兩孩政策生效以來中國出生人口首次下降

The annual number of births in China has fallen for the first time since Beijing relaxed its one-child policy, suggesting that the reform has failed to reverse declining fertility rates that economists warn are a long-term threat to the country’s development.

中國的年度出生人數出現自政府放寬獨生子女政策以來的首次下降，似乎表明這一改革未能扭轉生育率的下降。經濟學家們警告稱，這對中國的發展是一個長期威脅。

There were 17.23m births in China in 2017, down from 17.86m the previous year, the country’s national statistics bureau said on Thursday.

中國國家統計局週四表示，2017年中國出生人口1723萬人，比上年的1786萬人有所下降。

The ruling Communist party’s policy allowing all couples to have two children came into force in 2016, leading to a 1.3m increase in births that year compared with 2015.

執政的共產黨允許所有夫婦生育兩個孩子的政策在2016年生效，導致該年出生人數比2015年增加130萬人。

Analysts said that the rise in births in 2016 was probably a one-off as couples who had been waiting to have a second child did so as soon as the policy changed.

分析人士稱，2016年出生人數的上升很可能是一次性的，因爲等待生育第二胎的夫婦在政策改變後馬上利用了該政策。

“Some people took advantage of the lifting of the ban but most Chinese, even in rural areas, are concerned about how to pay for education?.?.?.?Its very hard to encourage people to have more children,” said Martin Whyte, a professor of sociology at Harvard University.

“有一部分人利用了禁令解除，但大多數中國人——甚至在農村也是如此——都擔心如何支付教育費用……很難鼓勵人們生更多孩子，”哈佛大學(Harvard University)社會學教授懷默霆(Martin King Whyte)表示。

Economists have warned that falling birth rates in China are leading to a rapid ageing of the population and creating a shortage of workers. That is placing a greater burden on social services even while per capita incomes in the country lag behind developed nations, which have struggled with declining fertility rates for decades.

經濟學家們警告稱，中國的出生率下降正在導致人口迅速老齡化和勞動力短缺。這給社會服務帶來了更大的負擔，而與此同時中國的人均收入仍低於發達國家水平，後者竭力應對生育率下降已有幾十年之久。

“China is experiencing problems that mostly more developed countries have experienced for a long time,” added Mr Whyte.

“中國正在經歷以更發達國家爲主的其他一些國家早就遇到的問題，”懷默霆補充說。

By about the middle of this century, one in every three Chinese people is forecast to be aged more than 60. Beijing expects the country’s population to peak in about 2030 at 1.4bn, before going into a gradual decline.

到本世紀中葉前後，預計中國三分之一的人口年齡將在60歲以上。北京方面預計，中國人口將在2030年左右達到14億的頂峯，然後逐年下降。

Analysts say shifts in attitudes, such as a greater emphasis on investing in children’s education, are lowering the country’s fertility rate. Some demographers say that these trends were evident even before the one-child policy was introduced in 1979, meaning the demographic shift would have happened regardless.

分析人士表示，態度的轉變，比如更加重視投資於孩子的教育，正在降低中國的生育率。一些人口結構專家稱，這些趨勢即使在1979年實行獨生子女政策之前就顯而易見，這意味着人口結構的變化無論如何都會發生。

Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demography expert at the University of Oxford, said: “Starting a family and having children in China is really hard work?.?.?.?Age at marriage is creeping up finally, which will also depress fertility rates.”

牛津大學(University of Oxford)的人口結構問題專家斯圖爾特?吉特爾-巴斯滕(Stuart Gietel-Basten)表示：“成家和生孩子在中國是非常艱辛的事情……結婚年齡終於逐漸推遲了，這也會壓低生育率。”

To counter the falling birth rate, some Chinese commentators are advocating tax breaks and subsidies to encourage couples to have more children.

爲了應對出生率下降，中國一些評論人士呼籲出臺減稅和補貼措施，以鼓勵夫妻生育更多孩子。

The introduction of the two-child policy affected China’s urban residents more than those in rural areas, mainly because the policy was not enforced as stringently outside the cities.

實行兩孩政策對中國城市居民的影響要大於對農村居民的影響，主要原因是當初獨生子女政策在城市以外的執行力度較低。

But Chinese city dwellers tend to have a preference for fewer children, partly because they perceive the costs of raising a child as prohibitive and because women in cities are more educated. “The change disproportionately affected urban couples who have lower fertility preference anyway,” added Mr Gietel-Basten.

但中國城市居民傾向於少生，部分原因是他們認爲撫養孩子的成本太高，而且城市裏的女性受教育程度較高。“政策變化對城市夫婦的影響超出比例，而這些人無論如何都喜歡少生，”吉特爾-巴斯滕補充道。