中國第三季度GDP可能大幅減速

A reported export surge in September is failing to dispel the gloom suffusing forecasts for China’s third quarter GDP growth, which several economists predict to slump to a five-year low.

中國9月出口飆升的報道未能驅散圍繞第三季度國內生產總值(GDP)增長預測的悲觀氣氛——多位經濟學家預計，第三季度GDP增速將跌至5年來的最低水平。

One problem lies with the export numbers themselves, which raise suspicions that over-invoicing may once again be artificially inflating export statistics as Chinese smuggle hot money into the mainland from Hong Kong to take advantage of an appreciating renminbi.

一個問題與出口數據本身有關。人們懷疑，高開發票行爲可能再次人爲推高了出口數據，因爲一些中國人偷偷將熱錢從香港帶入內地，以利用人民幣升值趨勢。

“As in the past, over-invoicing is a key channel for hot money to enter China,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong. Shen noted that exports to Hong Kong rocketed by 34 per cent in September, the highest level seen since April 2013, when over-invoicing was considered to be rife.

瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)駐香港的亞洲首席經濟學家沈建光表示：“和以往一樣，高開出口發票是熱錢進入中國內地的主要途徑。”沈建光指出，9月內地對香港出口額飆升34%，爲2013年4月以來最高水平——據信當時高開出口發票行爲非常流行。

A survey of executives at 200 export companies, trading firms and shipping agents in China in September revealed that 54 per cent of respondents think over-invoicing of exports is resurgent, the highest levels since late 2013, according to China Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times.

根據英國《金融時報》旗下的研究性刊物《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)，9月針對200家出口企業、貿易公司和船運代理商的高管調研顯示，54%的受訪者認爲，高開出口發票現象再次升至2013年末以來最火熱的水平。

According to official statistics announced on Monday (see chart), exports rose 15.3 per cent year on year in September, up from 9.4 per cent in August. Imports, meanwhile, climbed 7.2 per cent, up from a 2.3 per cent decline in August. The trade surplus hit an official US$30.9bn, down sharply from US$49.8bn in August.

週一公佈的官方統計數據顯示（見右圖），9月出口同比增長15.3%，增幅高於8月的9.4%。進口增長7.2%，而8月下降2.3%。官方的貿易順差數字爲309億美元，較8月的498億美元大幅下降。

However, the resurgent export numbers were also at odds with what the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downward revision of its global economic growth forecast this year to 3.3 per cent from 3.4 per cent as it warned about weakness in Japan, Europe and Latin America.

中國出口數字飆升也與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)下調全球經濟增長預期的做法不一致。IMF警告，日本、歐洲和拉美各地經濟均顯露疲態，據此將今年全球增長預期從3.4%下調至3.3%。

In addition, China’s reported export resurgence does not correspond with various survey-based readings of export activity in September. The new export order sub-index of the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) languished at around 50 points in September, indicating an expectation of scant growth.

此外，中國出口回暖與9月各項與出口活動相關的調查數據不一致。官方的製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示，9月份新出口訂單分類指數徘徊在50點左右，這表明受訪者預期增長乏力。

GDP projections in Q3 could slump to a five-year low

預測：第三季度GDP增長率可能跌至5年來低點

Several economists are issuing projections that could signify China’s weakest quarter of GDP growth since the 6.6 per cent it posted in the first quarter of 2009, as sliding investment in property, waning manufacturing activity and dwindling credit growth combine. Third quarter GDP is expected to be announced next week.

根據多位經濟學家發佈的預測數字，隨着房地產投資下降、製造業活動減少和信貸增長萎縮，中國經濟可能出現自2009年第一季度以來最弱的季度增長。2009年第一季度GDP增長6.6%。預計中國將在下週發佈第三季度GDP數據。

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, reckons third quarter GDP will slide to 7.1 per cent from an official 7.5 per cent in the second quarter and 7.4 per cent in the first. Jasper McMahon of London-based Now-Casting Economics sees a growth rate of 6.8 per cent, based on a statistical model. Craig Botham, emerging markets strategist at Schroders, sees a 7.3 per cent expansion, with a risk that the actual figure could come in lower. Tang Jianwei, an economist at the Bank of Communications, also sees a 7.3 per cent rate.

瑞銀(UBS)中國首席經濟學家汪濤預計第三季度GDP增長率將降至7.1%。官方公佈的一季度和二季度GDP增速分別爲7.4%和7.5%。倫敦Now-Casting Economics的賈斯珀•麥克馬洪(Jasper McMahon)使用一個統計模型測算，估計增長率爲6.8%。施羅德(Schroders)新興市場策略家克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)預計增長率爲7.3%，並認爲實際數據可能更低。交通銀行(Bank of Communications)經濟學家唐建偉也預計增長率爲7.3%。

Such projections come after several signs that growth in September was laclustre, with a series of China Confidential indicators on discretionary spending, labour demand by companies, export growth and freight volumes shipped either falling in the month or remaining at depresssed levels (see chart).

在這些經濟學家發佈預測之前，已有多個跡象顯示9月份增長低迷。《中國投資參考》編制的可支配支出指數、企業用工需求、出口增長和貨運量等一系列指標在當月不是下降，就是保持低迷（見下圖）。

Such trends do not augur well for the rest of the year or 2015. “My feeling is that the growth target will be lowered again next year as they must have realised by now that it is hard to hit 7.5 per cent GDP growth without resorting to a stimulus that feeds their economic frailties,” said Craig Botham at Schroders.

此類趨勢對今年剩餘時間及2015年不是好兆頭。施羅德的克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)表示：“我預感中國明年將再次下調增長目標，因爲他們現在必定已經意識到，如果不採取刺激措施解決經濟疲弱問題，就很難實現7.5%的增長。”

Botham added that Beijing was likely to adopt a “hard floor” for growth in 2015 of around 6.5 per cent but attempt to reach around 7 per cent. He added that China was unlikely this year to unleash a general stimulus measure by loosening credit and more likely to concentrate on targeted measures to boost affordable housing projects, lending by the larger banks, the provision of capital to small and medium enterprises and various infrastructure projects.

博瑟姆補充稱，北京方面很可能將2015年增長率“底線”定在6.5%左右，但會爭取達到7%左右。他說，中國今年內不太可能採取放鬆信貸之類的全面刺激措施，而是更可能着眼於有針對性的措施，如增加保障房項目，促進各大銀行放貸，向中小企業提供資金以及上馬某些基礎設施項目。