中國二季度GDP數據背後的多重信息

HONG KONG — China on Friday reported its second-quarter economic growth figures. The numbers are among the world’s most closely watched because the country has been a major driver of global economic growth. But data from China are notoriously questionable. This is what you should take away from Friday’s results.

香港——上週五，中國通報了二季度的經濟增長數據。由於中國是全球經濟增長的主要推動力，它們是全世界最受關注的數據之一。但衆所周知，中國公佈的數據比較可疑。以下是讀者應該從週五公佈的數據背後看到的信息。

China to World: Everything Is O.K.

中國昭告世界：一切正常

China’s second-quarter gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent compared with a year ago.

中國二季度國內生產總值同比增長6.7%。

Friday’s figure suggests there’s no reason to panic. China’s economy is slowing but at a reasonable, steady pace well in line with Beijing’s expectations. It also matches the first-quarter number, and still came in at a pace that other countries envy.

週五公佈的數據顯示沒必要恐慌。中國的經濟在放緩，但速度合理且平穩，與北京的預期完全相符。這個數字與一季度持平，仍是令其他國家忌妒的增長速度。

Of course, China’s headline G.D.P. figure is one of the country’s least-trusted economic indicators. Li Keqiang, currently China’s premier, once famously described the figure as “man-made.” Some economists argue that the real rate of expansion is substantially lower than the reported figure.

當然，中國大事宣揚的GDP數據是最不值得信任的經濟指標之一。有名的事例是，現任總理李克強曾說GDP是“人造”數據。一些經濟專家稱，真實的增長速度遠低於公佈的數字。

Looking a bit closer, it’s clear that China’s slowdown is uneven. Some sectors, like mining and manufacturing, are being clobbered. Others, like e-commerce and nontraditional finance, are relative bright spots, while the housing market in some big cities is downright frothy.

稍微拉近距離觀察，中國的放緩顯然是不平衡的。一些領域遭受重創，如採礦和製造業。另一些行業，如電子商務和非傳統金融，相對而言是亮點，而一些大城市的房地產市場則充滿泡沫。

China’s Property Market Is Back — for Now

中國房地產市場復甦——暫時是這樣

China’s property investment in the first six months of the year rose 6.1 percent from a year ago, compared with 7 percent in the January-to-May period.

中國上半年的房地產市場投資同比增加6.1%，而1至5月份的增速爲7%。

That slight slowdown in June offers a reminder that new strength from China’s property sector has been pretty uneven.

6月的小幅回落是一個警告，表明在中國房地產市場重現的勢頭非常不均衡。

To be sure, the rebound in the property market is helping to prop up growth across the country. Roughly one-quarter of China’s economic activity is related to property. Last year a drop in the market hit China’s growth results, as investors worried about an oversupply of unsold homes, especially in smaller cities, and put their money into stocks instead.

房地產市場的復甦無疑正在幫助支撐全國的增長。中國大致四分之一的經濟活動和房地產有關。去年，房地產市場的衰退打擊了中國的增長數據，因爲投資者擔心未售房屋供大於求，特別是較小的城市，於是將資金投入股市。

Those worries appear to have been swept aside. Land purchases by developers have recovered as builders turn more optimistic. That is also good for local governments, which rely on revenue from land sales to fund a huge portion of their spending. New home sales and construction starts by developers are also rebounding strongly.

這些擔憂似乎已一掃而空。隨着建築商變得更加樂觀，開發商拿地熱情恢復。這也有利於地方政府，它們的開支有相當一部分來自賣地的收入。新住宅銷量和開發商的開工項目數量也強勢反彈。

The question is how sustainable this property recovery might be. Home prices in rich metropolises like Shenzhen and Shanghai are rising at rates reminiscent of dot-com stocks of another era. If the property market becomes just another Chinese bubble, it may not help offset the sharp slowdown among China’s factories.

問題是，房地產市場復甦的可持續性怎麼樣。深圳和上海等富裕城市的房價上漲速度，讓人想起了另一個時代的網絡公司股票。如果房地產市場成爲中國的另一個泡沫，那麼它可能無助於抵消中國衆多工廠的急劇放緩。

Factories Are Still Struggling

工廠依然舉步維艱

China’s June industrial production rose 6.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with 6 percent in May.

中國6月的工業生產同比增長6.2%，比5月份加快0.2個百分點。

Many traditional smokestack industries in China are still struggling, and that is dragging down the broader economy. Despite the slight rise in the June figure, industrial production data indicates that the manufacturing deceleration that China has seen for the last six years shows few signs of bottoming out.

中國的很多傳統重工業領域依然舉步維艱，這正在拖累整體經濟。儘管6月的數據出現了小幅上升，但工業生產數據表明，中國持續了六年的製造業減速仍看不到觸底的跡象。

China’s zombie factories — many state owned or state supported — continue to churn out goods that nobody buys. Weak overseas demand is another problem, and exports have continued to contract this year.

中國的殭屍工廠——很多屬於國有或獲得了國家的支持——依然在大量生產無人購買的商品。海外需求疲軟是另一個問題，今年出口依然在收縮。

There could be some light at the end of the tunnel. Factories would get a big lift if they could regain pricing power. Data on factory pricing shows that deflation appears to be easing at last after four tough years.

可能會有苦盡甘來的時候。如果能重獲定價權，工廠可能會得到極大的提振。工廠定價數據表明，在苦熬了四年後，通貨緊縮似乎終於開始減緩。

But the bigger hope is that consumer demand can replace traditional industry as the main driver of China’s economy.

但更大的希望是，消費需求能取代傳統工業，成爲中國經濟的主要推動力。

Are Shoppers Taking a Break?

消費者正在休息嗎？

China’s June retail sales rose 10.6 percent from a year ago.

6月，中國零售額同比增加10.6%。

At first glance, Chinese consumers do appear to be stepping up their game, as June’s figure was an improvement from May’s. But May’s figure was the weakest rate since the 2003 outbreak of SARS, once seasonal distortions like holidays are factored out.

乍一看，中國消費者的確表現得像是購買力在增加，因爲6月的數據同5月的相比有所改善。但一旦排除了節假日等季節性扭曲因素，5月的數據是自2003年急性非典型性肺炎(SARS)爆發以來最低的。

China bulls often point to the blistering pace of expansion of e-commerce as one of the country’s brightest growth spots. Online sales of goods rose 27 percent in the first six months, data released Friday showed. Still, that is down sharply from their growth rate a year ago China bears would argue that online shopping platforms are just cannibalizing sales from traditional department stores.

看好中國的人往往會把電子商務擴張迅速作爲中國最亮的增長點之一。週五公佈的數據顯示，上半年在線銷售額增加27%。但這依然遠低於一年前的增長速度。看空中國的人則認爲，在線購物平臺只是在蠶食傳統百貨商店的銷售額。

State Spending to the Rescue

政府開支救場

Government investment in fixed assets rose 23.5 percent in the first six months, while growth in private investment slowed to 2.8 percent.

上半年，政府固定資產投資增加23.5%，民間投資增速降至2.8%。

China has seen a dramatic falloff in investment by the private sector, previously China’s biggest engine of investment growth. That could have been hugely destabilizing for employment, wages and the economy as a whole. But the government has stepped in with gusto, ramping up investment by the state.

曾是中國最大的投資增長引擎的民間投資急劇下滑。這本來會嚴重影響就業、工資和整體經濟的穩定性。但政府大舉介入，增加政府投資。

There are signs that Beijing is getting less bang for its buck, however, as new infrastructure works and other projects fail to generate the same economic returns that they did in years past. What’s more, this investment surge is being bankrolled by an expanding credit binge. New bank lending has been growing gangbusters this year, raising the risk that China will face a painful day of reckoning further down the road.

然而，多個跡象表明，因爲新建的基礎設施工程和其他項目不能產生過去幾年那樣的經濟回報，北京正在收緊開支。此外，這種投資增長是受了一股愈演愈烈的信貸狂潮的推動。新增銀行貸款今年急速增加，讓人愈發擔心中國在未來會因此受到痛苦的懲罰。