匯豐爲何不把總部遷往香港
There are many reasons HSBC decided to keep its headquarters in London and most of them have to do with the evolving circumstances in China. Much has changed there since the bank announced it was reviewing whether to return to its roots in China and Hong Kong.
匯豐(HSBC)決定把總部留在倫敦的原因很多，其中多數原因必然涉及中國變化中的現實。自該行宣佈正在審議是否重返其植根於的中國內地和香港以來，很多事情發生了變化。
For a start, the regulatory risk has soared as local and foreign investors have lost their faith in the government and regulators’ ability to manage the markets and the currency. That matters to HSBC because if it had shifted back to Hong Kong, the People’s Bank of China would have been in effect its regulator and certainly its lender of last resort.
首先，監管風險已經飆升，本土和外國投資者對中國政府和監管機構管理好市場和人民幣匯率的能力失去了信心。這對匯豐很重要，因爲如果該行遷回香港，中國人民銀行(PBoC)實際上將是它的監管機構，同時必定是它的最後貸款人。
For the past two decades, as China’s manufacturing and its export machine prospered, it made sense for HSBC to think the mainland would contribute to an ever rising share of its profits. No bank was in a better position to mediate those flows and finance that trade.
過去20年期間，隨着中國製造業和出口機器蒸蒸日上，匯豐有理由認爲中國內地將爲其貢獻越來越高的盈利份額。在處理交易和提供貿易融資方面，沒有一家銀行處於比它更爲有利的地位。
At the same time HSBC sought to maximise its options by taking stakes in a variety of Chinese financial institutions. These included a 20 per cent stake in Bank of Communications, and smaller stakes in insurer Ping An, which has its headquarters across the border in booming Shenzhen, and Bank of Shanghai. HSBC’s chief executive Stuart Gulliver — whose heart is in Hong Kong even as his head remains in London — spoke of opening 800 branches across China if he was not able to acquire a much bigger stake in BoCom.
與此同時，匯豐尋求通過入股中國的各類金融機構，最大化自己的選項。這些交易包括收購交通銀行(BoCom) 20%股份，以及保險公司中國平安(Ping An)和上海銀行(Bank of Shanghai)的較小股份；平安的總部位於毗鄰香港的繁華城市深圳。匯豐首席執行官歐智華(Stuart Gulliver)對香港情有獨鍾，即便理智要求他紮根倫敦。他曾談到，即使無法購得交行的更大股份，匯豐也將在中國各地開設800家網點。
Now though, the opportunity seems both smaller and less seductive. Growth is slowing, albeit off a huge base. The sources of growth are also changing; in future China will be more domestically driven. There will be less business for a foreign bank — and Beijing will always regard HSBC as a foreign bank.
但現在，中國的機遇看上去更小，也不再那麼誘人。增長正在放緩——儘管是從較高的基數。增長的來源也在發生變化；未來中國經濟將在更大程度上由國內驅動。外資銀行的業務將會更少，而北京方面將永遠把匯豐視爲一家外資銀行。
Moreover, this is no time to be aggressively expanding in China. Mr Gulliver is an astute risk manager, who was running Asian markets during the Asian financial crisis from Hong Kong. For more than two years he has been bracing for a slowdown in China, reducing his counterparty risk with smaller financial institutions and dealing only with the most blue-chip borrowers. Although the announcement of the decision to stay in London spoke of the “particular emphasis” HSBC is putting on investing further in the Pearl River Delta”, it neglected to say that most of that is in financing HSBC’s Hong Kong corporate clients as they go across the border.
此外，現在不是在中國大舉擴張的合適時機。歐智華是一個精明的風險管理者；當年亞洲金融危機期間，他曾坐鎮香港，操盤亞洲各地市場。最近兩年多來，他一直在爲中國增長放緩做準備，降低對較小金融機構的交易對手風險，並且只與最可靠的藍籌股借款人打交道。雖然匯豐在宣佈決定留在倫敦的聲明中談到“特別注重”在珠三角進一步投資，但該行沒有說的是，這些投資大部分將是爲匯豐的香港企業客戶提供融資，幫助他們在珠三角做生意。
Both Mr Gulliver and his board recognise that this is a moment that calls for greater caution. No wonder the vote in favour of London was unanimous.
歐智華和匯豐董事會都認識到，現在是需要更加謹慎的時刻。難怪他們一致支持留在倫敦。
