尼日利亞爲何流傳還我腐敗之說

In Nigeria, there is a hashtag doing the rounds: #BringBack-Corruption. A tongue-in-cheek repudiation of the anti-corruption drive being spearheaded by President Muhammadu Buhari, the campaign nevertheless reflects real anger at rising hardship.

在尼日利亞，有一個正在迅速流傳的話題標籤：#還我腐敗#(#BringBack-Corruption)。這是對尼日利亞總統穆罕默杜•布哈里(Muhammadu Buhari)發起的反腐行動的戲謔的批評，儘管如此，這一批評的確反映出他們對尼日利亞日益加劇的困境的真切憤怒。

Never mind that the main culprit of Nigeria’s woes is the price of oil: at $40 a barrel, a big comedown for a mono-commodity state whose cronies, schemers and skimmers have grown accustomed to the $100-a-barrel lifestyle. Not a few Nigerians, even those too poor and too removed from power to leech off the petro-economy, are blaming Mr Buhari’s war on graft for their misfortune.

沒有人在意的是，造成尼日利亞困境的罪魁禍首其實是油價：現在的油價是每桶40美元，這讓這個依賴單一大宗商品的國家非常落魄（這個國家的當權者的親信、陰謀家和揩油者已經習慣了油價處於每桶100美元時的生活方式）。相當多的尼日利亞人，甚至是那些極度貧困、極度無權無勢以至於無法從石油經濟中撈油水的人，都指責布哈里的反腐鬥爭導致了他們的困境。

“With corruption a bag of pure water was N80. Without corruption a bag of pure water is N150 #BringBack-Corruption”, goes a typical refrain. Another highlights one company’s efforts to wring more profit from a shrivelling market. “Titus Sardine started with 4 fishes, it reduced to 3. Now it’s 2. In years to come, you’ll open Sardine and see ‘Try Again, No fish this time’ #BringBackCorruption.”

“有腐敗的時候一袋純淨水要80奈拉。沒有腐敗的時候一袋純淨水要150奈拉#還我腐敗#”，這是一條具有代表性的抱怨。另一條抱怨表明一家公司從萎縮的市場中擠出多一點利潤的嘗試。“Titus牌沙丁魚罐頭最開始一罐裏頭有4條魚，然後減少到了3條。現在有2條。未來幾年，你打開沙丁魚罐頭以後會看到‘再試一次，這次沒有魚’ #還我腐敗#”。

Mr Buhari has indeed made the pursuit of corruption, along with the fight against Boko Haram terrorists, his biggest priority, though the link with rising prices or diminishing fish portions is not entirely obvious. Despite there being little if any direct correlation, many say that a whole system once lubricated by under-the-table money has simply seized up.

布哈里的確將打擊腐敗和博科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)恐怖分子放在了首位——儘管這和物價上升或者魚肉份量減少之間的聯繫並不明顯。直接聯繫即使有的話，也很微弱，但許多人說，整個曾經靠檯面下資金的潤滑得以運轉的體制如今已經停止運作。

Mr Buhari, a retired general, ran the country in the early 1980s after seizing power the old-fashioned way — in a military coup. He also railed against the endemic corruption that made Nigeria notorious, even in Africa. Whatever traction he gained during two years of military rule was quickly lost. Levels of state theft reached vertiginous heights under subsequent leaders.

退役將軍布哈里曾在上世紀80年代初治理過這個國家，當時他是通過一種老派的方式——軍事政變上臺的。那一次他也曾怒斥尼日利亞猖獗的腐敗，該國的腐敗即便在非洲也是臭名昭著的。布哈里在那爲期兩年的軍事統治中取得的任何成果後來很快都消失了。在後來數任領導人的統治下，盜竊國家財產的猖獗程度達到令人髮指的水平。

Now, after his surprise win in last year’s election, Mr Buhari is having another go. Under his direction, state prosecutors have gone after several high-ranking members of the previous administration of Goodluck Jonathan, though the former president, who had the grace to quit office when electors booted him out, is assumed to be safe from prosecution.

去年意外在選舉中獲勝的布哈里正在進行又一次嘗試。在他的指令下，尼日利亞檢方已經起訴了前總統古德勒克•喬納森(Goodluck Jonathan)領導的上一屆政府中的多名高官，儘管喬納森本人應該會被免於起訴（他在被選民投下臺時爽快地讓出了位置）。

Results have been mixed. The trial of Sambo Dasuki, a former national security adviser, has run into trouble over alleged procedural irregularities, blamed by some on Mr Buhari’s military instincts and his impatience with the niceties of the law. Mr Dasuki is accused of helping to “divert” about $2.1bn meant to have been deployed in fighting Boko Haram.

結果好壞參半。對前國家安全顧問桑博•達蘇基(Sambo Dasuki)的審判因爲涉嫌程序失當而遇到了麻煩，一些人將其歸咎於布哈里的軍人本能和他對法律細節的不耐煩。達蘇基被指控幫助他人“挪用”本應用於打擊博科哈拉姆分子的約21億美元的撥款。

Recent attacks on power stations and oil and gas pipelines have been blamed on saboteurs angered by Mr Buhari’s crackdown on nefarious activities. As lights flicker off and private generators cough into action, some Nigerians have taken to muttering: “When you fight corruption, corruption fights back.”

最近針對發電廠和油氣管道的襲擊，被認爲是布哈里打擊犯罪活動激起的蓄意破壞。一盞盞燈忽閃着熄滅，私人發電機轟隆隆地運轉起來，一些尼日利亞人禁不住嘟囔：“你打擊腐敗，腐敗也在還擊。”

Champagne importers and car dealers, too, are complaining that officials are not spending like they used to. “There’s not enough money flowing around because everything was being financed by corruption,” says Mohammed Garuba, head of asset management at CardinalStone, a Lagos-based financial institution.

香檳進口商和汽車經銷商也抱怨官員們出手不如過去闊綽了。“流轉的資金不足，因爲一切都是靠腐敗來提供資金的，”位於拉各斯(Lagos)的金融機構CardinalStone的資產管理主管穆罕默德•加魯巴(Mohammed Garuba)說。

Mr Buhari’s drive is laudable. It is, however, unlikely to work. He is right to end the culture of impunity by going after big offenders. But unless he can tackle the underlying causes of corruption, the victims of his campaign will be seen as arbitrary and his victories fleeting.

布哈里的反腐行動值得讚譽，然而卻不太可能奏效。他爲了終結犯罪者不受懲處的氛圍去追究重大犯罪者的責任，這樣做是正確的。但除非他能夠解決腐敗的病根，否則人們就會認爲他的反腐行動是想針對誰就針對誰，他的勝利也將是曇花一現。

So what are the causes? Central are the opportunities presented to a parasitic coterie of middlemen, gatekeepers, rationers, arbitrageurs, licensers and fixers. They trade in scarcity, much of it of their own devising. They can get you anything, from business permits to oil blocks — if the price is right. In such a rentier system, the disincentives to actually make anything are huge. Mr Buhari has complained with only mild exaggeration that Nigeria cannot even produce toothpicks.

那麼病根有哪些呢？核心問題是，由中間人、看門人、配給者、套利者、許可發放者和代人疏通者組成的寄生階層有空子可鑽。他們把“稀缺性”當生意來做，這種稀缺性大部分又是他們自己設計出來的。他們能爲你搞到任何東西，從經營許可到石油區塊——只要你出合適的價錢。在這樣一個食利者體制中，做任何實業的障礙都是巨大的。布哈里曾經抱怨尼日利亞連牙籤都造不出來——這話並不算十分誇張。

To tackle the root cause of corruption, Nigeria needs to purge rent-seeking opportunities. Nowhere are these more evident than in the oil industry. Nigeria is the largest petroleum producer in Africa. Its output of 2m barrels a day is controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a many-tentacled entity which — and you can almost see the flashing red warning sign — both regulates and participates in the oil business. The NNPC dabbles in exploration, distribution and refining, though the latter mostly consists of exporting raw crude and importing refined products at scandalous prices.

要解決腐敗的病根，尼日利亞需要清除尋租的機會。這一點在石油行業再明顯不過。尼日利亞是非洲最大的石油生產國。該國200萬桶原油的日產量控制在尼日利亞國家石油公司(NNPC)的手中。該公司業務範圍很廣。它既是石油行業的監管者，也是石油行業的參與者（你幾乎都能看見紅色的警示燈在閃爍）。尼日利亞國家石油公司涉足開採、分銷和精煉，儘管所謂的“精煉”基本就是出口原油，然後以令人髮指的價格進口精煉石油產品。

The NNPC is a case study in how to sacrifice national interest to personal gain. The auditor-general recently found that it had failed to remit $16bn to the Treasury in 2014 alone. Amazingly, in oil-abundant Nigeria, most people have no electricity. One does not have to be a market fundamentalist to conclude that the NNPC needs shrinking to as small a size as possible, where zero is the optimal number.

尼日利亞國家石油公司堪稱如何犧牲國家利益中飽私囊的典型案例。尼總審計長最近發現，僅2014年一年，該公司沒有上交給財政部的資金就達到160億美元。驚人的是，在石油資源豐富的尼日利亞，大多人還用不上電。一個人不必是市場原教旨主義者就能得出結論，尼日利亞國家石油公司應該儘可能削減規模，最好是徹底消失。

Few doubt Mr Buhari’s sincerity in taking on corruption. Yet punishing individual wrongdoers will not be enough. Unless he can devise coherent strategies to squeeze graft from the system, it will return with a vengeance once he has gone. Then the advocates of #BringBackCorruption will have got their way. It will, though, be a cause for anything but celebration.

很少有人質疑布哈里打擊腐敗的誠意。然而，懲罰單個的違法分子是不夠的。除非他能夠設計出連貫的策略將腐敗從體制中徹底剷除，否則一旦他離開，腐敗就會以變本加厲之勢捲土重來。那時候支持#還我腐敗#的人就如願了。然而，這唯獨不值得慶祝。