英鎊貶值 硬退歐預示英國走向封閉
The surprising thing about the fall in the value of sterling is that it has not been more precipitous.
關於英鎊貶值，令人意外的是貶值幅度沒有更加陡峭。
Britain is shuffling towards an outright rupture with the EU and an immigration clampdown that would weaken engagement with the world beyond.
英國正逐漸滑向與歐盟徹底斷絕關係，並對移民關上大門，從而削弱它與世界其他地區的接觸。
The government has yet to grasp a simple fact of globalisation: nations cannot declare themselves open for business and then close the door to foreigners.
英國政府至今沒有搞懂全球化的一個簡單事實：一個國家不可能宣稱自己對商業開放，隨後卻對外國人關上大門。
Britain will be poorer after Brexit — the pound’s devaluation is acting as a transmission mechanism to reduce living standards.
英國在脫離歐盟後將變得更加貧窮——英鎊貶值正作爲一種傳導機制，降低英國人的生活水平。
Just how much poorer will depend on the quality of the relationship Britain retains with its biggest trading partner and on whether it can compensate for lost European opportunities by becoming a more attractive destination for others.
最終在多大程度上變窮，將取決於英國與其最大貿易伙伴能夠保留的關係質量，以及它能否成爲對其他國家更具吸引力的經貿往來對象，從而彌補在歐洲失去的機遇。
A soft Brexit and an open economy should be the goal.
目標應該是軟退歐和開放經濟。
The preoccupation, some would say obsession, with immigration points in the opposite direction, to a hard break with the EU and a less hospitable business environment for nations further afield.
念念不忘（一些人會說糾結於）移民問題指向相反的方向，即與歐盟徹底斬斷關係，同時對歐洲以外國家來說商業環境變得不那麼友好。
Theresa May’s debut this week at an EU summit in Brussels will see the prime minister pressed by European colleagues for a clear sense of Britain’s direction.
特里薩.梅(Theresa May)本週首次作爲英國首相出席在布魯塞爾舉行的歐盟峯會，屆時歐洲其他國家領導人將追問她：英國究竟會怎麼走？他們將會失望。
They will be disappointed.
英國政府迄今仍未提出一套連貫的分手戰略。
The government has yet to come up with a coherent strategy for disengagement.
英國政府拿不出計劃，有的只是一系列不一致的衝動，
In place of a plan, there are a series of inconsistent impulses and a cabinet power struggle between anti-EU zealots and economic pragmatists.
以及內閣中反歐盟狂熱分子與經濟務實主義者之間的權鬥。
At the Conservative party conference Mrs May felt obliged to lean towards zealotry.
在保守黨大會上，梅覺得有必要偏向狂熱分子。
Britain’s red lines, she said, include national control of borders and an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
她說，英國的紅線包括國家控制邊境以及終結歐洲法院(European Court of Justice)的司法管轄權。
Now she is beginning to assess the likely economic costs of such a stance.
現在她開始評估此類立場可能造成的經濟代價。
After talks the other day with Mrs May in Copenhagen, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Denmark’s prime minister, remarked: There’s quite a lot of work that needs to be done in the UK before there is a clear view of what the British want.
丹麥首相拉爾斯.勒克.拉斯穆森(Lars Loekke Rasmussen)最近在哥本哈根與梅交談之後表示：英國需要做大量工作，才能明確表述英國想要什麼。
That is a charitable interpretation of the infighting in Whitehall.
此言是對白廳內鬥的委婉解讀。
On the one side, the argument is the now familiar one about whether to opt for a clean break with the EU or try to seek a close association that preserves privileged access to the single market; on the other, the debate is whether a post-Brexit Britain can become a beacon of free trade and a destination of choice for global businesses.
一方面，如今人們耳熟能詳的爭論是：應該與歐盟一刀兩斷，還是試圖爭取一種密切聯繫，保住單一市場的優惠准入？另一方面，人們就退歐後的英國能否成爲自由貿易的燈塔和全球企業的首選目的地展開辯論。
Some of the more fervent Brexiters like to say that an unequivocal rupture, freeing Britain from all EU encumbrances, would be the prelude to an opening-up to the rest of the world.
一些比較狂熱的退歐人士喜歡說，讓英國擺脫所有歐盟累贅的堅決分手，將是英國向世界其他國家開放的序曲。
Britain would swap its ties with a sclerotic Europe for a stake in the dynamism of rising economies such as China and India.
英國將與僵化的歐洲斬斷關係，代之以參與中國和印度等充滿活力的崛起中的經濟體。
Liam Fox, the trade secretary, imagines this buccaneering Britain as a global champion of free trade and economic liberalism: Singapore writ large.
按照英國貿易大臣利亞姆.福克斯(Liam Fox)的想象，這個敢於闖蕩的英國將成爲全球自由貿易和經濟自由主義的捍衛者：一個放大版本的新加坡。
The flaw is that is not what people on the Leave side thought they were voting for in the June referendum.
問題在於，這不是持退歐立場的人們在今年6月的公投中投票支持的格局。
The Brexiters promised to tame the plutocrats and offered a calculatedly nationalist message about turning back the tide of immigration.
當初退歐陣營承諾馴服有錢有勢的人，同時傳達出有關擋住移民潮的精心構思的民族主義信息。
Brussels was cast as the agent of a global capitalism that saw Goldman Sachs and the European Commission in cahoots.
布魯塞爾被描述爲全球資本主義的代理人，按照那種邏輯，高盛(Goldman Sachs)和歐盟委員會(European Commission)沆瀣一氣。
The referendum result was a vote for economic nationalism rather than for laissez faire.
公投結果說明選民支持經濟民族主義，而非自由放任主義。
Mrs May has taken this message to heart, in part because it chimes with her personal political instincts.
梅認真對待這個信息，這在一定程度上是因爲它與她本人的政治直覺合拍。
She has castigated overpaid corporate bosses, called for worker representatives on company boards, imposed stricter controls on foreign investment in strategic sectors of the economy, and emphasised the role of government in shaping the economic landscape.
她譴責薪酬過高的企業老闆，呼籲工人代表加入公司董事會，對戰略經濟領域的外國投資施加更嚴厲控制，並注重政府在塑造經濟格局中的角色。
What the prime minister is looking for is a new social contract in which big business acknowledges a wider set of responsibilities.
這位英國首相尋求一種新型社會契約，讓大企業承擔更廣泛的責任。
The prime minister has a point.
梅不無道理。
But she has also reinstated a pledge to cut net migration by more than two-thirds: from its present level of more than 320,000 a year to less than 100,000.
但她也重申將淨移民數量削減三分之二以上：從當前的每年逾32萬人降至不足10萬人。
To put that target in perspective: even if the frontiers were shut entirely to migrants from the EU — something not demanded by even the most strident Eurosceptics — the numbers arriving from countries such as India, China, the US and Australia would have to be halved.
這個目標在實踐中意味着：即便完全禁止歐盟國家公民移民英國——就連最強硬的歐洲懷疑論者也沒有這麼要求——那也得將印度、中國、美國以及澳大利亞等國家的移民數量削減一半。
Next month Mrs May plans to travel to India to promote investment opportunities.
下月梅計劃訪問印度以推介投資機遇。
Her hosts will remind her that if foreign companies are to flourish in Britain they need an immigration regime that allows them to attract the best and brightest — not just from India but from across the rest of Europe.
她的東道主將會提醒她，要想讓外國公司在英國蓬勃發展，就需要有能夠吸引最優秀、最聰明人才的移民機制——不僅來自印度，也來自歐洲國家。
Whether it is vehicles, banking, technology, pharmaceuticals or food processing, multinational supply chains depend on multinational labour forces.
無論是汽車、銀行、科技、製藥還是食品加工行業，跨國供應鏈有賴於跨國勞動力。
Free movement of people is more than one of the pillars of the EU’s single market.
人員的自由流動不只是歐盟單一市場的支柱之一，
It is a description of the nature of modern businesses.
它還是現代企業固有的特質之一。
That is why bilateral trade agreements almost invariably include provision for visa liberalisation.
這就是雙邊貿易協定幾乎無一例外包括免簽證內容的原因。
So even as it takes Britain towards a hard Brexit, the proposed immigration clampdown makes Britain a less attractive destination for the rest of the world — no small problem for a nation running a current account deficit of more than 5 per cent of its national income.
因此，擬議中的移民限制在把英國推向硬退歐的同時，也使英國對全球其他國家的吸引力下降，這對一個經常賬戶赤字與國民收入之比超過5%的國家來說，絕不是一個小問題。
The reaction of overseas investors in marking down the value of the pound has been entirely rational.
海外投資者調低英鎊價值的反應完全是理性的。
It is no more or less than a dispassionate judgment on Britain’s future economic prospects if it continues on its present course.
這是對英國未來經濟前景（如果英國繼續當前做法）作出的不帶感情色彩的評判。
