西方國家切勿用TPP制衡中國
Selling a free-trade agreement at home is hard work, given public scepticism about their effect on American jobs. So as supporters of the Trans-Pacific Partnership try to round up backers, they increasingly emphasise the geopolitical case for concluding a deal.
在美國國內兜售自由貿易協定是項艱難的工作，因爲公衆對這類協定對美國就業的影響持懷疑態度。因此，《跨太平洋夥伴關係》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）協定的擁躉們在努力贏取支持者時，日益強調達成協定帶來的地緣政治好處。
They are correct that a good trade and investment agreement would be geopolitically beneficial, and that a collapse in the talks would be deeply damaging. But too often they overstate the case — and, in doing so, generate real geopolitical risks of their own, while also jeopardising the agreement they seek.
這些人看法的正確之處在於，好的貿易與投資協定的確會帶來地緣政治上的好處，談判破裂的確會產生嚴重破壞。但他們往往誇大這個因素的重要性——而且，這種誇大其實也會催生切實的地緣政治風險，危及他們想要達成的協定。The geopolitical case for TPP is straightforward. It could help US allies in Asia, most notably Japan, reform and thus strengthen their economies, making them more capable geopolitical partners. Asian participants could diversify their economic relationships, becoming less dependent on an unpredictable China. A deal that genuinely offers China the option of eventually joining could also help draw Beijing in a more liberal direction.
TPP的地緣政治好處顯而易見。它可幫助美國的亞洲盟國（特別是日本）進行改革，由此加強它們的經濟，使它們成爲更具實力的地緣政治夥伴。參與TPP的亞洲國家可使它們的經濟關係變得更加多元，減少對難以捉摸的中國的依賴。如果該協定真的能爲中國提供一個最終加入進來的選擇，那麼它還有助於把中國拉上一條更加自由化的發展道路。
Conversely, if the talks collapse because of domestic squabbling, it will compound the narrative of US dysfunction, making it far harder for the US to lead. It would also make it easier for China to push its own trade arrangements in ways that exclude the US.
相反，如果美國國內的爭吵導致TPP談判破裂，會讓所謂美國機能紊亂的說法變得更有市場，大幅加大美國領導世界的難度，還會讓中國更容易推進它那些將美國排除在外的貿易安排。But selling the TPP by screaming “geopolitics” comes with serious risks. Unless the US is careful, China may come to see the deal as an attempt at economic containment. It is one thing to have a pact that reinforces America’s economic relations with friends and allies; one that encourages China to join after making a set of plausible economic reforms, much as it joined the World Trade Organisation. It is another to present the deal in a confrontational manner as a counterweight to China — the economic counterpart to a military strategy that would seek to keep the country pinned in.
但是，以強調“地緣政治”的方式兜售TPP，也伴隨着嚴重的風險。如果美國不小心行事，中國可能會將該協定視爲一個從經濟上遏制中國的企圖。達成一項加強美國與盟友經濟關係、同時鼓勵中國在推行一系列合理經濟改革後也加入其中（與中國加入世貿組織(WTO)的過程大致相同）的協定是一回事，以對抗性方式搞出一項協定、以此來制衡中國（即從經濟上遏制中國，與從軍事上遏制中國的戰略相對應）則是另一回事。
