時事新聞:中國政府會爲“十一”救股市？
【英文原文】
It is the very definition of historical irony. Preparing to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party won't want a plunging stock market to mar the festivities.
This is the latest thinking among traders, who are trying to rationalize an end to the slide in Chinese stocks. It highlights the Shanghai market's defining characteristic: Successful investing there is achieved by sniffing the winds from Beijing.
The selloff - which has the Shanghai Composite down 17% from its Aug. 4 high - is credited to fear that Beijing will begin to tame its massive rate of bank loan expansion.
This isn't about the economic impact of such a move. The selling has come alongside upgrades by many economists on expectations for China's growth.
Rather it's a question of what impact that lending has had on lifting prices. Some 20% of the $1.1 trillion Chinese banks lent in the first half of the year are estimated to have flowed into stock and property markets.
Beijing has a number of tools at its disposal to turn sentiment around. Quickening the pace of new mutual funds launches will create more avenues for individual Chinese to route their savings into stocks, for example.
Slashing the stamp duty - the tax charged on stock trading - would be another clear signal that policy makers are looking to turn things around.
This won't be just about face saving. China's robust pipeline of initial public offerings, many by state run companies, requires a healthy market.
The government's also looking to launch a new small companies exchange. More recently, plans for major multinationals, such as HSBC, to float in China have emerged. There's also longer-running ambitions to launch stock-futures and margin trading that require a high degree of investor interest.
Still, the Oct. 1 anniversary of the founding of the PRC features high on the list of motives for Beijing to step in if the selling continues.
It doesn't guarantee success, though. In 2008, a similar expectation was framed around the summer Olympics. By the time the games began, the Shanghai composite was down 58% from the start of the year.
But then, the Olympics were only games. Chinese state birthday parties are much more serious.
【中文譯文】
中國政府正在爲建國60週年慶典進行緊張籌備，他們不希望股市大幅下挫影響到慶典活動。
這是股市交易員間新近流傳的想法，他們試圖爲中國股市結束下挫找到一個合理理由。這折射出了中國股市的一個重要特徵：若要成功投資中國股市，就必須把握來自北京的風吹草動。
上證綜合指數已經自8月4日高點下挫了17%，市場將目前這波跌勢歸咎於投資者擔心中國政府會開始放緩銀行鉅額放貸增長步伐。
市場並不是擔心中國政府此舉對經濟造成的影響。在股市下跌的同時，很多經濟學家上調了對中國經濟增長的預期。
市場擔心的是放緩信貸增長舉措會對資產價格上漲造成什麼影響。今年上半年中國銀行業新增貸款1.1萬億美元，據估計其中20%的資金都流入了股市和房市。
中國政府有諸多政策選擇可以來扭轉股市人氣。舉例來說，加快推出新的共同基金，給中國散戶投資者帶來更多渠道，將他們的積蓄投資到股市當中。
此外，中國政府還可以下調印花稅，這是另外一個決策者尋求扭轉局面的明確信號。
這並不只是爲了保全面子。中國還有大量等待發行的首次公開募股(IPO)交易，很多都來自於國有公司，這需要一個穩定健康的股市。
中國政府還希望推出一個創業板市場。近期還出現了引進匯豐控股(HSBC)等主要跨國公司到中國股市上市的計劃。中國政府還有着推出股指期貨以及融資融券交易的較長期計劃，這需要吸引更多投資者的興趣。
不過，如果股市持續下跌導致中國政府介入干預的話，最主要的動機可能還是確保穩定以迎接建國60週年慶典。
不過，這不一定會獲得成功。去年奧運會之前中國股市也曾有過類似的預期。但等奧運會開幕的時候，上證綜合指數已經較年初時下滑了58%。
不過，奧運會畢竟只是場賽事。中國的建國慶典可能具有更爲重要的意義。
