中國加大邊境基建 拉近中朝聯繫

On a vast construction site outside this northeastern Chinese city, engineers are working around the clock on a project that could transform the economic─and geopolitical─dynamics of the region: A 223-mile high-speed rail link to the North Korean border.

在中國東北城市延吉城外的一個巨大施工現場，工程師們正日以繼夜地爲一個項目奮戰。這個項目可能改變該地區的經濟和地緣政治動態。這就是一條長達223英里（約合359公里）的連接至中朝邊境的高速鐵路。

The $6.3 billion project is one of three planned high-speed railways designed to bring North Korea closer into China's economic orbit, even as Beijing supports sanctions aimed at Pyongyang's leadership. China is also sinking millions of dollars into new highways and bridges in the area, and the first cross-border power cable.

這一造價高達63億美元的項目是擬建的三條旨在拉近朝鮮同中國經濟軌道距離的高速鐵路之一。與此同時，北京支持針對朝鮮領導層的制裁。此外，中國還投資數百萬美元在這一地區新建公路、橋樑以及首條跨境電力電纜。

China's long-term vision for closer economic integration with North Korea runs counter to a U.S. strategy aimed at piling pressure on Pyongyang to force it to abandon its nuclear-weapons program and refrain from further threats to attack the U.S. and South Korea.

中國希望提高中朝經濟一體化水平的長期願景與美國的戰略背道而馳。美國的戰略旨在向平壤施壓，迫使其放棄核武器計劃，使其不要進一步發出攻擊美國和韓國的威脅。

Analysts say that helps explain why there is little prospect of a breakthrough on North Korea when President Barack Obama meets China's new leader, Xi Jinping, in California this week, although U.S. officials say the subject will be high on the agenda.

分析人士說，這有助於解釋美國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和中國新任領導人習近平本週的加州會晤在朝鮮問題上不太可能取得突破的原因。雖然美國官員說朝鮮問題是雙方的討論重點。

Beijing's rhetoric conveys exasperation with the neighbor it backed during the 1950-53 Korean War and continues to prop up as its largest aid donor, trade partner and foreign investor. Some U.S. officials say China is showing signs of willingness to use its economic clout to restrain Pyongyang.

北京的言辭表明中國對朝鮮這一鄰國相當不滿。中國曾在1950年至1953年的朝鮮戰爭期間支持朝鮮，之後繼續向朝鮮提供支持，成爲其最大的援助國、貿易伙伴和外國投資者。一些美國官員說，中國正表現出願意利用其經濟影響力來約束平壤的跡象。

Facts on the ground suggest the opposite: China is pressing ahead with ambitious plans to expand trade, investment and infrastructure around its North Korean border as part of a long-term strategy to prop up a buffer against U.S. forces in Asia, and to provide incentives to Pyongyang to maintain stability and─ultimately─launch Chinese-style market reforms.

但實際情況卻恰好相反：中國正在推進雄心勃勃的計劃，以便在中朝邊境地區擴大貿易、投資和基礎設施規模，以此作爲一項長期戰略的一部分。這一戰略旨在向朝鮮這一制衡美國在亞洲力量的緩衝國提供支撐，同時向朝鮮提供激勵措施，以便該國保持穩定，並最終推出類似中國的市場化改革。

When it is finished in 2016, the railway under construction near Yanji will cut the journey between the Chinese city of Jilin and the remote border town of Hunchun to just over two hours from almost eight, according to the project's plans. By 2020, it is expected to boost Hunchun's population to over one million from 200,000 today thanks to an influx of migrants seeking to profit from border trade.

項目規劃顯示，2016年竣工時，延吉附近在建的這條鐵路將把吉林市至邊陲小鎮琿春的行車時間從原來的近八小時縮短至兩個小時多一點。預計到2020年，琿春的人口將從目前的20萬人增加至逾100萬人，這主要將得益於大量涌入的試圖從邊境貿易獲利的移民。

Work is also continuing on a high-speed rail link between the Chinese cities of Shenyang and Dandong─the busiest border crossing─and construction is due to finish this year on another connecting Dandong to the Chinese port of Dalian, according to state media. A new $356 million bridge over the border at Dandong─funded by China─ is also proceeding as planned.

據中國官方媒體報道，從瀋陽至丹東（中國最繁忙的邊境口岸）的另一條高速鐵路也在繼續施工。而另一條連接丹東和中國港口城市大連的高鐵線路將於今年完工。在丹東建設的一座耗資3.56億美元的跨境大橋（由中國出資）也正在按計劃推進。

China's strategy is also reflected in its customs figures, which show that its oil exports─the main source of North Korea's energy─rose 8.2% in March and remained steady in April following a decline to zero in February that diplomats and analysts say was due to cyclical seasonal factors.

中國海關數據也反映出中國的戰略：在今年2月中國對朝石油出口增幅降至零後，今年3月這一數據增至8.2%，4月也保持穩定。外交人士和分析人士說，2月中國對朝石油出口增幅降至零主要是由週期性季節因素所致。中國的石油是朝鮮能源的主要來源。

Several companies in Yanji and other border towns said they had reduced business with North Korea during the recent crisis─some of their own volition, others because they were told to by local authorities─but many said they were now returning to normal.

位於延吉和其它邊境城鎮的多家企業表示，在最近的危機期間，他們減少了對朝業務。此舉部分出於自願，部分是當地政府要求。但很多企業表示，業務量現已恢復正常水平。

Party insiders say Chinese leaders are indeed frustrated with Pyongyang, and have shown that by backing new U.N. sanctions, tightening rules on cross-border banking, and allowing an unusual level of criticism of North Korea in Chinese state media since it conducted a third nuclear test in February.

黨內人士說，中國領導人對平壤確實很失望，中國通過各種舉措也表現出這一點，包括支持聯合國對朝鮮新的制裁措施，收緊對跨境銀行業務的規定，自朝鮮今年2月進行了第三次核試驗後，中國還允許國有媒體對朝鮮進行了罕見程度的批評。

But even as it takes such short-term steps─which analysts say will have little effect on North Korea's nuclear program─China is doubling down on a long-term strategy that it now considers all the more necessary to offset the U.S. pivot toward Asia.

但在中國採取這類短期措施時，它也在押注一種長期戰略。中國目前認爲，如果要平衡美國將重心轉向亞洲，就更加有必要採取這種長期戰略。分析人士說，短期措施對朝鮮的核計劃幾乎不會造成影響。

The strategy is based on hopes that it can plug North Korea into its vast infrastructure network and gradually integrate it as a source of mineral resources and cheap labor and a transport hub for agricultural and industrial exports, Chinese analysts say.

中國分析人士說，這一長期戰略是基於中國方面的希望。中國希望能夠將朝鮮置入自己龐大的基礎設施網絡，將其作爲一個礦產資源和廉價勞動力來源及工農業出口產品運輸樞紐與自己進行融合。

It also sends a clear signal that China doesn't want to see a complete collapse of the North Korean economy, which most foreign analysts and officials have long assumed would lead to reunification with the U.S.-backed South.

中國還發出一個明確的信號，即中國不希望看到朝鮮經濟的徹底崩潰。大部分分析人士和官員一直認爲，若朝鮮經濟徹底崩潰，將導致朝鮮與美國支持的韓國統一。

'The Chinese are clearly sending messages to North Korea and they've been putting up less of a fight on North Korea's behalf, but the preference still is to do big-ticket economic cooperation to keep encouraging North Korea to get on the economic development track,' said John Delury, an expert on China and North Korea at Yonsei University in Seoul. 'From an American government point of view, that's in contradiction to the main strategy.'

首爾延世大學(Yonsei University)中國及朝鮮問題專家魯樂漢(John Delury)說，中國顯然是在向朝鮮發出信號，他們也更少地爲朝鮮抗爭了，但中國希望的仍是進行大規模經濟合作，以便繼續鼓勵朝鮮走上經濟發展道路。從美國政府的角度看，這有悖於他們的主要戰略。

The U.S. would welcome greater economic openness in North Korea, but fears that without stringent conditions attached, Chinese business links with Pyongyang only prop up the regime and encourage it to develop nuclear arms.

美國可能會歡迎朝鮮加大經濟開放力度，但它擔心在沒有附帶嚴格條件的情況下，中國與朝鮮的商業聯繫只會給朝鮮政權提供支持，鼓勵其研製核武器。

The Obama administration maintains hope that China is going to cooperate with the U.S. in increasing pressure on North Korea, senior U.S. officials said. Despite the Chinese increase in trade and investment with Pyongyang, U.S. officials said they believed Beijing has been taking stricter measures against Pyongyang since February. They pointed to China's largest state bank, Bank of China Ltd., -0.68% cutting off its business with North Korea's main foreign exchange bank last month, a move U.S. officials believe could make it much more difficult for Pyongyang to conduct international business dealings.

美國高級官員說，奧巴馬政府仍抱有希望，認爲中國將與美國合作向朝鮮施加更大的壓力。儘管中國與朝鮮擴大了貿易和投資，但美國官員說，他們認爲，自2月以來北京對朝鮮實施了更嚴厲的措施。他們指出，中國最大的國有銀行中國銀行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd.)上個月切斷了與朝鮮主要外匯銀行的業務往來。美國官員認爲，此舉可能極大地增加了朝鮮開展國際商業往來的難度。

Still, many U.S. lawmakers and analysts are skeptical that China is going to provide Washington with much support. A number of lawmakers are calling on the White House to sanction more Chinese firms for their trade with both North Korea and Iran.

不過，很多美國國會議員和分析人士懷疑中國是否會向華盛頓提供太多支持。一些議員呼籲白宮制裁更多與朝鮮和伊朗有貿易關係的中國企業。

Both U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew raised the issue of increasing financial pressure on North Korea during their meetings with senior Chinese leaders in Beijing over the past month.

過去一個月，美國國務卿克里(John Kerry)和財政部長盧(Jacob Lew)在北京與中國高層領導人會晤時都提出了向朝鮮施加更大金融壓力的問題。

At the construction site outside Yanji, Chinese workers on Monday said they had resumed work last month after a winter break. 'We build things quickly in China,' said one contractor. 'Ten years ago there was nothing here. In a few years, this will be finished.'

在延吉郊外的建築工地，中國工人週一說，在冬季停工後，上個月已經恢復施工。一位承包商說，我們在中國建東西很快。10年前這裏還什麼都沒有。這個項目幾年後就能完工。

The World Bank, which partly funded the railway, confirmed that it was on schedule and wasn't affected by the recent North Korean crisis. Binyam Reja, transport-sector coordinator for the World Bank in China, said it could be a 'launchpad' for cross-border trade, although it was designed primarily to facilitate migration and urbanization in China's far northeast, and wouldn't carry freight.

世界銀行(World Bank)爲該鐵路提供部分資金。世界銀行證實說，項目正在按計劃推進，沒有受到最近朝鮮危機的影響。世界銀行中國局交通部主任任斌(Binyam Reja)說，這可能是跨境貿易的一個“發射臺”，不過主要是爲了方便中國東北地區的人員流動和城市化，不會運貨。

In China's eyes, however, the three high-speed rail links are an integral part of a strategy that is explicitly linked to North Korea, and dates back to earlier nuclear tests by Pyongyang.

但在中國看來，這三條高速鐵路是顯然與朝鮮有關的一項戰略的主要組成部分，這項戰略可追溯至平壤以前進行的核試驗。

After North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, China protested publicly, backed U.N. sanctions and made better relations with Pyongyang dependent on its taking steps to dismantle its nuclear-arms program. But after the second test in 2009, China shifted tack, promising to increase aid, investment and trade if Pyongyang opened up its economy and returned to multilateral talks.

2006年朝鮮進行首次核武器試驗後，中國公開表示抗議，支持聯合國制裁朝鮮，並且視平壤採取的放棄核武器計劃的措施爲前提，改善了與平壤的關係。但2009年朝鮮再次進行核試驗後，中國改變了策略，承諾如平壤開放經濟，回到多邊談判中來，將增加對朝鮮的援助、投資和貿易。

Beijing's strategy has had little effect on North Korean policy so far. But it has transformed the Chinese side of the border and swollen the number of North Koreans engaging in cross-border trade.

到目前爲止，北京的對朝政策收效甚微，但卻改變了中國邊境的狀況，促使大批朝鮮人從事跨境貿易。

The strategy is also intertwined with China's plan to promote economic development in its northeast─once the heartland of centrally-planned heavy industry─by establishing road and rail-transport corridors to Mongolia, Russia and North Korea, and giving the landlocked province of Jilin access to the sea via the nearby North Korean port of Rason, around which North Korea has set up a special economic zone.

此外，這個戰略還與中國推動東北經濟發展的規劃交織在一起。東北曾是中國計劃經濟時代的重工業中心。中國打算建設通往蒙古、俄羅斯和朝鮮的公路和鐵路運輸通道，並讓內陸省份吉林利用附近的朝鮮羅先港(Rason)，從而推動東北地區的經濟發展。朝鮮已在羅先周邊建立了經濟特區。

Jilin is of particular concern because of its large ethnic Korean population, which Beijing fears could come under the influence of a united Korea, run by Seoul, if Pyongyang were to collapse.

吉林因爲朝鮮族人口衆多，受到特別關注。北京擔心，如果平壤政權垮臺，朝韓統一後由韓國管理，吉林的朝鮮族人可能會受影響。

China's State Council, or cabinet, approved that plan in 2009 and has set a target of 19% average annual gross-domestic-product growth until 2020, according to government research reports on the project. Jilin's government said in March it planned to increase trade with Russia and North Korea by 13% annually in the same period.

東北經濟發展項目政府研究報告顯示，中國國務院2009年批准通過了那項規劃，制定了2020年前GDP年均增速19%的目標。吉林省政府今年3月說，打算在2020年前將與俄羅斯和朝鮮的貿易額每年增加13%。

Key to the plan is Rason port, which Chinese experts say will allow companies in northeastern China to export coal and agricultural products to Japan, South Korea and southern China several days faster than it currently takes to transport them via the already overloaded Chinese ports of Dandong or Dalian. Chinese companies have leased two piers at Rason, and two more at another North Korean port, Chongjin.

這項計劃的關鍵點就是羅先港。中國專家說，中國東北地區的公司若經由該港口貨運，煤炭和農產品運至日本、韓國和華南地區的時間將比目前經由超負荷的丹東或大連港運輸要縮短几天。中國公司在羅先租用了兩個碼頭，在朝鮮另一個港口清津(Chongjin)也租用了兩個碼頭。

'We hope to jointly promote completion of the development of Rason port, and construction of the harbor business district, and expand cooperation in finance, property and other wider areas,' Bayin Chaolu, Jilin's governor, was quoted as saying in April in the Jilin Daily, the local government newspaper.

吉林省委機關報《吉林日報》今年4月援引吉林省長巴音朝魯的話說，我們希望共同推動搞好羅先港口開發與臨港商務區建設，並且在金融、地產等更寬領域擴大合作。

Another local newspaper quoted officials in May saying they would speed plans to connect Hunchun to North Korea by railway.

該省另一家報紙5月援引有關官員的話說，將加快琿春到朝鮮的鐵路建設計劃。

Hong Lei, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, didn't respond directly to a question this week about whether China was proceeding with plans to develop trade, infrastructure and investment around the border. He repeated China's call for peace on the Korean peninsula, and a return to 'six-party' talks between China, Japan, Russia, the U.S. and North and South Korea.

中國外交部發言人洪磊本週沒有直接答覆有關中國是否在推進發展中朝邊境貿易、基礎設施和投資計劃的問題。他重申，中國呼籲朝鮮半島和平，呼籲中國、日本、俄羅斯、美國、朝鮮和韓國重新展開“六方會談”。

Several other national and local government officials declined to comment. But Chinese experts who have studied the plans, and advised the government on them, said they had been unaffected by the latest crisis, and in some areas, had accelerated.

中國國家和地方政府的其他幾名官員不予置評。但研究過這些規劃並向政府提供相關諮詢意見的中國專家說，這些規劃沒有受到最近這次危機的影響，甚至在某些方面還在加速推行。

'Not only is there no change to the plan, but we're pushing it forward even faster,' said Professor Zhang Qi of the China Development Research Institute, which has studied the plan. 'Our hope is to encourage North Korea to begin the process of reform and opening up. We think China and the U.S. should join hands to try to encourage North Korea to follow the correct path.'

研究了該計劃的中國發展研究院的教授章琦說，不僅計劃沒有改變，我們還在加速推進這一計劃；我們希望鼓勵朝鮮開啓改革開放進程，我們認爲中美兩國應該攜手鼓勵朝鮮走上正確的道路。

He said progress had been slow in recent years, partly because North Korea remains wary of opening its economy too fast, and partly because of the repeated political crises on the peninsula. But the first tarmac road between Hunchun and Rason was completed last year. It cut the journey time from about three hours to just 45 minutes, according to one person who has traveled on it recently.

他說，最近幾年的進展一直緩慢，一個原因是朝鮮仍然對過快地開放經濟持謹慎態度，另外的一個原因是朝鮮半島反覆出現的政治危機。不過，琿春和羅先特別市之間的第一條柏油馬路已於去年完工。最近曾走過這條公路的一名人士說，這條路將兩地間的車程從大約三小時縮短到了僅45分鐘。

China has also approved a plan to build a 61-mile transmission cable connecting Rason to China's state electricity grid in Hunchun, according to a statement from the local government in March. That will be the first time China's state grid has provided power directly to a foreign country, according to state media reports and Chinese experts.

根據地方政府3月份發表的一份聲明，中國已經批准了建設一條使羅先接入琿春中國國家電網的運輸電纜的計劃。這條運輸電纜的長度大約90公里。據國有媒體的報道和一些專家的說法，這將是中國國家電網首次直接向外國提供電力。

Chinese analysts also say the plan has a powerful political patron in Sun Zhengcai, the former provincial party chief of Jilin who was promoted to the Politburo─the party's top 25 leaders─in November and is considered a front-runner for a seat on the narrower Politburo Standing Committee in 2017 or 2022.

中國的分析人士還說，該計劃擁有一個強大的政治靠山，那就是前吉林省省委書記孫政才。孫政纔去年11月晉升至由中共最高的25名領導人組成的中共中央政治局，孫政才被認爲是將在2017年或2022年進入中共中央政治局常委會的熱門人選。

Mr. Sun, who was appointed last year as party chief of the western city of Chongqing, was among a small group of Chinese leaders who met Choe Ryong-hae, vice chairman of North Korea's top military body, when he visited Beijing last month, according to diplomats and Chinese experts on Korean affairs.

孫政纔去年被任命爲重慶市市委書記。據外交人士及中國的朝鮮問題專家說，朝鮮勞動黨中央軍事委員會副委員長崔龍海(Choe Ryong Hae)上個月訪問北京時，孫政纔是少數與其見面的中國官員之一。

Those people say it remains unclear whether Mr. Kim will be any more likely than his father to embrace Chinese style reforms, but they are encouraged so far by his uncle and key adviser, Gen. Jang Sung-taek.

這些人士說，目前仍不清楚金正恩是否比他的父親更有可能採納中國式的改革，但是到目前爲止，金正恩的姑父兼主要顧問將軍張成澤(Jang Seong Taek)對改革表示支持。

Gen. Jang visited China in August as head of a North Korean delegation to discuss economic cooperation with China, according to Chinese and North Korean state media reports. During his visit, he hosted a business conference in Beijing to attract more Chinese investment. The same month, China announced the establishment of a 3 billion yuan ($490 million) fund to invest in North Korea.

根據中國和朝鮮的國有媒體的報道，張成澤去年8月帶領朝鮮代表團訪問了中國，並與中國探討了經濟合作方面的事宜。在訪問期間，他在北京主持了一個旨在吸引更多中國投資的商業會議。同月，中國宣佈建立一隻人民幣30億元的基金，以對朝鮮進行投資。

China Overseas Investment Co., which runs the fund, posted details on its website in March of 20 North Korean projects that are seeking Chinese investment, including 17 mining concerns, and company officials are expected to travel to North Korea shortly to visit the sites, according to a person familiar with the fund.

管理着這隻基金的中海投(China Overseas Investment Co.)今年3月在網站上公佈了20個尋求中國投資的朝鮮項目的具體信息，其中包括17個礦業公司。一名熟悉這隻基金的人士說，預計一些企業的管理人員將很快前往朝鮮進行實地考察。

Interest among Chinese firms is lackluster and mostly confined to businesses with government links in the northeast, according to Chinese experts. Chinese companies have often struggled to make money there because of the absence of any legal framework or business-oriented policies. Many complain of being defrauded.

中國專家說，中國企業對投資朝鮮興趣不大，而且有興趣的主要是東北地區與政府有聯繫的企業。中國公司通常難以在朝鮮獲得利潤，因爲朝鮮缺乏法律框架和以企業爲導向的政策。許多公司稱受到欺詐。

Chinese businesses are also conscious that repeated attempts to establish special economic zones in North Korea since 1991 have foundered because of a lack of policy support in China and North Korea.

中國企業還意識到，由於在中國和朝鮮缺乏政策支持，1991年以來在朝鮮建立特別經濟區的多次嘗試已經失敗。

'This time it is different because the plans have the direct back of the central government in China,' said Sunny Seong-hyon Lee, who researches China's links with North Korea and is a nonresident fellow of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think tank.

夏威夷智庫太平洋論壇(Pacific Forum CSIS)的非常駐研究員、研究中國與朝鮮往來的李成賢(Sunny Seong-hyon Lee)說，這一次情況不同了，因爲這些計劃擁有中國中央政府的直接支持。

'North Korea's behavior doesn't make any difference to China's overall strategy. What matters is what the U.S. does in the Asia Pacific.'

李成賢說，朝鮮的行爲對中國的整體戰略不會有任何影響，重要的是美國會在亞太做些什麼。