing off its markets out of feigned concern about GMOs? Pour more resources into India.
涉及反轉基因作物運動和難以打開的國際市場這兩個問題時，尤能看出它的這種本事。歐洲禁止銷售種子？那就打開接受度更高的南美市場，反正那兒的增長前景要大得多。中國假裝擔心轉基因作物有害而封鎖市場？那就把更多資源轉向印度好了。

In the United States, the anti-GMO movement is almost laughably impotent, despite the headlines it manages to regularly snag. GMOs are overwhelmingly dominant here among the major crops, representing more than 90% of corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar beets, and canola. And Monsanto holds huge shares of those markets — about 80% of U.S. corn and more than 90% of U.S. soybeans are grown with seeds containing Monsanto’s patented seed traits (whether sold by Monsanto itself or by licensees). In all, the company holds about 1,700 patents. In 2013, Monsanto racked up sales of $14.9 billion. Of that, $10.3 billion came from seeds and genomic traits.
儘管不時有頭條新聞跳出來作梗，但反對轉基因作物的運動實際上在美國簡直弱小得可笑。美國的主要農作物中轉基因作物佔了絕對大頭，90%以上的玉米、大豆、棉花、甜菜和油菜都是轉基因的。在這些市場中孟山都佔有極大份額——約80%的美國玉米和90%以上的美國大豆都是用含有孟山都專利的種子（無論是孟山都自己、還是通過它授權經銷商銷售）種植的。孟山都總共擁有約1700項專利。2013年，這家公司的銷售總額高達149億美元，其中103億美元來自種子和轉基因作物。GMO crops took up about 1.7 million hectares soon after they were introduced in 1996. Acreage has grown at an average clip of 10 million hectares a year, according to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, and are now up to 175 million hectares, with no signs of abating. And Monsanto is either leading most of these markets, or is in close competition for them.
轉基因作物是1996年面世的，此後種植面積很快就達到170萬公頃。據非營利組織國際農業生物技術應用服務組織（International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications）稱，轉基因作物的種植面積之後以平均每年1千萬公頃的速度增加，現在總面積已高達1億7500萬公頃，而且絲毫沒有縮減的跡象。在絕大多數這些市場上，孟山都要麼遙遙領先，要麼和其他對手勢均力敵。

The upward trajectory isn’t just luck, and it isn’t just a friendly political climate in the United States (though that has surely helped). For such a big company, Monsanto is nimble, and able to turn on a dime when necessary. For instance, when profits sank during the last recession, the company quickly disinvested in its Roundup herbicide line, which was being quickly replicated by cheaper, generic versions, and shifted more focus to its core seed business, which represents about 70% of the company’s sales. Profits have bounced back in a big way, with net margins at about 30%.
能長期取得這樣的增長絕不僅僅是靠運氣，也不是光靠美國友好的政治氛圍就夠了（儘管這一點確實幫助很大）。孟山都儘管規模龐大，卻很靈活，同時還能在必要的時候敏捷應變。比如，當最近碰上經濟衰退利潤下降時，這家公司很快減少了對農達（Roundup）除草劑的投資，迅速用更便宜的一般產品代替了它；同時，它將業務重心更多地放在覈心種子業務上，而這一業務約佔公司銷售的70%。這家公司的利潤隨之大幅反彈，淨利潤率高達30%。

Meanwhile, the company is looking far ahead with investments in farm-productivity products such as data analytics. It purchased Climate Corp. last October for $930 million for its to boost its analytics portfolio. Farmers representing about 40 million acres in the United States (about 20% of corn and soybean acreage) are now using the company’s analytic products, about double what the company had earlier forecast.
同時，孟山都還深謀遠慮，對數據分析技術這樣有助於提高農場生產效率的產品進行投資。去年10月，它斥資9.3億美元併購了Climate Corp.公司，讓自己的多種分析技術產品如虎添翼。目前，美國約4千萬英畝（佔玉米和大豆種植總面積約20%）的農戶使用這家公司的分析類產品，這個規模約爲它此前預計規模的兩倍。

For several years, Wall Street had been skittish about Monsanto’s prospects, in part because of the loud opposition to GMOs. No longer. Just over the past few quarters, analysts have been ratcheting up their target prices. Wells Fargo did so after the company’s first quarter results were announced. J.P. Morgan followed in April after another successful quarter. On Wednesday, Citigroup’s P.J. Juvekar called Monsanto “our favorite name in ag,” and set a price target of $125 — which was quickly surpassed in the day’s trading. (On Thursday, shares sank slightly, but were still trading just above $125.)
過去幾年來，華爾街一直對孟山都的前景有點不以爲然，部分原因是因爲市場反對轉基因作物的呼聲甚高。但近幾個財季，分析師卻開始逐步調高孟山都的股價。這家公司公佈第一財季的業績後，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）就這麼做了。今年四月，這家公司宣佈又成功收穫一個財季後，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）也隨之跟進。上週三，花旗集團（Citigroup）的P.J.祖維卡乾脆稱孟山都爲“我們在農業領域最鍾情的名字”，同時把它的目標股價設爲125美元——而當天交易價格很快就超越這個價位（上週四，孟山都的股價略有回調，但仍然高於每股125美元）。

Such sentiments are also found on the buy side. In May, Larry Robbins of the hedge fund Glenview Capital Management insisted during the Sohn Investment Conference that Monsanto’s shares — then trading at about $110 — were way undervalued. Though he complained about Monsanto “hoarding capital” with its $15.8 billion in “dry powder” (cash), he enthused about the company’s prospects. It enjoys “massive barriers to entry” and “perpetual local monopolies” thanks to farmers basically signing on with Monsanto for life. He noted that while “corn demand will double” over the next 15 or 20 years, “acres won’t,” necessitating far greater yields. “In the real world, we cannot solve world hunger on an organic basis,” Robbins said.
而在買方也同樣可以看出這樣高漲的情緒。就在五月，格倫維尤資本管理公司（Glenview Capital Management）的拉里o羅賓斯在佐恩投資會議（Sohn Investment Conference）上堅稱，孟山都的股價——當時約爲110美元——被嚴重低估了。儘管他對孟山都保持高達158億美元“乾粉”（現金）的“囤積資本”多有不滿，但仍非常看好這家公司的前景。這家公司擁有“極高的准入門檻”，同時由於農戶基本上都和它簽訂了終生協議，它還享有“永久性地區壟斷”。他還指出，儘管未來15到20年中“玉米需求將翻倍”，但“種植面積卻不會同步增加”，從而要求畝產量必須遠高於現在的水平。他說：“在現實世界中，我們不可能按有機方式解決世界的饑荒問題。”

Clearly, not everybody agrees with that assessment, but Wall Street sure seems to. And so do farmers.
顯然，並不是所有的人都認同這個判斷，但華爾街卻似乎很是贊同。農戶們也是如此。