英國面臨200億歐元退歐賬單
Britain faces an EU divorce bill of up to Euro20bn, says a Financial Times analysis that shows that the bloc’s shared budget is emerging as one of the biggest political obstacles to a Brexit deal.
根據英國《金融時報》的一項分析，英國面臨最高達200億歐元的歐盟“離婚賬單”，這表明歐盟的共同預算正成爲達成一項英國退歐協議的最大政治障礙之一。
More than Euro300bn of shared payment liabilities will need to be settled in the divorce reckoning, according to EU accounts. It is a legacy of joint financial obligations stretching back decades that Brussels will insist the UK must honour.
根據歐盟賬目，逾3000億歐元的共同支付責任將需要在“離婚”清算中釐清。這些是幾十年遺留下來的共同財務義務，而布魯塞爾方面將堅持要求英國履約。
The sheer size of the upper estimate, which some EU officials reckon is too low, threatens to poison the break-up and derail a Brexit transition and trade deal, according to several senior European figures involved in the process.
據參與相關過程的多名歐洲資深人士介紹，上述估計上限（一些歐盟官員還認爲太低）的驚人數額，有可能對退歐過程造成負面影響，使英國退歐過渡和貿易協議難產。
The Euro20bn upper estimate covers Britain’s share of continuing multiyear liabilities, including unpaid budget appropriations of Euro241bn, pensions liabilities of Euro63.8bn, and future contractual and other spending commitments totalling about Euro32bn.
200億歐元的估計上限覆蓋多年持續支付責任（包括未繳付的預算撥款2410億歐元，退休金支付責任638億歐元，以及總計約320億歐元的未來合同和其他支出承諾）中英國應承擔的份額。
British Conservative MPs are also likely to react badly to news that UK taxpayers may have to pay billions to Europe as the price of Brexit. One minister said: “It will have to be explained very carefully, to explain what we are getting in return for market access.”
對於英國納稅人可能不得不爲退歐支付鉅額代價，英國保守黨議員也很可能覺得難以接受。一位部長級官員表示：“這一切必須得到非常仔細的解釋，解釋我們爲了獲得市場準入要付出什麼。”
Iain Begg, a London School of Economics expert on the EU budget who described the premise of the FT calculations as “completely sound”, said the issue was shaping up as a “battle royal”.
倫敦政治經濟學院(LSE)的歐盟預算專家伊恩•貝格(Iain Begg)表示，英國《金融時報》的計算中所採用的前提“完全合理”。他表示，這個問題正在變成一場“大爭戰”。
The analysis is a first attempt to fully quantify the UK’s legacy liabilities in the EU budget. To date, analyses of Brexit by bodies such as the UK Treasury have not taken full account of the cost of untangling EU budget commitments.
這是首次有人嘗試全面量化英國在歐盟預算中的遺留義務。此前英國財政部(UK Treasury)等機構對英國退歐的分析沒有充分考慮解決歐盟預算承諾的成本。
The precise withdrawal bill is impossible to calculate and will depend on a political deal. However, officials from four non-UK EU countries who reviewed the FT’s estimates said they reasonably represent the sums at stake.
誰也不可能算出精確的退歐賬單，它將取決於政治協議。然而，來自英國以外四個歐盟國家的官員們在審議了英國《金融時報》的估算後表示，它們合理代表了相關金額。
Some questioned certain FT assumptions that cut Britain’s exit bill, arguing Britain must make good on all its spending promises, not just to 2019 but to the end EU’s long term budget in 2020.
其中一些官員還質疑了英國《金融時報》的某些假設，這些假設削減了英國的退歐賬單；他們辯稱，英國必須履行其所有支出承諾，不僅是到2019年，而是到歐盟長期預算結束的2020年。
Brexit blows a hole in the EU’s budget with potentially far-reaching political consequences. It confronts Germany, Italy, France and other net contributors with the dilemma of filling any gap or scrapping programmes that Brussels and eastern and central European countries see as legally binding promises.
英國退歐使歐盟預算出現一個缺口，可能造成深遠的政治後果。它使德國、意大利、法國和其他淨捐款國面臨一個兩難：要麼填補任何缺口，要麼放棄一些計劃，而這些計劃被布魯塞爾方面和中、東歐國家視爲具有法律約束力的承諾。
Britain’s Euro20bn reckoning would cover only projects already approved within the remaining 27 EU members, not the future shortfall created after 2019 by Britain’s withdrawal from the long-term EU budget. It also excludes EU spending on UK organisations.
200億歐元的預估僅涵蓋其餘27個歐盟成員國已經批准的項目，而不包括在2019年以後由英國退出歐盟長期預算造成的未來短缺。其中也不包含歐盟對英國組織的支出。
Brexit campaigners claimed the UK could save some ￡350m a week by leaving the EU. But one former UK minister said: “We could actually end up paying more into the EU budget — that will be a big story in the next two years.”
英國退歐陣營人士曾聲稱，退出歐盟，英國每週可節省約3.5億英鎊。但英國一位前部長級官員表示：“我們實際上可能向歐盟預算繳付更多，這將是未來兩年的一個大故事。”
