專家猜測網絡安全產業泡沫正在形成
Cybersecurity has gotten big – real big. Crime involving computers and networks has cost the world economy more than $445 billion annually, according to a June 2014 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Increasingly, hackers have grown more sophisticated targeting major corporations from retailers Target TGT 0.74% andNeiman Marcus to financial juggernaut JP Morgan JPM 0.97% and technology leaders eBay EBAY 0.12% , Snapchat and Adobe ADBE -0.12% , and countless others.
網絡安全已經發展成了一個非常龐大的產業。據美國戰略與國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）2014年6月的一份報告顯示，全球每年花在防範計算機與網絡犯罪上的投入高達4450億美元。黑客技術的發展也日新月益，而且黑客們也越來越把目標瞄向一些全球知名企業，比如零售業的塔吉特（Target）和尼曼（Neiman）、金融巨頭摩根大通（JP Morgan）、科技巨擘eBay、Snapchat、Adobe，以及無數其他公司。The threats are indeed real and escalating for many corporations, but it’s worth asking if the fears are overplayed and if a cybersecurity bubble is brewing? For the past two years, consumer curiosity and fear,often unjustified, has fueled mainstream media coverage of cybersecurity breaches causing more fear and more coverage, resulting in hype. Many investors looking to speculate on the next big thing have been buying into the industry with little regard for sound financial metrics such as the industry’s total addressable market, its reasonable growth rate, and each vendor’s slice of the overall pie.
網絡安全威脅對很多企業來說無疑是真實存在的，而且風險還在逐年上升。但是我們有必要問一句，人們對網絡安全的擔心是否有些過頭了？眼下是否確實有一個網絡安全泡沫正在發酵？過去兩年裏，經常有一些未經證實的案例吸引了消費者的好奇和恐慌，同時也導致主流媒體加大了對網絡安全泄密事件的報道力度，從而引起了更多人的恐慌。隨之而來的是更多的報道，將網絡安全的威脅渲染到了無以復加的地步。很多希望通過發現“下一個大事件”而發一筆橫財的投資人還沒有慎重考察這個行業的基本財務指標（比如行業的總體目標市場、合理增長率和每個廠商能分得的市場份額等），就匆忙跳進了這個行業。Investors have been too enthusiastic, and as a result, the shares of cybersecurity companies are overpriced. Overinvestment has been rampant in both the public and private markets. In the public market, thecorrection is already underway. FireEye FEYE -0.81% , the current poster-child of public cybersecurity pure plays is currently valued at $5.2 billion, down from $13 billion in March, with only $207 million in annual revenues. Imperva IMPV 1.41% is now worth $573 million, down from $1.7 billion in March, with $141 million in annual sales. Both companies have yet to turn a profit.
由於投資人表現得過於熱情，網絡安全公司的股價往往被高估。在公開和私募市場上，對網絡安全公司過度投資的現象都可以用氾濫一詞來形容。公開市場上現在已經出現了糾正的跡象。比如FireEye公司就是網絡安全行業上市公司中的典型代表，雖然它的年收益只有2.07億美元，但今年3月它的估值一度高達130億美元，但目前已經回落到52億美元。
In the private market, venture capital firms invested a record of $1.4 billion in 239 cybersecurity companies in 2013, according to CB Insights. The median deal size and average pre-money valuation for these transactions increased significantly. When investors buy assets priced much higher than intrinsic values and are overly optimistic about financial metrics influenced by hype, one can suspect that one is witnessing an asset bubble.
據美國市調公司CB Insights披露，在私募市場上，2013年各大風投公司向239家網絡安全公司投入了創記錄的14億美金的資本。這些交易的融資規模中值和交易前估值都呈現顯著上漲的勢頭。如果投資人以顯著高於公司內在價值的價格購買一筆資產，同時在宣傳的影響下對它們的財務標準過於樂觀，那麼可以想見，我們正在見證一個資產泡沫的形成。At YL Ventures, we experience this phenomenon even with seed-stage startups! The number of new cybersecurity companies looking for funding has dramatically increased since 2012; early-stage funding rounds got a lot bigger; pre-money valuations have increased dramatically; and investors that have no experience investing in the space are flocking into it. These observations are true for both the U.S. and theIsraeli markets to which we have exposure – both are hotbeds of cybersecurity innovation.
在我們YL Ventures公司，我們發現這種現象甚至出現在了種子階段的創業公司身上！自從2012年以來，新的網絡安全公司如雨後春筍般涌現，四處融資；同時，對這個領域毫無經驗的投資人也蜂擁而入。由於我們在美國和以色列市場都有敞口，因此我們在美國和以色列市場上都發現了這個現象，這兩個國家都是網絡安全創新的熱土。Is the disillusionment phase that seems to have begun in some public cybersecurity stocks indicative of a broader bubble burst? If so, will it be quick and dramatic, or gradual and tame? We don’t know, but we are prepared for a world in which cybersecurity companies may struggle to raise more financing, valuations may decrease and investors may become more defensive.
有些上市網絡安全公司股票的暴跌是否預示着大泡沫全面破裂的幻滅階段已經開始了？如果答案是肯定的，那麼泡沫崩盤的過程是如暴風驟雨一般，還是緩慢衰退？我們還不知道，不過我們已經做好了準備，應對衆多網絡安全公司可能難以獲得更多融資的局面。市場對網絡安全公司的估值可能會下跌，投資人也可能變得更加謹慎。
