OPEC擔心油價將繼續下跌

Some of OPEC's Gulf members are concerned about the latest drop in oil prices which had not been expected, OPEC delegates said, but they see little chance of the exporting group diverting from its policy of defending market share.

一些歐佩克海灣國成員代表對最近預料之外的石油價格下跌十分憂慮，歐佩克代表稱，儘管如此，轉變政策以維護市場份額的希望仍然不大。

Brent oil is trading near $46 a barrel, close to its 2015 low after an 18 percent drop in July, pressured by abundant supplies and concern about the health of the Chinese economy, the world's second-largest oil consumer. Despite this, the delegates including from Gulf OPEC members who declined to be identified say China is still buying and stockpiling crude and they expect strong global demand growth should push prices back to $60 next year.

受原油供應充足和世界第二大石油消費商---中國經濟健康狀況的壓力，布倫特原油目前股價接近46美元每桶，繼7月下降18%後，達到2015年最低價。儘管如此，包括來自海灣的不願透露姓名的歐佩克與會成員表示，中國仍然在購買和儲存原油。他們希望全球對於原油需求的有利增長可以讓原油價格在明年回升到60美元每桶。

"There is a concern about the health of the Chinese economy, but as numbers have shown the need to import oil is increasing,"an OPEC delegate from a Gulf oil producer said.

“中國的經濟狀況讓人擔憂，但是數據顯示，對原油的進口需求在增長。”來自海灣石油生產國的以爲歐佩克代表說。

"Oil prices will remain volatile... but they will recover," the delegate said this month, adding that he does not expect OPEC to take any step now "due to unclarity" in the market.

“石油價格將持續波動，但是他們難以恢復，”以爲代表本月談到，並且補充表明他並不期望歐佩克現在採取任何行動，因爲市場的狀況並不明朗。

Prices have more than halved since June last year. OPEC's Gulf members, relatively wealthy, are better able to cope with low oil prices than the African members, Iran orVenezuela. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf members drove OPEC's strategy shift last year to allow prices to fall to discourage growth in competing supply sources. While non-Gulf members of the Organization of the Petrole Exporting Countries have frequently expressed concern since then about the drop in prices, Gulf members have rarely voiced such sentiments. But there is no indication they expect OPEC's policy to change.

自從去年六月起，原油價格已經下跌過半。相比起歐洲國家成員，那些相對比較富有的歐佩克海灣國代表最好能夠適應原油的低價。去年，以沙特阿拉伯爲首的海灣國成員驅使歐佩克實行戰略轉移，使得原油價格下降，以阻礙競爭原油供應商的增加。然而，非海灣石油輸出國組織成員自油價下跌以後，常常表達自己的擔憂，海灣成員國則很少表達這樣的情緒。但並沒有跡象表明，他們期望歐佩克的政策轉變。

"Of course everyone is concerned, but we hope by the fourth quarter the market will start recovering," a second OPEC source said, citing the end of seasonal refinery maintenance that will boost crude demand.

“當然，每個人都很憂慮，但是我們希望市場在第四季度會回暖，”歐佩克稱，傳訊季節性的撿廠維修會增加原油需求。

CHINA CONCERNS

對中國的憂慮

OPEC officials reconfirmed its market-share strategy at its last meeting in June. At the time, delegates were expecting a recovery in prices towards the end of 2015, supported by expected higher global demand.

在6月的最近一次會議中，歐佩克官員再次重申了它的市場份額戰略。當時，代表們都期望原油價格在2015年年底憑藉全球原油需求的增長回升。

But those sentiments have changed with the latest oil price drop and as concern grows about the demand outlook in China.

但是這種期待伴隨着最近石油價格下跌和中國原油需求展望的擔憂而改變。

"Prices are expected to stay under downward pressure until the expected enhancement in demand next year, then they can reach around $55-60 a barrel," a third OPEC delegate said.

”預計原油價格會一直處於下行壓力中，直到明年預期的需求增加，之後它們可以達到55-60美元每桶，”歐佩克第三代表稱。

OPEC currently expects an acceleration of growth in world oil demand next year to 1.34 million barrels per day, from 1.28 million bpd this year, as well as an increase in the demand for its own crude as non-OPEC supply expansion slows.

歐佩克期望明年全球石油需求量可以從128萬桶每天增加到134萬桶每天，同時隨着非歐佩克供應方擴張的變緩，對其自身的需求量會上漲。

Although China's crude demand has so far remained strong as authorities take advantage of cheap oil to build up strategic reserves and consumers kept spending despite the slowing economy, there are signs of weakening, with the devaluation of the yuan potentially denting fuel imports.

由於中國當局利用原油價格下跌進行石油戰略儲備，中國消費者也並未因爲經濟增長放慢而停止消費原油，所以中國的原油需求仍然強勁。但是伴隨着人民幣貶值，原油需求下降的跡象仍然可見。

OPEC delegates and industry sources say it is hard for Saudi Arabia to reverse the policy it championed, particularly at a time when both Iran and Iraq are gearing up to boost their crude exports.

歐佩克代表和業內人員稱，沙特阿拉伯很難維持其支持的政策，尤其當伊朗和伊拉克都在摩拳擦掌準備提高其原油出口時。

"The Gulf states are worried about the decline but there will be no change of direction unless Saudi was to lead it," an industry source and OPEC expert said. "At the moment, Saudi is still in charge and they will stick with it."

“海灣國家對於原油價格下降都很擔憂，但是出給沙特接管，這一切都不會改變，”一位業內人士和歐佩克專家稱，“此時，沙特仍然大權在握並且會堅持自己的政策。”

Adding to the uncertainty over the health of the Chinese economy is concern about rising global oil production in a market that OPEC's own forecasts indicate is already oversupplied by more than 2 million bpd.

加之中國經濟狀況的不確定性，歐佩克預測已經超額供應了200萬桶原油。

Saudi Arabia and Iraq, OPEC's top two producers, have been pumping this year at record highs, and others like Russia have kept production levels elevated.

歐佩克最大的兩個石油生產國---沙特阿拉伯和伊朗已經達到了歷年石油生產的高峯，其他國家比如俄羅斯，一直在提高石油產量。

OPEC does not meet until Dec. 4 and has rebuffed calls for an emergency meeting by Algeria. While OPEC rules say a simple majority of the 12 OPEC members is needed to call an emergency meeting, insiders say unless Saudi Arabia is among those in favour no meeting is likely.

直到12月4號，歐佩克不會舉行會議，阿爾及利亞關於呼籲召開緊急會議的要求已經被回絕。儘管依據歐佩克規定，緊急會議可以在12個成員中的大部分要求時召開，內部人士透露，除非沙特阿拉伯在要求者之列，否則會議不會召開。

"Emergency meetings need coordination and agreement or at least a proposal before the ministers go for it, and I don't see this happening," said the second OPEC source.

“緊急會議的召開需要協調和同意，至少在部長要求以前有一個提案，這些我都沒有見到。”