中國經濟放緩已影響消費者支出

Until the Chinese stock market crashed in June, Shanghai stockbroker Wang Yu had been planning to spend Rmb60,000 ($9,400) on a diamond engagement ring. When it came time to propose in October, he offered a Rmb4,000 gold ring instead.

在中國股市6月暴跌之前，上海的證券經紀人王宇（音譯）一直打算花6萬元人民幣（合9400美元）購買一枚鑽石訂婚戒指。但到了10月份求婚的時候，他拿出了一枚價值4000元人民幣的金戒指。

Mr Wang’s tempered extravagance is one example of how Shanghai’s consumers may be cutting back in the face of economic uncertainty, with implications for the broader Chinese rebalancing story.

王宇收斂了鋪張行爲，這是上海消費者在面對不明朗的經濟前景時可能縮減開支的一個例子，對更廣泛的中國經濟再平衡之說具有含義。

Despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth and the stock market crash, consumers in China’s commercial capital have proven resilient, according to FT Confidential Research, a research service from the Financial Times. A survey of consumers across the city found they spent an average Rmb4,959 a month over the past 12 months, compared with Rmb1,737 across urban areas nationwide. They increasingly favour a quality meal and foreign goods, while nearly 70 per cent said they travelled abroad during the past 12 months.

根據英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)，儘管中國經濟增長大幅放緩，股市暴跌，事實證明中國商業首都上海的消費者們依然保持活力。一項覆蓋全市的消費者調查發現，過去12個月中，他們每個月平均支出4959元人民幣，而全國城市地區的平均值爲1737元人民幣。上海消費者日益青睞優質膳食和外國產品，近70%的人表示他們在過去12個月中曾出過國。

But cracks are appearing in the Shanghai consumer story. Spending on luxury goods, the most conspicuous symbol of Shanghainese consumption, may be on the wane. While 53.2 per cent of respondents said they intend to increase spending on luxury goods in the coming 12 months, the average intended spend fell to Rmb6,454 from Rmb7,596 in the previous 12 months.

但上海消費者的故事正在出現裂痕。熱愛購買奢侈品是上海人最顯著的消費特徵，但他們在奢侈品上的支出或許正在逐漸減少。儘管53.2%的受訪者聲稱他們打算在未來12個月增加在奢侈品上的支出，預期支出的平均值從之前12個月的7596元人民幣降至6454元人民幣。

Furthermore, just 18.7 per cent said they intend to increase spending in the coming 12 months. Among wealthy residents, 60 per cent said they intend to hold spending steady against a citywide average of 58.4 per cent.

此外，僅有18.7%的受訪者說他們打算在未來12個月增加支出。在富裕的居民中，60%的人聲稱他們打算保持支出穩定不變，而全市消費者的這個比例爲58.4%。

Their caution is understandable: 43.4 per cent of respondents said they expect the economy to worsen in the coming 12 months, while only 36.7 per cent said conditions will improve.

他們的謹慎是可以理解的：43.4%的受訪者表示他們預計經濟在未來12個月將惡化，僅有36.7%的受訪者認爲會好轉。

Shanghai’s citizens may still be spending, and the survey found — crucially — that incomes are still rising. But these notes of caution are yet more correctives to the widespread notion that the Chinese consumer will swing to the rescue of the national economy as the traditional drivers of growth slow.

上海市民或許還將繼續支出，該調查也發現了關鍵的一點——他們的收入還在上升。但是，這種謹慎的意味更加糾正了一個普遍觀念，即中國消費者將在傳統增長引擎放緩的時候拯救國民經濟。

The established narrative sees a relatively smooth rebalancing away from capital intensive industries as consumer spending takes up the slack.

已經被接受的說法是，中國經濟正在經歷相對平穩的再平衡，逐漸減少對資本密集型行業的依賴，而消費者支出將填補空缺。

But this gauge of Shanghai consumer habits is among a growing pile of data that indicate the slowdown in traditional industries is weighing on Chinese consumer spending, regardless of what is shown by the much-trumpeted rise in the official monthly retail sales indicator.

然而這項對上海消費者消費習慣的調查，以及越來越多的相關數據表明，不管大肆宣傳的官方月度零售銷售指標上升表明了什麼，傳統行業的放緩正在對中國的消費者支出產生影響。

Far from filling the breach and propping up growth, the Chinese consumer’s willingness to spend will continue to deteriorate until sectors such as construction come back.

中國消費者還遠遠談不上填補缺口和支撐增長，他們的支出意願將持續減弱，直到建築業等行業復甦。

The future Mrs Wang has become an unwitting victim of the economic slowdown.

未來的王太太在不知不覺中成爲了經濟放緩的受害者。