關注社會:中國經濟放緩利於再平衡

Few temples to conspicuous consumption are as quirky as the Florentia Village, a sprawling “authentic Italian luxury outlet centre” on the outskirts of China’s northern city of Tianjin that boasts its own ersatz Colosseum.
很少有哪個“炫耀性消費”場所能像佛羅倫薩小鎮(Florentia Village)一樣給人帶來驚奇。佛羅倫薩小鎮地處中國北方城市天津市的郊外，是一處佔地甚廣“純正意大利風格的名品奧特萊斯”，有仿建的鬥獸場。
Even on a weekday afternoon, hundreds of shoppers stroll the Italianate lanes of the 60,000m2 outdoor complex with their rows of discount brand outlets selling everything from Prada bags to Puma shoes.
即便是工作日的下午，也有成百上千的購物者在這個小鎮充滿意大利風情的街道上溜達。佛羅倫薩小鎮的建築面積爲6萬平方米，品牌折扣商店林立，各色名品琳琅滿目，從普拉達(Prada)揹包到彪馬(Puma)鞋應有盡有。
The “village” is just one of a host of new shopping opportunities that have sprung up across China in recent years, testament to the fast-growing power of the nation’s consumers.
這個“小鎮”只是中國近年來涌現的大量購物場所之一，它是中國消費者快速崛起的標誌。
Yet with China’s economy slowing – to a relatively modest annual rate of 8.1 per cent growth in the first quarter – some observers fret that consumption could be faltering. Retail spending in April was weaker than expected. And while Wen Jiabao, the premier, last week signalled action to shore up growth, the government’s policy focus looks set to be on promoting investment rather than consumption.
但隨着中國經濟放緩——今年第一季度增長年率降至相對溫和的8.1%——有些觀察人士擔心，消費增長可能停滯。4月零售額就低於預期。儘管中國總理溫家寶上週發出了刺激增長的信號，但中國政府的政策重心似乎將落在刺激投資而不是刺激消費上。
Not everyone is worried. Analysts at Jefferies say state data show China’s retail sector is set to rebound, creating buying opportunities for stock investors. “Our recent channel checks with retailers and retail associations also suggest that retail sales are seeing a gradual recovery,” they said in a report released on Thursday.
並非所有人都感到擔憂。傑富瑞(Jefferies)分析師表示，官方數據顯示，中國零售行業即將反彈，爲股市投資者創造買入機會。他們在上週四發佈的一份報告中稱，“近來我們對零售商和零售商協會的渠道調查也表明，零售銷售額正在逐步回升。”
Staff at outlets in Florentia Village, too, insist business is good at the complex, which opened in January 2011.
佛羅倫薩小鎮商鋪工作人員也表示，目前生意很好。該購物廣場是2011年1月開業的。
On Friday Wang Yongqiang and Tang Ying, a young couple, were delighted to snap up his-and-hers Levi’s at what Ms Tang described as a good discount to prices in central Tianjin. “We do quite a lot of shopping,” Ms Tang says.
上週五，年輕夫婦王永強（音）和唐穎（音）在這裏買了不少Levi's品牌的牛仔服。他們很高興，唐穎表示，這裏的價格比起天津市中心有很大的折扣，“我們會買很多東西。”
With household incomes still rising, consumption growth is unlikely to fall dramatically, says Andrew Batson, research director at GK Dragonomics.
龍洲經訊(GK Dragonomics)研究主任白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示，由於家庭收入仍在增長，消費增長不大可能出現大幅下滑。
Indeed, Mr Batson suggests the present slowdown could promote a much-heralded rebalancing of China’s economy away from reliance on increasingly unproductive investment to a healthier consumption-driven model.
白安儒表示，實際上，當前的放緩可能有利於促進中國經濟再平衡，也就是從依賴於投資這種日益無效的模式，轉向更健康的消費驅動型增長模式。

While the government has long talked of such a shift, the proportion of gross domestic product accounted for by investment actually soared to 46 per cent in 2010, while household consumption’s share of GDP slumped to just 35 per cent.
儘管中國政府早就在談論轉型，但2010年投資佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例仍上升至46%，而家庭消費在GDP中的佔比卻下滑至爲35%。
This is not because people are failing to spend more – at nearly 8 per cent, Chinese household consumption growth far outstripped the average for developing Asia last decade – but simply because it could not keep pace with GDP.
這並非由於中國人沒有增加消費。過去十年，中國家庭消費增長率接近8%，遠遠高於亞洲發展中國家的平均水平。只是因爲消費增速跟不上GDP的增速。
Now, says Mr Batson, “rebalancing can come from steady consumption growth and declining investment”.
白安儒表示，目前，“消費穩步增長，投資水平下降，這可能使中國實現再平衡。”
Some economists say the government needs to do more to promote this rebalancing in a country where citizens still save a far larger proportion of their incomes than developed economy counterparts.
有些經濟學家表示，中國政府需要採取更多措施來推動經濟再平衡。在中國，儲蓄佔收入的比例仍遠高於西方國家。
Even the enthusiastic shopper Ms Tang and her husband squirrel away more than half of their joint income of around Rmb10,000 a month, they say, for a home of their own, a nicer car and a hoped-for baby. “Chinese love to save money,” says Mr Wang.
即使像唐穎和她丈夫這麼愛購物的人，也會把他們總共約1萬元人民幣的月收入中的一半以上儲蓄起來。他們表示，他們要爲將來買房、換輛好車還有養孩子準備好錢。王永強表示：“中國人就愛存錢。”
Lower-income consumers also save fiercely. In the village of Wuti in northern Hebei province, house builder Li Moxiang and his farmer wife aim to set aside Rmb20,000 or more a year to help raise their future grandchild – even though stingy state-set interest rates mean such savings are constantly eroded by inflation.
低收入羣體也在使勁地存錢。在北方省份河北的吳提村，李茂湘（音）是個建築工，他妻子是農民，他們打算每年至少攢下2萬元人民幣，以幫助撫養未來的孫輩——即使國家設定的極低存款利率意味着，他們的儲蓄將一直受到通脹的侵蝕。
“We don’t buy much in the way of clothing and other things because we want to put money aside,” Mr Li says.
李茂湘表示，“我們因爲要存錢，都不怎麼買衣服和其他物品。”
A big motivation for such saving is lack of a social security system to cushion Chinese in old age or ill health. Serious illness or accident often spells household bankruptcy. For most rural people, children have to play the role of pension provider.
中國人存錢的一大動機在於，中國缺乏完善的社會保障制度，在他們年老或生病時提供支持。中國家庭如果有人得了大病或出了事故，經常會落得傾家蕩產。對於大多數農民而言，子女必須承擔起爲父母養老的責任。
In a report this week, the World Bank said fiscal measures to support consumption – including targeted tax cuts, social welfare spending and other social expenditures – should be Beijing’s top priority as it seeks to avert an economic “hard landing”.
世界銀行(World Bank)在本週發佈的一份報告中表示，由於中國政府尋求避免經濟“硬着陸”，刺激消費的財政措施——包括針對性的減稅、社會福利開支以及其他社會開支——應當成爲政府工作的重中之重。
Some economists would like to see mass privatisation to shift wealth out of the dominant and domineering state sector.
有些經濟學家希望政府實施大規模私有化，將財富從占主導地位、高高在上的國有部門中轉移出來。
Many Chinese would certainly like the chance to share a little more in the nation’s ever-more conspicuously displayed wealth.
在這個炫富行爲越來越盛行的國家，許多人肯定喜歡這種能夠讓他們多分享一點財富的機會。
In the gritty Hebei town of Langfang, migrant worker Duan Tingchun, 34, spends his days cleaning the glass fa?ade of the towering Wanda Plaza, home to an Imax cinema and shops including France’s Carrefour and Uniqlo of Japan.
在河北省廊坊市這個砂質化的地方，34歲農民工段廷春（音）的工作是爲萬達廣場清洗玻璃幕牆。萬達廣場裏有一家Imax電影院，並彙集了包括法國家樂福(Carrefour)和日本優衣庫(Uniqlo)在內的衆多商家。
Mr Duan makes Rmb160 a day he works – not paid if rain prevents cleaning – and on Friday was preparing for a gruelling bus ride south to the family farm to help bring in a harvest. He would like to spend more, he says, but has no illusions about his own limited ability to boost Chinese consumption. “If you don’t have much money, you can’t consume much,” he says.
段廷春幹一天活能掙160元人民幣，遇到雨天沒法清洗時，就賺不到錢。上週五他正準備踏上一段艱苦的旅途——坐長途大巴南下，回老家幫忙收割莊稼。他表示，他倒是想多花錢，但對自己刺激中國消費的有限能力不抱什麼幻想。“如果你本來就沒有多少錢，你使勁花也花不了多少。”譯者:邢嵬