時事新聞:公司收入不增 股市能否上漲？

【英文原文】

Can Rally Run Without Revenue?

As stock investors turn their focus to earnings prospects for the second half and 2010, they are zeroing in on one of the market's biggest challenges: lackluster corporate revenue.

The market barreled ahead this summer and is hovering near its high for the year, fueled in large part by stronger than-expected second-quarter earnings. But a significant driver of the good news was cost cutting. Many companies posted disappointing sales.

In the short-term, earnings prospects may remain favorable for the market. Aggressive expense control and modest inventory restocking could boost third-quarter numbers, while the fourth quarter has easy comparisons against an awful 2008 that will give the appearance of healthy profit increases. But in 2010, the ability of stocks to sustain or extend their advances will have to come from a revival in sales, strategists say. In an uncertain economic environment, that won't be an easy task.

'You can not simply cut costs forever to have sustainable earnings. You need revenues to grow them over time,' says Dirk Van Dijk, chief equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research. However, 'it's going to be really, really tough' to increase revenue in the current economy, he says.

For now, stock prices suggest many investors are comfortable knowing that at least the decline in profits has been halted.

Heading into September, a notoriously bad month for stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.75% for the year at 9544.20. That is just off from the best levels seen since early last November. Though trading volume has been light in recent days, the market has been able to hold on to a rally that sent the Dow industrials up 12% since mid-July and up 45.8% from the March 9 low.

According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., 46% of companies beat Wall Street's earnings expectations by a wide margin, but only 23% significantly bettered revenue forecasts. Sales among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell 16% in the second quarter from a year earlier, following a 14% decline in the first quarter.

David Kostin, an equity strategist at Goldman, points to a decline in a key line item on corporate income statements known as 'selling, general and administrative expenses' otherwise known as SG&A. Included in SG&A are salaries and costs of doing business, such as travel or advertising.

SG&A plunged 6.4% in the second quarter from the year-earlier period, Goldman says. In contrast, in the last recession, SG&A fell just 0.2% and in 1991, it dropped 4.1%.

'There's been an unprecedented decline in overhead costs,' Mr. Kostin says.

A big part of the challenge for generating an upturn in sales is that consumers, whose spending has driven roughly 70% of economic activity in recent years, are hamstrung by a bleak job market. That was evidenced Friday by a weak reading on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan and government data showing incomes were flat in July.

This environment typically leads to disparate performances between sectors and stocks, according to strategists at Ned Davis Research.

In the initial stage of a recovery from a bear market, the stocks that have fallen the most tend to be the ones that rebound the strongest. 'After a bottom, the market shifts to more industry-specific and company-specific factors,' says Amy Lubas, senior equity strategist at Ned Davis.

Such differentiation will most benefit those companies that have both cut their costs and have the best prospects for revenue growth, says Goldman's Mr. Kostin.

Among S&P sectors, materials stocks posted the biggest decline in SG&A costs -- down nearly 10% -- followed by information technology. Energy companies, too, have cut costs significantly. In contrast, SG&A costs rose at telecommunications companies and fell only 1% at consumer staples names.

Mr. Kostin says the most likely sources for revenue growth are outside the U.S., where technology, energy and materials companies get the greatest percentage of revenue.

More narrowly, Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to be the strongest performing economies, and, Mr. Kostin says, the best revenue prospects. Already, a basket of stocks that Goldman identifies as having the greatest business from those so-called BRIC nations has done 29 percentage points better than the S&P 500 this year.

Barry Knapp, equity strategist at Barclays Capital, favors industrials as a play on the cost-cutting binge. 'They've been cutting costs for nine years,' he says. 'That sector looks really well-poised for coming out of the recession.'

In addition, technology companies, which have lifted the Nasdaq Composite Index 29% this year, also look good on the cost cutting and revenue metrics, Mr. Knapp says. 'But once you get into the consumer discretionary, staples and services areas, it's not quite as good a story,' Mr. Knapp says.

Zack's Mr. Van Dijk says that short term there could be good earnings news for retailers. 'You have a bunch of retailers who have really cut their inventories way down, and if they do see any pickup at all, their turnover will zoom and that lowers their costs significantly,' he says, noting that already it is a group for which analysts have upgraded earnings forecasts.

Still, for retailers aimed at the middle-class, such as Macy's, J.C. Penney and Gap, the good news won't last long.

'They may be good for a trade, but they're a lousy long-term investment,' Mr. Van Dijk says. 'They just have too many headwinds against them.'

【中文譯文】

隨着股市投資者將重心轉向下半年和2010年的盈利前景，他們將目光對準了市場上一個最大的挑戰：企業收入的疲軟。

市場今年夏季持續走高，目前正徘徊在全年的最高點附近，這主要是受強於預期的第二季度收益的推動。但這個好消息的重要推動力是成本的削減。許多公司發佈的銷售情況都令人失望。

在短期內，收益前景可能仍有利於市場上漲。嚴格的開支控制和適度的庫存補充能夠提高第三季度的業績，而第四季度與2008年的糟糕業績相比也將有一個良好的利潤增長。但策略師說，進入2010年後，股票維持或擴大漲勢的能力將取決於銷售的復甦。在一個不確定的經濟環境下，要做到這點並非易事。

Zacks Investment Research首席股票策略師凡戴克(Dirk Van Dijk)說，你不能永遠只靠降低成本推動收益的持續增長。隨着時間的推移，你要有收入的增長才行。不過他說，在目前的經濟環境下要增加收入非常、非常的困難。

目前的股票價格表明，許多投資者都認爲至少利潤的下降已經停止了。

股市在9月份的歷史走勢都不太好。不過今年以來，道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數上漲了8.75%，至9544.20點。這隻略低於去年11月初以來的最高點位。雖然近日交投清淡，但市場仍能延續反彈走勢，自7月中旬以來已上漲了12%，較3月9日的低點更是上漲了45.8%。

據高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)稱，46%的公司大幅度超過了華爾街的收益預期，但只有收入明顯超過預期的公司只有23%。標準普爾500指數中公司的銷售額比去年第二季度下降了16%，高於第一季度14%的降幅。

高盛股票策略師考斯汀(David Kostin)提到了公司利潤表中明細欄中銷售和管理費用的下降。包括在銷售和管理費用中的包括薪資和業務成本，如差旅費和廣告支出。

高盛稱，第二季度的銷售和管理費用比上年同期大幅下降了6.4%。與此形成鮮明對比的是，在上一次衰退中，銷售和管理費用僅下降了0.2%，而1991年的衰退中，銷售和管理費用下降了4.1%。

考斯汀說，間接成本出現了前所未有的下降。

實現銷售好轉難在就業市場的不景氣嚴重打擊了消費者的能力，近年來，消費者開支推動了大約70%的經濟活動。密歇根大學(University of Michigan)上週五的報告顯示消費者信心疲弱，政府數據也顯示7月份收入持平，這些都證明了這一點。

市場分析和基金管理公司Ned Davis Research的策略師們認爲，當前的形勢通常會導致不同行業和不同股票出現分化。

在熊市復甦的初期階段，跌得最狠的股票往往也是反彈最強勁的。Ned Davis的資深資產分析師盧巴斯(Amy Lubas)說，觸底之後，市場會轉向按行業和公司具體細分的因素。

高盛的科斯汀說，這樣的分化對於既削減了成本、又擁有最好的收入增長前景的公司最爲有利。

在標普各版塊中，原材料類股的銷售和管理費用降幅最大（近10%），其次爲IT類股。能源公司也大幅削減了成本。相比之下，電信類公司的銷售和管理費用出現上升，大宗消費品類僅下降1%。

科斯汀說，收入增長最有可能的來源是海外，因技術、能源和原材料公司收入很大一部分來自海外。

科斯汀說，更確切地說，巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國可能會是表現最好的經濟體，也是收入前景最好的。高盛認爲金磚四國業績最好的一藍子股票今年已經比標普500指數高出29個百分點。

Barclays Capital的資產分析師奈普(Barry Knapp)青睞削減成本成績斐然的工業類股。他說，它們9年來一直在削減成本，看上去這個行業已經做好走出衰退的準備。

奈普說，除此而外，推動納斯達克綜合指數上漲29%的科技公司在削減成本和增加收入方面也做得不錯，不過非必需消費品、消費品和服務行業的情況並不是那麼好。

Zack的凡戴克說，短期內，零售商可能會有不錯的收益。他說，有一些零售商減少了大量存貨，如果經濟好轉，他們的營業額就會激增，成本也就會明顯下降，他強調，分析師們已經上調了一些零售商的收益預期。

不過，對於Macy's、J.C. Penney和Gap等針對中產階級的零售商來說，好消息可能不會持久。

凡戴克說，這些零售商作爲一時的交易對象可能還不錯，但卻是糟糕的長期投資對象，它們面臨着太多的不利因素。