大陸游客減少赴港購物 香港零售商受挫
Tough times could get tougher for Hong Kong's luxury retailers.
香港奢侈品零售商的日子可能會難上加難。The financial center and shopping Mecca reported May retail sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier, and many point the finger at mainland Chinese tourists. It's the fourth straight month of declines, after an uninterrupted streak of growth since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. One could see false hope that the decline was less severe in May than the month before. It's likely to get worse.
作爲金融中心和購物天堂，香港5月份零售額較上年同期下降了4.1%，許多人將原因歸於中國大陸游客。這是香港零售額連續第四個月下滑，此前，2009年全球金融危機餘波後香港零售額曾持續增長。5月份零售額降幅低於4月份，這或許會給人們一種虛假的希望，而實際上香港的零售業狀況可能會進一步惡化。A series of confrontations in recent months between mainlanders and Hong Kong residents received wide media attention in China. Many Hong Kong residents view the crowds of shopping mainlanders as uncouth and resent their presence as a sign of Beijing's growing influence on the self-governing city's affairs.
近月來，大陸游客與香港市民之間發生的一系列衝突受到中國媒體的廣泛關注。許多香港市民認爲赴港購物的大陸游客素質低，而且認爲他們的到來是北京對香港事務影響力越來越大的一種跡象，並因此而感到厭惡。
On Tuesday, Hongkongers upset with Beijing marked the anniversary of the territory's handover from British control with the biggest pro-democracy demonstrations in a decade.
週二，對北京不滿的香港人在香港迴歸週年紀念日這天舉行了十年來規模最大的一次親民主示威遊行。In fact, mainlanders aren't staying away--yet. They are just spending less. For the month of May as a whole arrivals from China continued to rise, albeit at a slowed-down pace of 13%, compared with 21% growth in May of 2013. This is partly driven by the ongoing corruption crackdown in China that has made ostentatious displays of wealth and bribery disguised as gift giving lose favor. Sales of 'jewelry, watches, clocks and valuable gifts' fell by 24.5% from a year earlier in May.
事實上，大陸游客並未離開香港，他們只是減少了在港支出。5月份到港大陸游客數量繼續上升，只是升幅由上年同期的21%放緩至13%。造成這一現象的部分原因是，中國當前的反腐運動使得浮誇的炫富和送禮賄賂行爲得到遏制。5月份，香港的珠寶、手錶、時鐘和貴重禮品的銷售額較上年同期下降24.5%。Yet an outright decline in Chinese tourists could yet be in the cards. In a bow to public opinion, Hong Kong is considering measures to restrict the number of tourist arrivals by up to 20%. Barclays estimates such a reduction could cut 2014 earnings by 18% at cosmetics retailer Sa Sa International, by 9% and 16% respectively at jewelry merchants Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook, and by 19% at Trinity Limited, owner of clothing-store brands Kent & Curwen and Cerruti 1881.
不過，赴港大陸游客數量仍有可能出現大幅下滑。迫於民意壓力，香港正考慮採取措施將赴港遊客數量削減至多20%。巴克萊(Barclays)預計，受這一舉措影響，化妝品零售商莎莎國際(Sa Sa International) 2014年利潤或下降18%，珠寶專賣店周大福(Chow Tai Fook)和六福集團(Luk Fook)的利潤或分別下降9%和16%，服裝品牌肯迪文(Kent & Curwen)和切瑞蒂1881 (Cerruti 1881)的所有者利邦控股有限公司(Trinity Ltd.)的利潤將下降19%。Any changes require cooperation between Hong Kong and Chinese authorities, as mainlanders gain visas to the city by applying with local government bureaus. While a 20% cut might prove too drastic, Beijing and Hong Kong could settle on still substantial cuts in a bid to reduce tensions.
由於大陸游客是通過向當地政府部門申請獲得赴港通行證，因此，任何限制大陸游客數量的措施都需要香港與大陸有關部門的合作。雖然20%的削減幅度可能過大，但北京和香港方面仍有望就大幅削減遊客數量達成一致，以緩解雙方的緊張關係。Shares in Hong Kong retailers have already taken a beating this year, but given all that could still go wrong, investors are better off shopping for bargains elsewhere.
今年以來，香港零售商的股票已受到衝擊，但鑑於行情仍可能變糟，投資者們最好到其他地方尋找便宜貨。
