尼日利亞經濟面臨脫軌危險

Nigeria’s journey from bankrupt, pariah state to Africa’s largest economy helped to fuel a surge in optimism about the continent over the past 15 years. Now there is a danger that its latest troubles will trigger a bout of despair. As one seasoned investor puts it: “Nigeria, with help from South Africa, is killing the African story.”

尼日利亞從一個破產的“賤民國家”轉變爲非洲最大的經濟體，這一轉變促使外界在過去15年對非洲大陸的樂觀情緒高漲。如今，尼日利亞的最新困境可能將引發一波失望情緒。正如一位經驗豐富的投資者所言：“尼日利亞，再加上南非，正在扼殺非洲增長故事。”

Part of that story was hyperbole — notably the broad-based nature of the continent’s revival. While there was a boom in services, investment flows and an expansion of the middle class, growth in many states was largely jobless, and underpinned by soaring world prices for commodity exports. This was especially true in Nigeria, which still depends on crude oil for more than 90 per cent of hard currency earnings and typically around two-thirds of state revenues.

那個故事的某些部分原本就有所誇大，尤其是認爲非洲會普遍復興的部分。儘管服務業繁榮、有投資流入、中產階層擴大，但許多國家的增長基本上沒有創造就業崗位，而且受到了大宗商品出口全球價格飆升的支撐。尼日利亞的情況尤其如此，該國逾90%的硬通貨收入以及通常約三分之二的政府收入仍依賴原油。

Since the fall in oil prices, the cracks in Nigeria’s economy have quickly reappeared. Starved of fuel, electricity and foreign exchange the economy is grinding to a halt. Businesses are laying off staff in droves.

自油價下跌以來，尼日利亞經濟很快再次瀕臨崩潰。由於缺乏燃料、電力和外匯，尼日利亞經濟逐漸陷入停滯。企業正在大量裁員。

In turn, confidence in President Muhammadu Buhari, elected a year ago on a wave of hope, is evaporating. There are no easy answers to the dilemmas his government faces. Many were in the making long before he won elections, promising to crush corruption, invest in infrastructure and create jobs.

相應地，對一年前經選舉上臺、被寄予厚望的尼日利亞總統穆罕默杜•布哈里(Muhammadu Buhari)，民衆的信心煙消雲散。布哈里政府面臨的兩難問題不會輕易解決。在布哈里憑藉打擊腐敗、投資於基礎設施並創造就業的承諾贏得選舉之前，許多問題早就在累積之中。

The challenge is exemplified by the fuel crisis — the worst in living memory. Because state-owned refineries have been mismanaged for so long, Nigeria relies on imports of fuel. This is one reason Mr Buhari is so reluctant to devalue the naira currency — fixed at an unrealistic level against the dollar, which does not fluctuate with Nigeria’s changing fortunes. The resulting distortions have eroded the commercial case for importing fuel and created a gaping spread between parallel and official exchange rates that encourages the very corruption Mr Buhari has vowed to stop.

這一挑戰因人們記憶中最糟糕的一場燃料危機而加劇。由於國有精煉廠長期以來一直管理不善，尼日利亞依賴燃料進口。這是布哈里極不願貶值奈拉的一個理由——奈拉兌美元匯率被固定在不切實際的水平，不隨尼日利亞的財富變化而波動。由此導致的扭曲讓進口燃料從商業上看不划算，導致平行匯率和官方匯率之間的差距越來越大，這種差距讓布哈里承諾要打擊的腐敗活動更爲猖獗。

Devaluation would be no panacea. It would hasten the depletion of foreign reserves and push up the pump price of petrol, unless government resumes paying subsidies it can ill-afford. The elimination of the subsidy might, on the other hand, trigger riots.

貶值不會是萬靈藥。它將加快外匯儲備的消耗，推升汽油零售價格，除非政府繼續支付其負擔不起的補貼。另一方面，取消補貼可能會引發騷亂。

It is a tough choice and an even tougher political environment to make it in. Nigerians are impatient for the gains they voted for and have little appetite for further pain. Mr Buhari squandered an opportunity to act early on when he enjoyed the goodwill of the public. But the painful measures required to set Nigeria’s economy on a sustainable growth path become no more palatable the longer he delays.

這是一個艱難的選擇，在一個更爲艱難的政治環境中更是如此。尼日利亞人急於獲得當初投票選擇的收益，不願承受進一步的痛苦。布哈里在還享有公衆善意的時候沒有及早採取行動。但繼續拖延下去，讓尼日利亞經濟走上可持續發展之路所需要的痛苦改革措施也不會變得更容易接受。

Without investment Nigeria will neither continue growing nor diversify from its crippling dependency on oil. Yet no investor will put money into an economy at one exchange rate, knowing that to take it out again might require losing a third of its dollar value.

如果沒有投資，尼日利亞不僅不會繼續增長，而且還無法通過多元化發展改變極度依賴石油的局面。然而，任何投資者都不會在明知收回資金時按美元價值計算會損失三分之一的情況下，將資金投入一個固定匯率的經濟體。

This week, China has offered help with a currency swap, and the promise of $6bn in infrastructure loans. The terms of these deals are not yet clear. But they could go some way towards plugging an $11bn budget deficit. The danger is that, together with the modest recent rise in oil prices, China’s help will encourage Mr Buhari to defer the tough decisions once again.

本週，中國施以援手，與尼日利亞簽署了貨幣互換協議，並承諾提供60億美元的基礎設施貸款。這些協議的具體條款尚未公佈。但它們可能在某種程度上填補110億美元的預算赤字。風險在於，中國的援助再加上最近油價小幅回升，將鼓勵布哈里再次推遲做出艱難決定。

The president wants to eliminate the wasteful patronage on which venal elites have thrived and create an economy more dynamic in creating jobs for the masses. These are laudable long-term aims for which his government has yet to articulate a convincing strategy. In the meantime, however, the short term is pressing. No economy can survive without fuel, electricity or foreign exchange.

布哈里想要消除滋生腐敗精英、浪費資源的任人唯親現象，想要創造一個更具活力的、讓民衆能夠就業的經濟。這些是值得稱讚的長期目標，但布哈里政府迄今沒有闡述一個可以實現這些目標的令人信服的戰略。然而，與此同時，當前形勢緊迫。如果沒有燃料、電力或外匯，任何經濟都不可能存活下去。