世界經濟前景 恐懼與希望並存
The world economy appears to be at a fork in the road. On one path, 2016 appears likely to witness a deterioration from the mediocre to the miserable; on the other is a happy continuation of the normalisation from the 2008-09 financial crisis, with a more balanced and sustainable global economy. No one is sure which path the world will follow; nor whether policy is sufficiently strong to influence the outcome.
世界經濟似乎正處在一個岔路口。走其中一條路，意味着2016年世界經濟狀況可能要從平庸惡化爲極糟；而走另一條，意味着自2008-09年金融危機以來的正常化進程將幸運地延續下去，全球經濟將變得更平衡、更具可持續性。沒人能確定世界將走哪條路；也沒人知道政策力度是否大到足以影響結果。
There is little doubt that the eyes of the world are sharply focused on the risks and challenges. Fears rose precipitously in the summer after China devalued its currency, highlighting concerns that the country’s economic prospects are deteriorating rapidly and recessions deepened in other former stars of the global economy such as Brazil and Russia. Global equity markets have just endured their worst quarter since 2011.
毫無疑問，全世界銳利的目光都聚焦在這些風險和挑戰上。恐懼在今夏人民幣貶值後急劇上升，突顯出人們對中國經濟前景正迅速惡化以及其他昔日全球經濟明星國家（如巴西、俄羅斯）衰退加深的擔憂。全球股市剛剛經歷了自2011年以來表現最糟的一個季度。
Alongside weak financial markets, capital has retreated towards havens in the developed world, commodity prices have plummeted and world trade growth remains stalled. China, not long ago the reliable engine of the world economy, is now seen as its greatest vulnerability, representing, as it does, 16 per cent of world output and almost 30 per cent of expected growth. “The key risk to global growth is a larger-than-expected slowdown in China,” according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
伴隨金融市場的疲弱，資本回撤到了位於發達世界的“避險港”，大宗商品價格一落千丈，世界貿易增長仍停滯不前。由於中國佔全球產出的16%、佔全球預期增長的近3 0%，不久前還是世界經濟可靠引擎的中國，如今被視爲世界經濟最大的薄弱之處。經合組織(OECD)稱：“全球增長的主要風險在於中國超出預期的增長放緩。”
With some investment banks such as Citi forecasting a global recession in 2016, officials are keen not to be caught napping as they were before the 2008 downturn.
在花旗(Citi)等投資銀行預測2016年出現全球經濟衰退之際，各國官員積極希望避免像2008年衰退到來之前那樣被打個措手不及。
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, says policies to address problems among the world’s leading economies are urgently needed at a“difficult and complex” time, since “downside risks to the outlook have increased, particularly for emerging market economies”.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，由於“經濟前景下行的風險已經增加——尤其是對於新興市場經濟體而言”，在此般“困難且複雜”的時刻，世界主要經濟體亟需對策來應對問題。
Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, warns that the troubles in China are signs that “we may now be entering the early stages of part three of the [global crisis] trilogy, the ‘emerging market’ crisis of 2015 onwards”.
英國央行(Bank of England)首席經濟學家安迪霍爾丹(Andy Haldane)警告稱，中國遭遇的麻煩表明“我們現在或許正在進入（全球危機）三部曲第三部分（即2015年起的‘新興市場’危機）的初始階段”。
A third crisis scenario — following that in the US and UK economies in 2008-09 and the eurozone in 2011-12 — would stem from dangers posed by the rise in Chinese debt since 2008. Private, non-financial debt reached 160 per cent of gross domestic product in the US in 2007 and almost 200 per cent in the UK before households and companies tightened their belts. China has already surpassed these levels, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.
繼2008-09年美英經濟體金融危機以及2011-12年歐元區危機後發生第三場危機，這種情景將源於2008年以來中國債務暴漲帶來的危險。在家庭、企業勒緊腰帶之前，2007年美國私人非金融債務達到了國內生產總值(GDP)的160%，英國的這一比例接近200%。根據國際清算銀行(BIS)的數據，中國早已超過了上述兩國的水平。
With growth slowing, perhaps far more rapidly than official Chinese statistics show, the ability to service and sustain such debt is in question. Defaults and huge losses could follow, sparking a vicious circle of fragility and bankruptcy in the financial sector, a squeeze on credit and yet weaker economic prospects. The rest of the world would not be able to ignore such a crisis, given China’s size, trade links and financial connections with other countries.
隨着增長放緩（放緩速度也許遠比中國官方統計數據顯示的更快），償付並維持這些債務的能力便成了問題。違約及鉅額損失可能隨之而來，引發金融部門脆弱性與破產的惡性循環，並導致信貸收緊，經濟前景更加黯淡。鑑於中國經濟的規模、它與其他國家的貿易及金融聯繫，世界其他國家可能無法忽視這樣一場危機。
Beijing’s mixed messages and failed attempts to prevent its stock market bubble bursting over the summer have not inspired confidence that it is uniquely placed to avoid disaster.
北京方面發出的含混不清的訊息以及今夏阻止股市泡沫破裂的努力失敗，無法激發人們對於中國得天獨厚、能夠避免災難的信心。
But for all these genuine and plausible fears, the world is not yet being buffeted by another economic storm. Despite contested Chinese economic statistics showing growth still at an annual rate of 7 per cent, there is undeniable rebalancing under way in China from construction and heavy machinery investment towards consumption and services. In many of the other large world economies, the picture and the economic data are far from disastrous.
雖然存在這麼多切實、貌似可信的擔憂，但世界還未遭受一場新的經濟風暴的衝擊。雖然中國受到質疑的經濟數據仍顯示經濟年增速爲7%，但不可否認，中國正在從建築與重機械業投資向消費和服務再平衡。世界其他許多大型經濟體的境況和經濟數據也遠算不上很糟。
Still the world’s most important economy, the US is contemplating raising interest rates for the first time in a decade. This reflects the maturity of its economic recovery and its success in generating employment growth. The unemployment rate has fallen to historically normal levels. Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve chair, explained the decision not to raise rates in September as reflecting increased uncertainty in the global economy. Ms Yellen has made it clear that she sees strong prospects when she looks at the US, as do her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates.
仍爲世界最重要經濟體的美國正在考慮啓動10年來的首次加息。這反映了美國經濟復甦已經成熟，實現就業增長的努力也已成功。美國失業率已降至歷史正常水平。美聯儲(fed)主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)對爲何決定9月不加息的解釋是全球經濟不確定性增加。耶倫已明確表示，她認爲美國經濟前景強勁，負責確定利率的美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)同僚也持同樣看法。
“Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate that achieving these conditions [of maximum employment and stable inflation] will likely entail an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening,” Ms Yellen said in September.
“當前，包括我自己在內的多數聯邦公開市場委員會成員預計，達到（充分就業和穩定通脹的）條件後，我們可能需要在今年晚些時候邁出提高聯邦基金利率的第一步，隨後漸進式收緊，”耶倫9月表示。
In Europe, many economic indicators are looking more positive than at any time since the eurozone crisis started in 2011. Greece showed this year that it no longer has the power to derail the rest of the single currency area and consumers are enjoying a rare increase in their net incomes following the decline in commodity prices across the world.
在歐洲，許多經濟指標看起來比2011年歐元區危機爆發以來的任何時候都更加積極。希臘今年已表現出它不再有能力讓歐元區其他國家經濟脫軌，而隨着全球大宗商品價格下跌，消費者正在享受少有的淨收入增加。
Monetary and fiscal policy is standing by, ready to react to slower global growth prospects, with further monetary stimulus likely in coming months.
貨幣、財政政策隨時待命，準備應對全球經濟增長放緩前景，未來幾個月還可能出臺進一步貨幣政策刺激。
As a big oil and metals importer, China gains from the fall in commodity prices, as does India — the world’s fastest growing big economy. Many of the better managed commodity-exporting economies have benefited from currency depreciation, offsetting the domestic hit from lower prices without raising inflation significantly.
作爲石油與金屬的大型進口國，中國從大宗商品價格下跌中獲益，同樣受益的還有印度——世界增長最快的大型經濟體。許多治理較好的大宗商品出口國受益於貨幣貶值，在沒有顯著提高通脹率的情況下抵消了降價對國內造成的衝擊。
Julian Jessop of analysts Capital Economics thinks that the shocked market reaction to the events of the summer has been far too sudden and excessive: “The upshot is that rather than the turmoil being a new threat, we think that the consensus is playing catch-up with trends in place for several years.”
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)分析師朱利安瀠≧湽(Julian Jessop)認爲，市場對今夏事件的震驚反應太過突然和過度：“因此，我們認爲，主流觀點在追趕已經存在多年的趨勢，而不是說這種動盪是一種新的威脅。”
If true, rather than the world entering a third leg of a global financial crisis, it is more a continuation of global growth at roughly the average level of the past 30 years, with some countries doing better than others: normality rather than extraordinary times.
如果真是如此，世界是在繼續以約爲過去30年平均水平的速度增長（其中有的國家做得好一些，有的差一些），而非正進入全球金融危機的第三階段，換句話說，是常態，而非非常時期。
As for China, if this pragmatic view holds true, the authorities will make errors but also progress in rebalancing the economy from investment towards consumption.
對中國而言，如果這種務實的觀點站得住腳的話，那麼中國當局在推動經濟由投資轉向消費再平衡的過程中會犯錯，但也會取得進展。
The world in 2016 does not need to take an extreme path, says Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit — though there are many options available.
裕信銀行(UniCredit)首席經濟學家埃裏克尼爾森(Erik Nielsen)說，儘管面臨許多選項，但2016年的世界不必選擇一條極端道路。
“We economists love to forecast smooth paths, while drama queens and headline grabbers love to predict imminent collapse,” he says.
“我們經濟學家喜歡預測未來道路是一片坦途，而一驚一乍者和危言聳聽者喜歡預測崩潰即將來臨，”他說。
“Maybe the safe forecast is one in between the two: bumpy, but reasonably well managed.”
“也許保險的預測介於兩者之間：未來道路崎嶇不平，但情況在合理可控範圍內。”
