戶籍制度改革是重振中國經濟的關鍵
As China's growth slows toward a 20-year low, leaders are searching for a way to revive the economy's flagging fortunes. The suggestion from some of China's top policy wonks: reform the hukou system.
在中國經濟增速滑向20年低點之際，中國領導人正在尋找重振經濟的方式。中國一些高級政策專家給出的建議是：改革戶籍制度。That was the message that came through loud and clear from a meeting of top academics and policy advisers at a conference hosted by the government's Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Friday.
這是上週五中國社會科學院主辦的由高級學者和決策者參加的會議清晰傳達出的信息。China's hukou system -- a social management system that ties benefits like health care and pensions to a person's place of birth -- prevents 200 million-plus migrant workers from fully participating in the labor market, said Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
中國社科院人口與勞動經濟研究所所長蔡昉說，中國戶籍制度使2億多農民工無法全部進入勞動力市場參與就業。中國戶籍制度是一個社會管理體系，將醫療和養老等福利與居民出生地聯繫在一起。
'Migrant workers don't have the same benefits as the urban residents,' Mr. Cai said at the economic forum in Beijing, and 'that has significantly limited their participation in the labor market.' That is because without access to health care, pensions or education for their children in their host city, migrants must return to their hometowns to settle down and raise a family.
蔡昉在這次於北京舉行的經濟論壇上說，農民工無法享受和城鎮居民一樣的福利，這在很大程度上限制了他們的勞動力市場參與率。他們無法在城市享受醫療、養老或子女教育等福利，所以最後不得不返回家鄉來養家餬口。Reforms that allow migrants to tap urban benefits could boost the size of the labor force, supporting China's growth, Mr. Cai said. If the labor participation rate -- economist speak for the share of the working-age population that is actually working -- rises by one percentage point each year from 2011 to 2020, it would lift China's economic growth potential by 0.88 percentage point each year, he added.
蔡昉說，允許農民工享受城市福利的改革可以擴大勞動力規模，進而支持中國經濟增長。他還說，如果勞動參與率從2011年到2020年每年上升一個百分點，則每年可能會給中國經濟增速帶來0.88個百分點的提振。經濟學家將就業年齡人口中實際參與工作的人數佔總人數的比例稱爲勞動參與率。And that reform might not cost as much as some fear. The average cost for a migrant worker to become a urban resident is about 2,500 yuan ($409) each year, and the total fiscal costs over the 15 years between 2015 and 2030 are estimated 48% of the nation's total fiscal revenue in 2012, Kam Wing Chan, a professor from the University of Washington, said at the CASS event.
戶籍制度改革成本可能沒有一些人擔憂的那麼高。華盛頓大學(University of Washington)教授陳金永(Kam Wing Chan)在此次會議上說，每年每個農民工成爲城市居民的平均成本是人民幣2,500元左右，估計2015年至2030年這15年的總財政成本佔中國2012年財政總收入的48%。'Plus, at the beginning of the transition, those workers are net contributors to the economy, just like the undocumented immigrants in the U.S.,' Mr. Chan said, noting that because migrants are typically young and without children, the costs of providing them health care, pensions and education is relatively low.
陳金永說，更重要的是，在農民工市民化的初期，這些農民工對經濟的貢獻大於索取，正如美國的非法移民一樣，因爲他們多爲無子女的年輕勞動力，城市爲其提供的醫療、養老、教育成本也會相對較低。Still, to make it work Beijing needs to give local governments more power to raise taxes, and the center needs to share more obligations of providing public services. One proposal from He Yupeng, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council: The central government could cover the costs of interprovincial migration, while local governments could take care of migrant workers who move within the provinces.
然而，爲了使改革能順利進行，中國政府需要給予地方政府更多權利來增稅，以及分擔更多的提供公共服務的成本。中國國務院發展研究中心農村經濟研究部研究員何宇鵬給出的一個建議是，中央政府可以承擔省際人口遷移的成本，地方政府可以承擔省內農民工遷移的成本。'What's happening now is the cities that have opened up the hukou are those nobody wants to go to, and the cities that are slow in loosening their grip on hukou control are those with job opportunities,' Mr. He said. If the central government stepped up to help cover the costs, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai might be more willing to open their doors.
何宇鵬說，現在的情況是放開戶籍限制的城市沒人願意去，而不放開的往往是那些就業機會集中的地區。如果中央政府承擔更多的公共服務開支，北京和上海等大城市可能更願意放開戶籍限制。
