耶倫:特朗普帶來經濟不確定性
The US economy and fiscal policy face an uncertain path under the Donald Trump administration, Janet Yellen warned on Tuesday as she declared “monetary policy is not on a preset course” but that it would be “unwise” to raise rates too slowly.
珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)週二警告稱，美國經濟和財政政策在唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府領導下面對着一條不確定的路徑，她宣告“貨幣政策沒有運行在預設軌道上”，而加息太慢將是“不明智的”。Testifying before Congress, the Federal Reserve chair painted a picture of an economy with accelerating growth, higher inflation and a robust labour market that has generated some 16m jobs since its post-crisis trough in early 2010.
美聯儲(Fed)主席在國會作證時描述了美國經濟的景象：經濟增長加速，通脹上揚，勞動力市場強勁，自2010年初金融危機過後的低谷以來已經創造了1600萬就業崗位。That improving picture, she said, justified the December move by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates for only the second time in the past decade and expectations that it would have to continue to increase its target rate gradually in the months to come.
耶倫說，這一不斷好轉的局面證明聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)去年12月份的加息舉措——過去十年的第二次加息——是正確的，而且預計未來幾個月需要繼續逐步提高目標利率。
“As I noted on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise,” she said.
耶倫說：“正如我在以前的場合所指出的，遲遲不撤銷寬鬆政策將是不明智的。”Responding to questions later she declined to say whether the next rate increase would come at the Fed’s policy meetings in March or June. “I can’t tell you which meeting it would be. I can tell you that each meeting is live,” she said, adding: “It’s our expectation that rate increases this year will be appropriate.”
在後來回答時，她拒絕說明下一次加息會發生在美聯儲3月還是6月的政策會議上。她說：“我不能告訴你是哪次會議。我可以告訴你的是每一次會議都有可能。我們預期今年的加息將是適當的。”The US dollar rose as traders focused on Ms Yellen’s remarks about a continued tightening of monetary policy. The greenback added 0.4 per cent against a basket of six major global currencies, reversing a loss of as much as 0.3 per cent earlier in the day.
耶倫關於持續收緊貨幣政策的言論引起交易員關注，美元隨之走高。美元對一籃子六種主要貨幣上漲0.4%，扭轉了當日早些時候一度高達0.3%的跌幅。But Ms Yellen also struck a note of caution about the new administration and expectations that its plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending would lead to looser fiscal policy and more rapid growth.
但是耶倫也對新政府以及減稅和基礎設施支出計劃會導致更寬鬆財政政策和更快速增長的預期表示警惕。“Considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook,” she said, pointing to “possible changes in US fiscal and other policies” as one of the main sources of that.
“經濟前景將面臨顯著的不確定性，”她說，並指向“美國的財政及其他政策可能出現的變化”爲不確定性的主要來源之一。Fed policymakers reiterated this month that they expected “the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate”, Ms Yellen pointed out.
耶倫指出，美聯儲政策制定者本月重申，他們預計“美國經濟的進展使得繼續逐步提升聯邦基金利率變得必要”。Future moves, she said, would depend on continuing progress in US employment and inflation, which at 1.6 per cent remains below the Fed’s 2 per cent target rate. But uncertainty over the shape and economic impact of Mr Trump and the Republican Congress’ fiscal plans was shadowing the Fed’s decisions, she indicated.
她說，未來的舉措將取決於美國在就業和通脹方面的持續進展，目前1.6%的通脹水平仍低於美聯儲2%的目標。但她表示，圍繞特朗普以及共和黨主導的國會的財政計劃的輪廓及經濟影響的不確定性，正在影響美聯儲的決定。
“The economic outlook is uncertain, and monetary policy is not on a preset course,” she told the Senate banking committee.
“經濟前景並不確定，而貨幣政策沒有運行在預設軌道上，”她對參議院銀行委員會表示。"We recognise that there may be significant economic policy changes and that those changes could affect the outlook," Ms Yellen said later in response to questions. But “we don’t want to base current policy on speculation about what may come down the line".
“我們意識到，可能會出臺重大經濟政策變化，而那些變化可能影響經濟前景，”耶倫後來在回答問題時說。但是“我們不想把當前政策建立在對未來的猜測之上”。
