中國經濟數據迷霧重重 專家怎麼看

BEIJING — With economic growth slowing and China’s stock markets in turmoil, the Communist Party and central government are starting to restrict the flow of economic information and data to control the narrative. That runs counter to the needs of global investors and economists, who had been hoping that China would continue becoming more transparent with such information.

北京——隨着經濟增長放緩、中國股市處於動盪之中，中國共產黨和中央政府正在開始用限制經濟信息和數據的流動來控制話語權。這種做法與全球投資者和經濟學家所需要的背道而馳，他們一直在希望，中國在這些信息上會繼續變得更加透明。

In 2007, Li Keqiang, who has since become China’s premier, told the United States ambassador in Beijing about the unreliability of official economic growth data. Among people tracking the Chinese economy, that kind of doubt is likely to increase. The party is becoming more sensitive as to how data shapes global perceptions of the economy.

2007年，後來出任中國總理的李克強曾在北京對美國駐華大使說官方經濟增長數據不可靠。在跟蹤中國經濟的人們中，對經濟數據的懷疑很可能會增加。共產黨正在對數據如何塑造全球對中國經濟的認識變得更敏感。

The New York Times has found prominent recent cases of data and information censorship. Last year, officials at China’s National Bureau of Statistics ordered Markit Economics, a British financial information and services company, and Caixin Media Group, based in Beijing, to end a monthly release of preliminary survey results of Chinese factories. Because traders used the number, called the flash P.M.I., the data affected markets.

《紐約時報》已發現了幾起最近的數據和信息審查的突出案例。去年，中國國家統計局官員曾命令英國金融信息和服務公司Markit Economics和總部設在北京的財新傳媒集團，停止每月發佈中國工廠調查的初步結果。因爲交易者使用這個被稱作PMI預覽指數的數據，而這個數據對股市有影響。

Here are comments from six experts on the quality and official control of Chinese economic data:

以下是六位專家對中國經濟數據質量及官方控制問題的意見：

Ye Tan, independent economist based in Shanghai

葉檀，駐上海獨立經濟學家

We know that every institution or agency has its own approach. So we have a lot of data, but it’s kind of messy.

我們知道，每個機構或部門都有自己的方法。所以，我們有大量的數據，但這些數據很亂。

Some economic data like income and unemployment is indeed sensitive in China. But the authorities will have no choice but to release them, or else they will be creating a situation where a blind man is trying to feel an elephant.

像收入和失業率這些經濟數據在中國確實很敏感。不過，當局需要發佈這些數據，別無選擇，否則他們會製造一種盲人摸象的局面。

Christopher Balding, associate professor at Peking University HSBC Business School

克里斯托弗·鮑爾丁(Christopher Balding)，北京大學匯豐商學院副教授

Many parts of Chinese data are riddles inside enigmas, so I’ve learned to never take anything as final.

中國數據的許多部分是謎中之謎，所以我學會了從不把任何東西當作最終結果。

Chinese data even among specialists are hazy and require time just sorting through the definitions and changes.

即使對專家們來說，中國的數據也是模糊的，僅僅把定義和變化搞清楚就需要大量的時間。

I don’t think anyone has any real illusions that the economy is growing at 7 percent. Only a couple of people would write that with a straight face anymore. I think the party is becoming a lot more sensitive to that.

我認爲沒有任何人對經濟以7％的速度增長抱有任何真正的幻想。只有少數人會繃着臉繼續這樣寫。我認爲共產黨對這一點變得更加敏感了。

The People’s Bank of China has to learn how to interact with the markets rather than just repeating “everything is fine,” because people are watching a lot closer than they used to.

中國人民銀行必須學會如何與市場互動，而不是不斷地重複“一切都好”，因爲人們正在更近的距離上觀察，比以前的近多了。

China used to publish widespread aggregate employment levels throughout secondary industry [the manufacture of finished products]. In 2013, they stopped publishing the aggregate number of employed persons in these industries. They just started releasing a couple of aggregate employment levels for small numbers of subsectors. It’s very limited, but it’s a start.

中國曾發佈整個第二產業（商品製造業）範圍廣泛的總體就業水平數據。2013年，政府停止了發佈在這些行業中就業人員的總數。最近纔剛開始發佈少量細分行業的總體就業水平。儘管十分有限，但是一個開端。

They haven’t published wage data since the end of 2014.

政府自2014年底以來一直都沒有公佈過工資數據。

Yuan Gangming, researcher at the Center for China in the World Economy, Tsinghua University

袁鋼明，清華大學中國與世界經濟研究中心研究員

The National Bureau of Statistics is not as unreliable as it used to be. I’ve been following Chinese economic data for quite some time. In the past, the forgery of data was common. In 1998, during the Asia financial crisis, some data like industrial output and electricity were not made available to the public.

國家統計局並不像以前那樣不可靠。我關注中國經濟數據有一段時間了。在過去，僞造數據的情況很常見。1998年亞洲金融危機期間，沒有提供給公衆像工業產出和用電量這樣的數據。

Over all, the National Bureau of Statistics is a lot more reliable than some local statistics bureaus.

總的來說，國家統計局比一些地方上的統計局要可靠得多。

Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research

楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)，美奇金(J Capital Research)共同創始人

Senior officials require that the various institutions that collect the data be in on the original sources and ask those sources to change the data when needed.

高級官員要求收集數據的不同機構知道原始數據的來源，並在有必要時，要求這些來源更改數據。

There’s a small group at the National Bureau of Statistics that takes in the provincial numbers for gross domestic product, and when these conflict with national numbers, they make a judgment call.

國家統計局有一個從各省收集國內生產總值數據的小組，當各省的數字與國家的數字有衝突時，他們要做出自己的判斷。

Data disappears when it becomes negative. That’s happened in a lot of series. The Ministry of Commerce has a series on retail enterprises and retail sales of various products. Those series stop when the numbers get bad.

如果數據變成負值的話，就會消失。這在很多數據序列都發生過。商務部有零售企業及各種商品的零售銷售額的序列。如果一些數字不好的話，這些序列就會停下來。

I’ve been trying to deal with household income data. That’s frustrating. They report that in different ways all the time, so the numbers aren’t comparable.

我一直在試圖處理家庭收入數據。但很令人沮喪。他們總是以不同的方式發佈數字，所以這些數字沒有可比性。

The most egregious faking is in services and job creation.

最令人震驚的作假是在服務業和創造就業機會的數字上。

For steel numbers, they report the steel output of a select number of mills. They randomly add different companies to the sample that had never been there before. We found that happening in 2014. They added all these phantom companies that nobody had heard of before. The companies report a raw number of tons of steel produced. There were 85 companies. Then suddenly there were 95 companies. They don’t tell you about this change upfront. They’ll only tell you if you ask them.

至於鋼產量的數據，他們報告的是有選擇的幾家鋼廠的鋼產量。他們在樣本中隨便加入從來都不存在的其他公司。我們在2014年發現了這個問題。他們加進去了所有這些以前沒有人聽說過的幽靈公司。每家公司報上來的是鋼產量的原始噸數。有85家公司報了數據。然後突然變成了95家公司。他們不把這個變化坦率地告訴你。只是在你問的時候，他們才告訴你。

On retail data, they change the companies that are the key enterprises. They don’t consistently define key enterprises. Usually you can find the definitions on the National Bureau of Statistics website. But those change. This year, a key enterprise might be defined as over 25 million renminbi per year in revenue.

在零售數據方面，他們會對哪些公司屬於重點企業進行修改。他們對重點企業的定義缺乏連貫性。通常你可以在國家統計局的網站上找到定義，但這個定義是會變化的。今年，重點企業可能會被定義爲每年營收超過2500萬元人民幣的企業。

On housing price data, the localities change different districts of their cities for the basis of comparison. If they think their prices are too high, they’ll choose a district of the city that has a high average price. Then they’ll use that as the basis of comparison. If you want low year-on-year growth, you need a high basis of comparison. If you want growth to look high, take down the basis of comparison.

在房價數據上，各地會用市內不同的區域作爲比較基礎。如果他們認爲本市房價太高，就會選擇均價較高的一個區，把它作爲比較的基礎。如果你想讓同比增長率看起來比較低，就需要用高一些的比較基礎。如果你想讓增長率看起來高一些，就要把比較的基礎放低一些。

Trucking is a very fragmented world in China. There are a zillion tiny companies that only weigh one truck or two trucks. There are some stations that weigh trucks. But it’s hard for me to believe that anyone reports accurate numbers on these trucks.

在中國，卡車運載量的數據非常零碎。無數個微型公司只對一、兩輛卡車進行稱重。有一些站點會對卡車稱重。但是在我看來，任何人統計的卡車載重數字，其準確度都很難相信。

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics

馬克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)，凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家

Unfortunately, it looks increasingly likely that the government will continue to announce G.D.P. growth targets. That will include a target of average growth over the five-year period. The government appears to view targets as essential for policy making. It is unlikely that the National Bureau of Statistics would publish numbers lower than the target number.

糟糕的是，中國政府繼續發佈GDP增長目標的可能性似乎提高了。這包括五年內的平均增長目標。政府似乎把制定目標看成是政策制定中至關重要的一環。國家統計局不太可能公佈低於目標的數字。

China has set G.D.P. growth targets for a long time. For most of the past 20 years, it really didn’t matter that much because the economy was growing much faster than the targets. It has only really become a problem as growth has slowed.

中國設定GDP增長目標已經有很長一段時間了。在過去20年裏的大多數時候，這都不是太礙事，因爲經濟的增長速度比目標高得多。只有在增長有所放緩的時候，它才真正成爲了問題。

There’s also much more scrutiny on policy makers for their economic policy making. It wasn’t that long ago that the world felt the Chinese government could do no wrong when it came to managing their economy. But there’s a lot more skepticism now both in China and abroad.

決策者對經濟政策的制定也受到了遠更嚴格的審視。不久之前，世界還覺得中國政府在管理本國經濟方面不會出錯。但現在，無論國內還是國外，人們的懷疑都大大加劇了。

We used to have debates with clients on whether growth was as slow as what our proxy measures suggested. In the past year or so, I haven’t had anyone dispute that growth is significantly lower than official figures. Most investors take it as a given that the official figures are overstating China’s growth.

之前，對於中國經濟增長是否像我們的代理數據顯示的那樣緩慢，我們常常與客戶發生爭論。但在過去一年左右的時間裏，還沒有任何人和我爭論，中國經濟增長是否比官方數字低很多。多數投資者都把中國官方誇大經濟增長看成了一種常態。

The debate is over the quality of the information. It’s not hard to find individual data series that will back any given argument. You have to look at a broad span of data.

對於信息質量的爭論已經結束了。如果只看單個數據序列，很容易佐證任何的論點。一定要看比較廣泛的數據。

Fred Hu, founding partner of Primavera Capital Group

胡祖六(Fred Hu)，春華資本集團(Primavera Capital Group)創始合夥人

They have over time really made efforts to improve the quality and reliability of economic data, but it’s obviously still a work in progress. I would say economic data, with a few exceptions, are released to the public on a regular basis.

長期以來，他們確實在努力提高經濟數據的質量和可靠性，但很顯然，這方面還需更多的努力。我想說，中國定期向公衆發佈了經濟數據，只有少數例外。

My country still doesn’t permit freedom of speech and freedom of information. Most public discussions are severely restricted or penalized. Again, in the economic arena, it has been a notable exception.

我國仍然沒有言論和信息自由。大多數公開討論都受到了嚴格限制，甚至會遭受懲處。但經濟領域卻是一個明顯的例外。

In social sciences, economists tend to have the biggest degree of freedom in discussing economic issues or policy issues, and economists can be highly critical of government policies without undue personal consequences.

在社會科學領域，經濟學家在討論經濟或政策問題時，往往擁有最高的自由度。經濟學家對政府的政策可能會有很強的批判性，而個人不會承擔太大的後果。