發展中國家面臨經濟結構性放緩
Developing countries are facing a “structural slowdown” likely to last for years and are ceding their role as the world’s growth engine to more mature economies such as the US, according to the World Bank.
世界銀行(World Bank)稱，發展中國家面臨可能持續多年的“結構性放緩”，並將全球增長髮動機的角色讓給美國等更成熟的經濟體。The Washington-based bank yesterday lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 2.8 per cent, partly because the much-anticipated benefits of lower oil prices have been limited.
總部位於華盛頓的世行昨日把今年全球增長預測下調至2.8%，部分原因是許多人預期的較低油價帶來的好處迄今有限。
Seven years after the global financial crisis, high-income countries were resuming their role as drivers of international growth, the World Bank said in its twice-yearly report. By contrast, with the exception of India and a few others, the bank warned that developing economies such as China must confront an era of slower growth.
世行在每年發佈兩次的報告中表示，全球金融危機爆發七年後，高收入國家正在恢復其全球增長髮動機的角色。該行警告，相比之下，除印度及少數其他國家以外，中國等發展中經濟體必須應對增長較爲緩慢的時代。
The bank’s intervention comes amid mounting evidence that the steady boost the world economy has derived for years from the rise of countries such as Brazil and China is becoming a drag.
世行表態之際，越來越多的證據表明，巴西和中國等國崛起多年來給世界經濟帶來的穩定推動力，正變成一種拖累。After a sluggish start to the year “the recovery in high-income countries is expected to strengthen, while a broad-based slowdown appears to be under way in developing countries”, the bank said in its report.
世行在其報告中表示，在今年開局疲軟之後，“高收入國家的復甦預計會加強，而發展中國家似乎正經歷整體放緩”。The “structural slowdown” in developing economies such as China has been hit by a range of factors from lower commodity prices to stagnating “South-South” trading relationships between developing peers, Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s leading macroeconomic forecaster, said.
世行首席宏觀經濟預測師艾漢•科澤(Ayhan Kose)表示，中國等發展中經濟體的“結構性放緩”遭遇了一系列因素（從大宗商品價格降低，到發展中國家間的“南南”貿易關係陷入停滯）的衝擊。But despite its reservations about emerging markets growth, the World Bank said it expected most developing economies to weather the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated decision this year to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
不過，雖然對新興市場的增長持保留態度，但世行表示，預計多數發展中經濟體將平穩度過美聯儲(Fed)今年可能做出的加息決定。這將是美聯儲近十年來的首次加息決定。Mr Kose said a Fed rate increase was “an important risk” but added that challenges faced by emerging markets such as lower commodity prices were “not going to be changing any time soon”.
科澤表示美聯儲加息是“一個重要風險”。不過他補充說，新興市場面臨的大宗商品價格下滑等挑戰，“不會在短期內發生任何改變”。
